Another 'What if' scenario (Chinese navigation)

Rambuchan

Rambuchan

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We often see threads in here which pose us with a 'what if?' historical scenario. Well I came across this article in my Saturday papers session. This is from The Economist. Debating fodder underlined in red. Current affairs point underlined in green.



Also worth mentioning, I think someone has made a Civ3 scenario based on this man's achievements.
 
The article made the point I was thinking - the recalling of the Chinese fleet was indicative of a larger problem in China at the time: there was no incentive for competition. China's monolithic culture has been both its virtue and its curse. Little, competitive countries like those in Europe may come and go, but China will remain. And then, on the other hand, without so many little competitors, the Orient fell behind in innovation and exploration.

And as for the current affairs point, I don't believe the situation is quite the same today. While the Party is every bit as repressive as the Emperor was, there is now incentive for development and private enterprise, as well as a willingness to interact with the rest of the world.
 
Good article. :thumbsup: My only gripe is the last paragraph. Must they assign a sinister motive to anything modern day China does? :rolleyes: Zheng He is honored by Chinese everywhere, even the "good guys" in Taiwan, Hongkong or overseas communities! :gripe:

Rant over, back on topic. We may never know what could have been. Of the Ming emperors, Yunglo was the only capable one, and he was the one who sponsored Zheng He's expeditions. Once he died, the subsequent emperors undid all those expeditionary achievements.

What a waste! :mad: They were bloody unrivaled then. If they had continued the world as we know it will be completely different. Those effete pooves with their petty political machinations and power struggles! :aargh: Not realizing how much more profitable conquest and colonization can be.
 
well, i'm sure if they saw Europe at the time they would be really encouraged to go conquer it :p
 
They saw Southeast Asia, India and the Middle East. In the 1400s. Those were not poor and backward at the time. I would be tempted to conquer them (if I were in Zheng He's position). But no, not the short-sighted Ming scholar-offficials... :rolleyes:
 
Yes the whole article struck me with a great sense of disappointment. Mostly because the expeditions were cut short but also of the mentality which sought to confine them.

I've been aware of these expeditions already. I've also read of Hindu and Arab mariners, prior to, during and after these periods. You can see their handy work in the populations, languages, scripts and religions in SE Asia. Asia was a fabulously wealthy and powerful place in 15th century. In the same spirit as European colonial power sought to 'gift' their great achievements on to the world, I can think of many gifts these Chinese (also Indian and Arab) mariners could have spread to the world from their empires.

As for the current affairs point, I agree with Dann, I think it is a somewhat inappropriate conclusion to draw. It's more a twist in the writing than a worthwhile comment. I think China has a good grip on things at present and those suspicions and fears will not be realised.
 
An interesting read, but I was aware of this, more or so. More or so, because I'm pretty sure that what I read took place in the XIIIth century, or to say it as I recall it, during the 1200s. Which is 200 years before what this article says. I remember that (in what I read) it soon became a crime to sail the seas (you could be executed for that !). But indeed at some point during the "Middle Ages", the Chinese Empire was stronger than the European nations. The article I read made the assumptions that the cause for the brutal ending in overseas activities was inner problems.

About the "what if", I wonder if China would have been strong enough to reach Europe and dominate it. It's not that we're next door, but you never know.
 
About the 'what if': I doubt the Chinese would have gone for Europe. If we think what the Europeans did, they went straight for the wealth (China and India, by mistaken way of America). The Chinese may well have gone for the East African coast (Zanzibar, Mombasa) and in particular - dominance of the Arabian Sea. This is where the world's powerhouses (and hence naval booty) was between say 800 - 1500AD. Naturally, as Europe did, they may well have churned the revenues from these victories inward and strengthened domination of the Silk Road. Europe was neither a threat, much of a prize, nor was it actually practical at that time to go and 'take out Europe'. I doubt they would have gone there.

As for crossing the Pacific. They knew the world was round already, so America would have been hit for sure. I'd probably anticipate the Chinese 'Conquistadors' doing a similar, if not more ruthless job of the Native Americans to be frank.

Gross hypothesis but it is a 'what if' thread :D. Oh and this all of course takes the European naval supremacy model, rather than thinking particularly of Chinese interests at that time. I don't really know those well enough.
 
There is a book about his expeditions called 1421, written by a historian who has actually found evidence that Zheng He's fleet made it to not only the Americas, but Australia and New Zealand as well! I highly recommend the book, it's a very interesting read.
 
kryszcztov said:
An interesting read, but I was aware of this, more or so. More or so, because I'm pretty sure that what I read took place in the XIIIth century, or to say it as I recall it, during the 1200s. Which is 200 years before what this article says. I remember that (in what I read) it soon became a crime to sail the seas (you could be executed for that !). But indeed at some point during the "Middle Ages", the Chinese Empire was stronger than the European nations. The article I read made the assumptions that the cause for the brutal ending in overseas activities was inner problems.
Click to expand...

The Ming Dynasty that started the voyages had not yet begun in the 1200s.
 
Two centuries earlier? That would be the Song. There were plenty of private merchant fleets sailing to Southeast Asia, India and the Middle East then, but no official fleets from the court.

And no giant warships or an army of marines either.
 
I recall seeing the book in question and thinking "Are you kidding me?" because of previous speculation on whether or not the ancient Meso-Americans were astronauts (the "space aliens created the Nazca symbols" deal) or that the Phoenicians had reached South America prior to the Vikings. I also recently saw a program explaining how the Vinland Map was a forgery by an idealistic scholar (indulging in a personal fantasy, it seemed to say) who based his drawing on existing 15th-Century maps and written accounts of Viking colonies in Iceland and Greenland. However, there have been artefacts found in Newfoundland which indicated the presence of Vikings, so it's possible that a Chinese fleet of the Ming dynasty that was exploring the north Pacific could well have made a voyage along the west coast of North America. As China was already engaged in trade along the Silk Road and lacked the colonizing of European culture, there might not have been an incentive to establish permanent contact in the newly-explored regions. Chinese attitudes about outsiders (barbarians in their eyes, as well as in the eyes of any other empire) wouldn't have helped either.

I could imagine what the Chinese wou'd've thought of the inhabitants of Alaska (nothing of value other than sealskins and walrus tusks), the Pacific Northwest (lots of trees, but they're not using them for anything) and Meso-America (some gold, but a bad habit of terrorizing neighbors and butchering their captives in bizarre rituals). Given China's notorious reaction to outsiders (some of whose actions didn't help anything), I doubt that they'd want to interact with the Aztecs and Mayas at this point.
 
Dann said:
Two centuries earlier? That would be the Song. There were plenty of private merchant fleets sailing to Southeast Asia, India and the Middle East then, but no official fleets from the court.

And no giant warships or an army of marines either.
Click to expand...
The Ming expeditions were a direct evolutionary descendant of the Song mercantile fleets.

Prior to the Song, the Chinese had pretty much left foreign trade to foreigners. But with the Song forced out of N China and the capital moved to Hangzhou, the Chinese pretty much had to expand out in the only other direction - the sea. Once the Chinese got serious, they wrestled control of the Chinese seas fr the foreign trade fleets, and made their own trading voyages all over Asia (and even E Africa) too. :)
 
Yusaku Jon III said:
Chinese attitudes about outsiders (barbarians in their eyes, as well as in the eyes of any other empire) wouldn't have helped either.

I could imagine what the Chinese wou'd've thought of the inhabitants of Alaska (nothing of value other than sealskins and walrus tusks), the Pacific Northwest (lots of trees, but they're not using them for anything) and Meso-America (some gold, but a bad habit of terrorizing neighbors and butchering their captives in bizarre rituals). Given China's notorious reaction to outsiders (some of whose actions didn't help anything), I doubt that they'd want to interact with the Aztecs and Mayas at this point.
Click to expand...
Those attitudes are only installed as a result of the Mongol interregnum. Which really cemented China's xenophobicness.

The Tang e.g. were incredibly cosmopolitan and seeked to expand aggressively. The Tang emperors could also accept being nomadic kaghans, themsevles being half-Turkish. Too bad, they didn't have much of a navy then.
 
Rambuchan said:
About the 'what if': I doubt the Chinese would have gone for Europe. If we think what the Europeans did, they went straight for the wealth (China and India, by mistaken way of America). The Chinese may well have gone for the East African coast (Zanzibar, Mombasa) and in particular - dominance of the Arabian Sea. This is where the world's powerhouses (and hence naval booty) was between say 800 - 1500AD. Naturally, as Europe did, they may well have churned the revenues from these victories inward and strengthened domination of the Silk Road. Europe was neither a threat, much of a prize, nor was it actually practical at that time to go and 'take out Europe'. I doubt they would have gone there.

As for crossing the Pacific. They knew the world was round already, so America would have been hit for sure. I'd probably anticipate the Chinese 'Conquistadors' doing a similar, if not more ruthless job of the Native Americans to be frank.

Gross hypothesis but it is a 'what if' thread :D. Oh and this all of course takes the European naval supremacy model, rather than thinking particularly of Chinese interests at that time. I don't really know those well enough.
Click to expand...
The Chinese concern with the northern security i.e. the Mongols took precedence over all foreign adventures. Despite sending 5 major expeditions into the steppes, backed by Mongol allies even, the Ming failed to crush all the Mongol tribes. In the end, they even had to abandon their forward positions in Inner Mongolia, with the Mongols becoming ever stronger.

On the emperor's and the imperial court's radar, the sea voyages were just a minor detail. It was the north that was the deadly problem.
 
Dann said:
Good article. :thumbsup: My only gripe is the last paragraph. Must they assign a sinister motive to anything modern day China does? :rolleyes: Zheng He is honored by Chinese everywhere, even the "good guys" in Taiwan, Hongkong or overseas communities! :gripe:
There are temples in SE Asia dedicated to the sanpao gong, the Three Jeweled Eunuch.

Considering that Zheng He was of Central Asian descent and a Muslim to boot... :crazyeye:

Rant over, back on topic. We may never know what could have been. Of the Ming emperors, Yunglo was the only capable one, and he was the one who sponsored Zheng He's expeditions. Once he died, the subsequent emperors undid all those expeditionary achievements.

What a waste! :mad: They were bloody unrivaled then. If they had continued the world as we know it will be completely different. Those effete pooves with their petty political machinations and power struggles! :aargh: Not realizing how much more profitable conquest and colonization can be.
Click to expand...
The Mongol menace was serious. I'd think twice before blaming the court officials - after all, defense of the home territory was an important priority, considering who just ruled China earlier. ;)
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
 
Rambuchan said:
Yes the whole article struck me with a great sense of disappointment. Mostly because the expeditions were cut short but also of the mentality which sought to confine them.

I've been aware of these expeditions already. I've also read of Hindu and Arab mariners, prior to, during and after these periods. You can see their handy work in the populations, languages, scripts and religions in SE Asia. Asia was a fabulously wealthy and powerful place in 15th century. In the same spirit as European colonial power sought to 'gift' their great achievements on to the world, I can think of many gifts these Chinese (also Indian and Arab) mariners could have spread to the world from their empires.

As for the current affairs point, I agree with Dann, I think it is a somewhat inappropriate conclusion to draw. It's more a twist in the writing than a worthwhile comment. I think China has a good grip on things at present and those suspicions and fears will not be realised.
Click to expand...
Indeed, the article missed the point of comparison.

China's security situation during the Ming was concern with the ever-present Mongol threat. Today though, it's with a much more benign power over the seas - and the Chinese were working closely with the Russians (or so it seems). Today, it's a whole new ballgame. :p
 
XIII said:
The Mongol menace was serious. I'd think twice before blaming the court officials - after all, defense of the home territory was an important priority, considering who just ruled China earlier. ;)
Click to expand...
So abandon the north to them Mongols! Go the way of the Southern Song and hide behind the Yangtze, but evolve into a naval superpower and be like Britain, only by a few centuries earlier.

With colonies all over Southeast Asia, the Middle East and East Africa, there would be enough money and resources to offset the loss of northern China. Do this one bit further and they'll reach the Americas. I think the armies will go crazy with the Aztecs and the Incas too, just like Cortez and Pizarro. Gold is gold for any materialistic civ with a military edge. Especially if they see the natives having common utensils made out of the stuff. :groucho:

With further research, they might just get enough technology to eventually strike back at the Mongols. It might take a while, but is certainly better than hiding behind the Great Wall and stagnating.
 
No self-respecting Chinese emperor is going to just abandon the ancient Chinese heartland.

Besides, what makes you think the nomads will stop at the Yangzi? All those N Chinese pop will just be a vast infantrymen recruitment ground for the manpower-starved steppe armies. :p
 
They could retreat southwards scorched-earth style.

Take all the population with them. Kill all those who refuse to leave! Burn all the cities, towns and fields! Poison all the wells and rivers! Let's see the Mongols try to use THAT now useless territory.
 
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