China's rising influence in Asia

China's leadership has become visible in small but telling ways. Premier Wen Jiabao was clearly the star, for instance, at an Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit conference in Laos in November. Lower-ranking ASEAN diplomats have begun to turn to Chinese colleagues for guidance during international meetings, according to a senior foreign diplomat with long experience at such Asian gatherings.

"I was struck by how naturally, even at the working level, the other Asians looked to China and how naturally China played that role," the diplomat said, noting that only a few years ago, Chinese diplomats were viewed as outsiders.

The change also comes across in bigger and more formal ways. In particular, China has taken the lead in organizing an East Asian summit conference for next November that, according to Chinese and other observers, will formalize Chinese regional leadership in several aspects.

A senior Chinese diplomat said it had not been decided whether the United States will be invited to attend and, if so, in what capacity. That the question of U.S. participation is even on the table dramatizes the shift in Asia's diplomatic landscape.

As envisioned by the Chinese Foreign Ministry (news - web sites), the summit deliberately frames participation on a country-by-country basis, dispersing ASEAN's combined weight and enhancing China's role as first among equals. "It's very subtle, but it could be very important," the senior Chinese Foreign Ministry official said.

The ASEAN countries -- Brunei, Burma, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam -- increasingly have begun to deal with China individually rather than as a bloc. As a result, an association that began with U.S. encouragement in 1967 in large measure to fend off Communist Chinese influence has evolved into a forum through which China exercises its regional leadership.

Other examples of Chinese leadership include the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a security forum comprising China, Russia and four former Soviet republics along China's northwest borders. As a part of this grouping, China's formerly standoffish military recently held anti-terrorism exercises with Kazakhstan and plans exercises next fall with the Russian military.


But China's new face has been most apparent in its dealings with the ASEAN countries, mainly because of the economic equation. At China's initiative, for instance, ASEAN countries and China in December agreed to create a free-trade zone by 2010, which would further integrate neighboring countries into China's orbit.

Trade between China and the 10 ASEAN countries has increased about 20 percent a year since 1990, and the pace has picked up in the last several years. Bilateral trade hit $78.2 billion in 2003, up 42.8 percent from the previous year. Chinese and ASEAN officials said the figure was about $100 billion and rising by the end of 2004.

"This is the locomotive that will bring growth for the Asian economies," said Leong, the professor who, in addition to his day job at a local branch of Nottingham University, advises the Associated Chinese Chambers of Commerce and Industry of Malaysia on how to make the most of the new situation.

Partly because 25 percent of its population is ethnic Chinese, Malaysia has been one of the major beneficiaries of China's growth. It exported only $1.2 billion annually in goods to China a decade ago. That figure hit $6 billion in 2003 and reached $6.4 billion in the first 10 months of 2004, according to the Chinese and Malaysian governments.

"It all depends on your mindset," said Callum Chen, a Malaysian businessman whose company markets its underwear in 30 stores around Beijing and Shanghai. "The rise of China can be threatening. Or it can be an opportunity."

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This view has come into focus particularly over the last year, when U.S. diplomacy has seemed preoccupied with Iraq (news - web sites) or anti-terrorism and China increasingly has asserted its pre-eminence.

"There is now this feeling that we have to consult the Chinese," said Abdul Razak Baginda of the Malaysian Strategic Research Center. He added, "We have to accept some degree of Chinese leadership, particularly in light of the lack of leadership elsewhere."

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By expanding its activity abroad, China inevitably has bumped against existing international relationships. Japan, with its extensive economic relationships around the region, so far has most keenly felt this aspect of China's rising influence. But Japan has never been in a position to exercise the regional leadership that China has assumed.

Although teenagers across Asia follow Japanese fads and read Japanese comics, its cultural power has been no match for China's, which is exported through language ties, entrenched overseas communities and traditional philosophies. In addition, Japan's role as a ruthless military occupier during World War II created a legacy that still haunts the region.

During the days of war and Japanese dominance, for instance, allied forces fought to prevent Tokyo from constructing a railroad from southern China through Vietnam, Laos and down to Singapore as a conduit for oil supplies. Now, Tao remarked, China has announced plans to build just such a railway.

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Maybe Im just ignorant, but to me China IS Asia. All other Asian nations revolve around its center of gravity.

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airrahul said:

East Asia you mean. India certainly doesn't revolve around it.

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