Shall we attack the longbowman with our 2nd keshik should the 1st fail?

Should we attack the longbowman across the river, near Berlin with our second Keshik in the event that the first keshik fails to kill the longbowman?

I'm sure you're all familiar with the issue of the longbowman hanging around Berlin and the recent controversy about how to deal with him. I hate to bring another poll to this already overdone issue, however I'm not sure that attacking with only the 1st keshik is in the spirit of what the citizens voted for in the first longbowman poll.

I'll provide a link to the thread where the short discussion about this issue has occurred. In summary the warlord believes we have a good enough chance with the single keshik and he wants the 2nd for scouting purposes, while I argue that should the first keshik fail we would be in a much worse situation than before we attacked, and if we can alleviate that with the second keshik we should take the opportunity.

http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?t=229922

In hopes to avoid controversy I'll provide 3 options:
attack with the 2nd keshik
attack with the 2nd keshik at DP's discretion by percent chance of victory
don't attack the longbowman with the 2nd keshik

For interpretation I would say that a majority in attack with the 2nd keshik would result in a required attack on the longbowman should the first keshik fail

Should don't attack the longbowman with the 2nd keshik have a majority an attack with the 2nd keshik should be illegal

And if the majority is divided between attack with the 2nd keshik and attack with the 2nd keshik at DP's discretion the longbowman should be attacked at the DP's discretion as people voting for the keshik to attack unconditionally will clearly prefer giving the DP authority to decide on the attack in contrast with outlawing such an attack all together.

I believe that covers all possible options.

This poll will close in 2 days so as to be ready for the next turnchat

deleted info.

The first keshik has already been voted on to attack that longbowman, this poll is in reference to that 2nd weaker keshik being used as a follow up should the first keshik fail in its attack.

Wasn't that poll declared invalid?

No ruling has yet been issued, however the warlord has vowed publicly to continue with the attack regardless of the ruling. Also from looking that the opinions of the judges it appears they are leaning towards keeping it valid.

Joe Harker said:

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Joe, please remove the info provided in this post, as it is from an action that is against our rules. Thanks.

The odds for attacking the longbowman with the first keshik is 20 %, the other 0.1 %, that is based on the rules. I urge the people to vote against this poll, or we would have no mounted scouts to cross the river and look for new units.

Voting for this move, would decimate our cavalry.

This is the singular most idiotic move I have ever seen in a demogame, several of them. Health of the high quality keshik is 1.4, and it is a suicide mission with very very bad odds. I see this more as a "protest against the warlord poll", than as a sound strategy poll.

Those odds are incorrect especially when you consider the 2nd keshik has a promotion available both to heal it and to negate the river crossing penalty, the combined odds of the keshiks are certainly much higher, and allowing the longbowman to sneak into Berlin would decimate our attacking force much worse than taking out the longbowman on open ground would, I urge you to vote for the 2nd option so that the DP may evaluate our options when he can see the exact percentages.

It would have been wiser to send the keshiks one tile farther than the infantry in this. Then we would get much better odds, for both of them. Let us move the two keshiks between the longbowman and Berlin on the other tile (NE of Berlin). The longbowman have poorer odds attacking us.

with Provolution, knowing what I know now.

Provolution said:

Let us move the two keshiks between the longbowman and Berlin on the other tile (NE of Berlin).

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But we can't, due to a legally binding poll.

Make a new poll then. That will undo that infamous mickey mouse poll.

As a citizen I request this poll nullified by the Justices. The poll lasts till 8 of April, which is far too late in the process before the turnchat. This ill conceived move has to end. So I request this poll nullified.

Last I knew Joe had scheduled his TC for the 9th giving a full day for implementation of a very simple move

A very simple move, in all the iterations and literal meanings of that concept, a very simple move...

Now we are to lose BOTH keshiks, including the one I saved for scout, thank you.

Provolution said:

As a citizen I request this poll nullified by the Justices. The poll lasts till 8 of April, which is far too late in the process before the turnchat. This ill conceived move has to end. So I request this poll nullified.

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You might want to alter your request, as the closing date is prior to the TC. Granted, that's also been put on stay again.

You also need to declare this in the court thread.

Provolution said:

As a citizen I request this poll nullified by the Justices. The poll lasts till 8 of April, which is far too late in the process before the turnchat. This ill conceived move has to end. So I request this poll nullified.

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Please anyone making a review request: Post them in the Judiciary thread.

grant2004 said:

Last I knew Joe had scheduled his TC for the 9th giving a full day for implementation of a very simple move

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It was scheduled for the 8th, but now that i stirred up a hornets nest, it will most likely be later.

If this dastardly poll wins through, I hope you will employ your discretion with awareness and distinction, not instinct and extinction - so if this poll gives you the authority to decide this move, please spare the last keshik at all costs. Having scouts in German territory is of utmost importance, and thanks to these barristers, we may have this last window of opportunity to do so.

Sending one of our best Keshiks on a suicide strike is bad, sending two is worse, sending all available cavalry in the campaign army on suicide strikes is as good as treason. So please save our scouts, I beg you.

Also, the end of the keshiks is near, with Guilds in about 11-13 turns.
If we lose two now, we only have two left - which is very bad.

Hence my vote for "at the DP's discretion". I wouldn't mind finishing off the LB, but I don't want to make a suicide run with the 2^nd keshik to do it. If the odds aren't fairly high, I'd hesitate to strike.

I still haven't looked at this part of the save, what are our forces in that area as well as Berlin's? Anyone have any good screenshots that show what Berlin has defending her and what we have? I recall Provo having somm ss's in I believe his operations thread.