German Development During the BT (part 1)
Updated July 16th
Energy:
Germany is already a world leader in developing green energy technology with a well developed plan- the already much lauded ‘
Energiewende outlining key goals and specific technical, political, financial and business mechanisms for achieving those goals. In OTL, this has already been highly effective and Germany already produces 18.9% of its energy needs from domestic renewable energies.
the International Energy Agency said:
24 May 2013
In a review of German energy policies launched today, the International Energy Agency commended Germany for its commitment to developing a low-carbon energy system over the long term – in particular its comprehensive energy strategy, ambitious renewable energy targets and plans to reduce energy consumption. The report noted that Germany has successfully implemented a broad suite of robust energy policies across all sectors notably in energy efficiency and climate change.
The Energiewende includes the following key goals:
- greenhouse gas reductions: 80–95% reduction by 2050
- renewable energy targets: 60% share by 2050 (renewables broadly defined as hydro, solar and wind power)
- energy efficiency: electricity efficiency up by 50% by 2050
- associated research and development drive
A major part of the approach has been to incentivize development and implementation of new technologies at both macro and micro scale-levels as well as efforts to increase efficiency. Currently much of the renewable energy production in Germany takes place on the ‘small business’ level or even residentially with surplus electricity being sold back to the grid. Larger specialized operations, including those where the government acts as a major shareholder, will also be funded. Improvements to the electricity grid are absolutely critical to maintain efficiency and to allow distribution from new sources and these will be carefully timed to maximize cost : fuel efficiency.
Technically, the Energiewende depends on the development of renewable energy sources such as wind, solar, and biogas. Much of our current budget and a slowly ever-increasing proportion of our future budget will be allocated to this. We are a current forerunner in green technology development and foresee continuing to be so.
That said, Fusion power development will also proceed, with Germany (alongside France if her player is willing) picking up the portion of the USA budget dedicated to ITER when the later pulls out to focus on Polywell technology. ITER is:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ITER. Currently it is the world’s most advanced and sophisticated (and importantly best funded by a longshot- with funding coming from a variety of sources including the EU, India, Japan, China, Russia, South Korea, and currently but not in the future if I understand correctly, the USA) fusion power research program. I have outlined it further in the technology section but the long and short of it is that a French-located, EU operated prototype facitliy may be able to begin commercial production of fusion power by as early as 2033. As a major shareholder in this project, Germany will naturally gain from this project and distribute the energy to its grid. A series of third generation fusion plants (PROTO) will be developed domestically within Germany and are slated to return power by the early 2040s.
Despite Germany’s Energiewende program, to avoid huge increases in energy costs and associated economy slowdown, in the short term German dependence on foreign sources of energy is projected to increase. This is because despite substantial increases in domestic renewable and green energy sources, domestic gas and coal production has long peaked and is projected to deplete by the mid 2020s.
Germany will necessarily be dependent on the import of foreign fossil energy. Policy will favor the diversification of energy sources and their transit. Our focus will be five-fold- the North Atlantic, the Middle-East, Central Asia, North Africa, and Russia.
Currently Germany already controls much of the European energy supply and its distribution and will continue to so for the foreseeable future as it maintains it dominant economic and political position within the European Union and with extra-continental trading partners.
Oil For the immediate future Germany will continue to be highly dependent upon oil produced from offshore drilling in the North Sea and Northern Atlantic. German oil production will continue to invest in new offshore drilling for the near foreseeable future. We will also continue our partnership with nations of the Middle-east and North Africa especially Libya who is already the number one supplier of crude oil to Germany. Germany’s relative good relations and ‘soft-power’ investments will be used to help make this possible. New pipelines (see below) will mean a greater role for Germany in the Iraq/Iran oil markets. We will also work with local partners in central Asia, in partnership with the Turks (in return providing political support for Turkish entry to the EU) to help access energy wealth in the Central Asian states. In the next decade (5-10 years), Germany will increasingly look to new partners in Africa including Chad and Cameroon and German state-backed investments will fund the construction of pipelines through Cameroon and to the Gulf of Guinea to supply domestic and European markets.
Natural Gas Because of the difficulties in transporting natural gas, diversifying energy dependence necessary requires the development of new pipelines. The Nord Stream Pipeline, which came on-stream on 8 November 2011, is therefore of prime importance to Germany and Europe, making it possible for the first time to buy Russian gas directly from Russia. The construction of a Southern Corridor will also provide a key new source of gas supply. The aim of the Southern Corridor is to transport gas from the Caspian region, Iraq and the broader Middle East to Europe and Germany. This project will be implemented with the planned Nabucco pipeline, for example, which is to have an annual capacity of 30 billion cubic metres when completed and is to transport gas from the Caspian region or Iran/Iraq to Baumgarten in Austria via Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary.
African Solar As part of the energy transformation, Germany will work in conjunction with willing partners in (Spain, Italy, and) North Africa to fund solar production facilities, turning net importers of energy into net exporters. As major investors in these projects, Germany will negotiate favorable purchase terms. An example of an existing project can be found
here. The increased German military (see below) will be used to guarantee these sorts of projects and to secure energy for Germany (and its African and European allies).
Wave We will continue to develop, though to a lesser degree than solar and others, the potential of wave energy in the baltic. See this article:
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148106002795 Basically if Germany can work with Denmark, together we have excellent potential for wave-based energy in the straits and on Germany's northern shore- we should take advantage of this.
Throughout, Germany’s relative trade surpluses will be used, in the near future, to develop a significant stockpile of oil and gas reserves to offset the effects of sharp decreases in availability or increases in demand. As renewable resource energy becomes more and more affordable (due to significant continuous funding), these deficiencies will mean less and less and we can move to a more independent energy footing
Ultimately as Germany’s green energy development gain technical and manufacturing efficiency and cost-effectiveness, it will become a major German export product and a major portion of our trade export. Ultimately many other nations will need to develop alternative sources of energy as fossil fuel prices continue to rise and Germany will have (and already has OTL) a head-start on its development and manufacture. This will help fuel our growth and trade in the medium term and, in addition to repaying a portion of the German tax-payer’s and business-owners investments, will also drive further research and development of domestic energy technologies.
Military:
For the near future, the relative proportion of the GDP spent on the German military (Bundeswehr) will remain under 2% (its currently something like 1.3%). This means that much of German foreign influence will be based on soft-power, as both the premiere European economy and a major net supplier of foreign aid. Within the next decade, as resources are more scarce, a larger proportion of the GDP will go to the military until by the year 2030 it will have almost quadrupled to 5.0%.
The Bundeswehr is currently, in general is among the world's most technologically advanced and best-supplied militaries, as befits Germany's overall economic prosperity and significant military industry.(
ref) and the focus on quality over quantity will be continued in the near future. In 2015, the, Streitkräftebasis (Joint Support Service), will be greatly expanded with a cyber-security division and a major component of the expanding budget outlined above will be spent on funding cyber security (until by 2025 cyberwarfare is funded to the tune of approx. 1% of the GDP, making it nearly on par with the Lutwaffe and larger than the navy). Its primary goals will be 1) to safeguard Germany’s military and civilian infrastructure and 2) industries from foreign espionage and sabotage and to 3) illicitly conduct our own industrial espionage to help maintain our research and development edge and to better compete in high-tech world markets. Its secondary goals will be to prepare for the systemic shut down of a nation or groups communications (including satellites), financial vehicles and assets, and both civilian and military infrastructure via computing-based attacks as part of a defensive response to attack either upon itself or its allies.
The significant increase in military spending will be felt especially in the computing sectors of Germany both in academia and industry and within the Streitkräftebasis itself. As a result Germany will be at the forefront of computing developments and one of the first nation to develop a nation-wide optical computing infrastructure (or whatever technology the moderator deems appropriate).
Other areas of increased funding will be hardening of electronic communications both long and short range, interception or interruption of foreign military and civilian communications (including the establishment of a wide number of SIGINT planetary and satellite facilities), and a focus on aerial superiority.
As a side-effect of our focus on computing, aeronautics, and hardened communications, Germany will take a leadership role in the development of pilotless craft. Despite this technological competence, the Luftwaffe will incorporate relatively few pilotless craft into its force compared to other powers. (This is a consequence of having seen the successes of the Streitkräftebasis optical cyber-attacks in intercepting and rerouting communications signals including those feeding from and into pilotless drones).
Lastly, Germany, as world security becomes a greater concern, will realign European space programs away from exploration or a trip to Mars or whatever and towards security of the near orbit. This means the development of reusable air-fighter-like aero-orbital craft capable of short trips to the near orbit to potentially fire upon satellites or other near orbit spacecraft and to safety return to earth. The goal will be to develop unmanned versions by 2027 and a piloted version by 2035. Initially the project will be developed as part of the larger European space effort but as the military nature becomes more and more apparent, Germany will ‘go-it alone’ or in conjunction with major world military allies (the USA? France?). Funding of our computer espionage programs will be critical in maintaining our edge and to learn from others vis-à-vis this project.