The Oil resource - civ4 and peak oil ?

in real world, peak oil is imminent
the era of human history, which will be known as the age of oil, is drawing to ends end.
since capitalism is incapable of long - term planning, the change to post - oil era will be cataclysmic:
starvation, end of cities, collapse of the very fabric of human civilization, return to medieval way of life.
drastic reduction in population due to petty wars over food and water, famine, disease, pure weather conditions.
return to slavery, feudalism, vassalage, theocracy.

so suppose a scenario in game, some sort of earth map, civilizations in various stages of modern era, military equipment and diplomacy similar to todays.
suddenly we delete all the oil resources
how well would the game simulate what happened in real life?
take this as a peak oil scenario brainstorm

military
here the simulation is the closest.
+ supposedly, the most modern technology can be sustained on uranium. but most units would not be available.

- we would still be able to build modern infantry units. this would only be possible for some time, since the advanced methods would not be available. we would see return to rifleman, or even musket man
/ fix by all modern units requiring "manufacturing plant", that needs oil to run
/ suppose the civs have just enough oil for existing tanks and ships to still run
/ fix aircraft need oil

health and food
- here the simulation is failing drastically
/ oil is a key resource for modern food production. it fuels heavy machinery and advanced soil enrichments are made from it. oil by itself is responsible for 80% increase of food production.
/ fix remove biology bonus, supermarket needs oil
/ fix industrial era onward: all tiles -1food
/ fix oil +2 food per grassland/plains/floodplains tile for cities with access to oil (very artificial and cumbersome way to fix this, but I don´t have a better idea

/ fix population unhealthiness is 1.75x industrial onward. oils gives +6 health, more +4 with supermarket.
(oil works both ways. it does reduce the healthy environment, but also enables bigger life comfort, medicines, etc. when oil ends, you will have cleaner health, but you will also see that medical supplies and facilities collapsed, lower variety of food, more coal being burn, worse working and living conditions)

economy, trade, diplomacy
/ corporations cannot just make oil. corporations disabled or their function more aligned with the realism of the scenario
/ trade is drastically reduced.
/ some resources are valued more - rebalanced many buildings and units will suddenly require certain resources to be built at all ie: factory: coal, iron, copper. forge: copper, wood.
/ most buildings and units: wood or iron or copper
/ fix happiness in all cities "we remember pre-post-oil days": -20
/ fix all food sources happiness +2
/ fix starved desperate man revolting - create barbarian random gunpowder/me lee/archery units near city
/ fix unit maintenance *3

new resource: wood
/ all forests provide. units and buildings need various amounts of forests resources to be build

research
/ scientific victory for creating artificial oil (not by corp)
/ techs are "unlearned" if they are not utilized for x game turns. you can revert the industrial era maluses mentioned previously this way.


/fix all civilizations -5 modifier "it´s survival of the fittest now"
/ raging barbarians staging revolts and uprisings with leftover military technology
/ generals taking over unhappy and unhealthy cities
/ big empires being threatened by being split up
/ VC are reset. and updated:
(mission to IO for hydrogen fuel - space)
(one with new shape of things - cultural)
(artificial miracle - scientific)
(B.F.Skinner type utopia society - diplomatic)
(sustainable development: you have reverted to ancient era and survived 200 turns or won a time victory - you get more score each time you revert)


/ diseases creating mutant empires
/ post apocalyptic techs trees
/ global warming drastically worsening the already bad crop yields (deserts, oceans destroying coastal cities
/ natural catastrophes occurring
/ as you revert in technology, cultural borders shrink and animals and mutated animals become a concern


this is to simulate the lack of resources in post-oil society

Citation needed.

Who not just mod in a new tech: "fuel cells / hydrogen combustion", or perhaps "advanced batteries" and continue as before? Just as will most certainly happen in real life...

I wasn't aware that oil was the only type of energy and that modern rifles and assault rifles require oil to function.

They do: you have to oil them constantly so that they are shining!
Actually, I was thinking semi-seriously about the mod suggested by the OP, and came up with this: during the game, there´s a chance (say 10%) of a meteor impact on the planet, creating a huge crater and slowly turning the world into nuclear winter. How would you make your civilization survive? Low food resources, polluted fresh water, forests/jungles disappearing, etc etc.
Thing is, most players would probably just reload to avoid the armageddon!

If someone can code this, I'd love to play it!

Good idea for a mod.
Though "peak oil" is a myth created by the oil companies in order to raise oil prices. In reality I would hazard a guess that only 20% of all sources of oil on the Earth have even been discovered. The true problem with oil and all fossil fuels is the emissions generated by using them as fuel and the effects on soil using petroleum as an additive in fertilizer.
I understand my comments may be controversial, so I will further explain. Most theories involving "Peak Oil" only take into account OPEC's production capacity, which yes by around 2050 may completely run out. However OPEC's reserves are actually only a fraction of the oil in the world and is only so important today because they produce more oil than any other group, however that is also because they choose to. There are vast oil reserves inside of the United States and the Arctic circle that remain untouched, as well as many other areas. Also as the current wells begin to fall in production more exploratory efforts will continue in areas that because of the high availability of cheaper oil produced in the Middle East are not profitable today but with the loss of cheap production will create an incentive to drill in areas previously thought too expensive too.
Oil is going to become much more expensive, but it isn't going away and we certainly aren't there in replacing it as oil and other fossil fuels still account for at least 75% of our energy needs.

Chronos I said:

Good idea for a mod.
Though "peak oil" is a myth created by the oil companies in order to raise oil prices.

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Peak oil is not a myth.

Chronos I said:

In reality I would hazard a guess that only 20% of all sources of oil on the Earth have even been discovered.

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Your figure is almost the reverse of reality. About 80% of all oil resources have been discovered and have been or are being exploited.

In the 1940s the US was a major oil exporter. Nowadays it's an oil importer. Almost all American onshore oil has been sucked dry.

actually i guess military you are exagerating... middle ages??? common.... muskets? ak47 dont need oil at all in making.... transporting materials will require coal instead of oil and will require longer time transporting things....

Ambidexter said:

Peak oil is not a myth.



Your figure is almost the reverse of reality. About 80% of all oil resources have been discovered and have been or are being exploited.

In the 1940s the US was a major oil exporter. Nowadays it's an oil importer. Almost all American onshore oil has been sucked dry.

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Considering the fact that only about 30% of the surface of the Earth has actually been explored, I would consider it quite naive to believe that 80% of all oil resources have been discovered.
You also have to understand that oil exists in many forms that with the current price of oil makes it uneconomical to extract. For instance the actual largest natural reserve of oil in the world exists in the form of shale in the state of Colorado, however it will probably not begin to be extracted until oil reaches more than $10 a gallon.

In the modern world, oil has 3 main uses: plastic, fertilizer, and transportation (cars). Electricity is actually a very small use of oil, only about 2% of electricity in the US comes from oil-burning plants.

I like your idea making the farm bonus depend on access to oil (at least, I like it from a simulation perspective, I think it would be terrible for gameplay to make so much depend on oil). For the rest, I'd suggest making railroads and ship movement depend on oil, and having plastic give access to a "plastic plant" improvement that improves productivity, but only with access to oil.

Again, I think those are bad changes as far as making it a fun game, but it would be an interesting simulation.

pi-r8 said:

In the modern world, oil has 3 main uses: plastic, fertilizer, and transportation (cars). Electricity is actually a very small use of oil, only about 2% of electricity in the US comes from oil-burning plants.

I like your idea making the farm bonus depend on access to oil (at least, I like it from a simulation perspective, I think it would be terrible for gameplay to make so much depend on oil). For the rest, I'd suggest making railroads and ship movement depend on oil, and having plastic give access to a "plastic plant" improvement that improves productivity, but only with access to oil.

Again, I think those are bad changes as far as making it a fun game, but it would be an interesting simulation.

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railroad would not be dependent on oil..... the world would see huge return toward railroad. actually there should be bonus road movement with oil.....

thats the whole poin...... current real life gameplay is horrible and after peak oil ot will be even worse

Nicol.Bolas said:

railroad would not be dependent on oil..... the world would see huge return toward railroad. actually there should be bonus road movement with oil.....

thats the whole poin...... current real life gameplay is horrible and after peak oil ot will be even worse

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yes I know, but simply removing the road bonus would be pointless in civ because everybody just covers all the roads with railroads. Removing the railroad bonus would be a better simulation of the effect of losing oil.

Nicol.Bolas said:

railroad would not be dependent on oil..... the world would see huge return toward railroad. actually there should be bonus road movement with oil.....

thats the whole poin...... current real life gameplay is horrible and after peak oil ot will be even worse

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Are you trolling us or do you actually believe this nonsense? It's hard to decide, but I sincerely hope you're just doing a good job at trolling .

Someone literally just told you that oil is a very small % of world power...and you ignored it.

On top of that, alternative methods such as electric cars already exist, while supposedly cella energy has a non-oil hydrogen fuel they can produce at $1.50/gallon (I am extremely doubtful of the price/gallon, but don't doubt they've the fuel design). At some point, this "oil peak" will get to the point where it costs more than alternatives + switching cost, and then you're going to see a hard shift toward some other fuel source used mainstream. If that $1.50 estimate were somehow accurate this will happen very soon, but even if it costs 2x that it could easily beat out oil if prices continue to rise.

As for the mod, in case this isn't a trolljoke:

here the simulation is the closest.
+ supposedly, the most modern technology can be sustained on uranium. but most units would not be available.

Click to expand...

I'm willing to bet your understanding of modern military technology is painfully lacking. I'm not going to claim I'm an expert in this field, but modern rifles do *not* require oil. Rifles? Muskets? What a joke. It hurts to even think of the implications if you're serious.

Similarly, it makes little-to-no sense for artillery to require oil (and in fact in-game it does not, nor do infantry or even mech infantry) as they're essentially better-designed cannons. Same goes for SAM Infantry (rocket launchers can probably find an alternative fuel source).

Basically this would allow end-game class units regardless (I've beaten AIs that had every tech in the game with just infantry/arty/SAM on immortal).

- If you don't think alternative methods could be used in food production, you're dreaming. Maybe you're in the business of selling oil? Otherwise this thread makes no sense.

You're making a mod on an extremely flawed premise and throwing balance even further off-kilter than the base game...or more like asking for one that somehow conforms to your strange conception of how the world and civ work.

TheMeInTeam said:

Are you trolling us or do you actually believe this nonsense? It's hard to decide, but I sincerely hope you're just doing a good job at trolling .

Someone literally just told you that oil is a very small % of world power...and you ignored it.

On top of that, alternative methods such as electric cars already exist, while supposedly cella energy has a non-oil hydrogen fuel they can produce at $1.50/gallon (I am extremely doubtful of the price/gallon, but don't doubt they've the fuel design). At some point, this "oil peak" will get to the point where it costs more than alternatives + switching cost, and then you're going to see a hard shift toward some other fuel source used mainstream. If that $1.50 estimate were somehow accurate this will happen very soon, but even if it costs 2x that it could easily beat out oil if prices continue to rise.

As for the mod, in case this isn't a trolljoke:



I'm willing to bet your understanding of modern military technology is painfully lacking. I'm not going to claim I'm an expert in this field, but modern rifles do *not* require oil. Rifles? Muskets? What a joke. It hurts to even think of the implications if you're serious.

Similarly, it makes little-to-no sense for artillery to require oil (and in fact in-game it does not, nor do infantry or even mech infantry) as they're essentially better-designed cannons. Same goes for SAM Infantry (rocket launchers can probably find an alternative fuel source).

Basically this would allow end-game class units regardless (I've beaten AIs that had every tech in the game with just infantry/arty/SAM on immortal).

- If you don't think alternative methods could be used in food production, you're dreaming. Maybe you're in the business of selling oil? Otherwise this thread makes no sense.

You're making a mod on an extremely flawed premise and throwing balance even further off-kilter than the base game...or more like asking for one that somehow conforms to your strange conception of how the world and civ work.

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sorry, but you are greatly underestimating the impact of oil on modern manufacturing, infrastructure, chemistry and logistics.

I disagree about better designed cannons and rifles.
these modern weaopons require very rare materials to be built and put together and without oil based ligistics and manufacture it just wouldnt be possible.

you can make a musket home, but not a homing missile or modern assault rifle + ammo

Oil can be synthesized. If there would be lack of oil, controlled nuclear fussion would already have provided us with all the energy we would want for the next 100000 years plus or minus a few years.

But luckily civ is far from a simulation. It's a game with some wrong ideas but quite a good game if you don't take it to serious. The game is designed to learn you some tricks then you try to exploit them. After that its game over if you don't want to try any mods.

Unfortunately, all modern industrial production is totally dependent on oil, because transportation depends on it. Without transportation, you can't connect the complex chains of today's production - resources -> factories -> consumers. However, many industries are directly dependent on oil, to name a few:

- agriculture - intensive methods we use depend on phosphate-based fertilizers that use natural gas in production. Transportation of fertilizers and machinery is completely oil-dependent. It's no coincidences that when oil price rises, food price rises too (like in 2008 or now)
- pharmaceutic industry - many chemicals use carbohydrates of various lengths as input. Also, sanitary materials have plastic packaging
- plastics - we use it for everything

Without cheap oil, there is no globalized trade network - so gross food importers like China would face famines.

And about peak oil - clear your facts. Peak oil is not an opinion, or theory, or religious sect, it's an observed phenomenon. US oil production peaked in 70s and is in decline since then. North sea oil (Brent) has peaked and is in decline since 2000. Many countries turned from exporters to importers (Egypt, Indonesia, China). Similar to localized peaks, there will be (or already is) a global peak one day, and after that the global production will enter a period of terminal decline.

If you want references, I got tons, I have been studying it for years. The original concept was formulated by a geologist - and is opposed by economists. That should tell you something.

Finally - look at the official IEA 2010 Outlook:



If you look correctly, you should see the peak clearly - because that growing area of "oil resources yet to be found and developed" is just a wishful thinking, a high-school style correction to "make the graph right". The number of oil discoveries is dwindling since 1960 - there is no way future finds, which tend to be smaller, of lower quality and less accessible could offset the production decline of the old fields.

Kamamura said:

Unfortunately, all modern industrial production is totally dependent on oil, because transportation depends on it.

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Transportation depends on energy. Industries could be using oil but with plenty of energy oil can de made from plastics or from CO and H2 (and there are more methods).
If the world oil reservers are depleted (or nearly) huge amounts of money will be pumped into projects like ITER. Energy in abundance.

But unfortunaly large oil companies have enough power to stop other technologies being used as large scale alternative for the combustion engine. If oil companies fall there is a good change certain countries will collapse too. It goes deep. Plus oil is quite cheap yet. No need to invest a lot of money.

So no need to be dramatic here.

Using pure civ4 logic, if you can build battleships without oil and iron, or tanks without iron, you can certainly make an assault rifle (how much plastic is in an AK47 or G3 anyway?)

you can make a musket home, but not a homing missile or modern assault rifle + ammo

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Just how is being able to build weapons at home relevant to peak oil in any way? But i'll bite.

Assault rifles and similar weapons are very much in the realms of an individuals capability to build, as long as they have access to a lathe and milling machine, both of which can be run off electric.
A guy from New Zealand actually managed to build a cruise missile out of off the shelf components .
The real obstacles for individuals building these things is the access to machinery/materials (cash!), technical knowhow, desire to build them and time It has nothing to do with having or not having oil!

Besides, oil isn't going to suddenly vanish one day without warning, and a variety of alternative power sources are already availble, they are just waiting for further development. Besides as has been mentioned synthetic fuels can, and are being made.