Actually, this may be a game where portugal (!) exceeds. Or perhaps Hittites. Why Portugal? If you figure that most of the most expensive AA techs come huts, the extra commerce for coastal cities may help with early techs, because it's a higher percent of cost.
Not getting a free tech in each era is a problem and will cost probably 4-8 turns vs. a scientific civ (there is a fair chance you will get at least one of chivalry in the middle ages, communism/fascism/ironclads in the IA and recycling in MT from a scientific free tech), and paying full price for libs is always a pain - on the other hand, you kick off a GA with just collosus, so as soon as you stop expanding, you can use the GA to build those.
Why Hittites? Well, MT techs are very expensive, so you need either metros or a lot of cities. In either case, commercial civs give you more productivity in the modern era, with less corruption and more gold.