It's not only the human players . . .

. . . but the AI also suffers losing streaks.
It's almost the end of the privateer age; I've lost quite a few to repeated caravel attacks (usually sink one, take some damage, second caravel sinks privateer) and now they're going down to frigates. Then what happens ?
Privateer #1 sinks 3 caravels and takes no damage.
Privateer #2 sinks 4 caravels and takes no damage.
Privateer #3 sinks 2 frigates and takes no damage.
Privateer #4 sinks 2 caravels and a frigate and takes no damage.
Privateer #5 sinks 3 frigates, but takes one hit.
Privateer #6 sinks 2 frigates, then a caravel, and takes no damage.
Then a wandering explorer (who I had entirely forgotten) is attacked by 2 axemen; although badly wounded, he survives and they don't.
Finally, less surprisingly, I had landed a small expeditionary force of 3 tanks and an explorer-medic, which was attacked by a stack of 24 units, these being cats, trebs, knights and macemen. 21 of these died attacking my first (Combat 3) tank before it took enough damage to hand over to tank #2 (Combat 2) which killed the other 3 units.

Bushface said:

. . . but the AI also suffers losing streaks.

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It wouldn't be a true random number generator if they didn't. Streaks are characteristic of any probability system, and Civ 4 is no exception.

Very true. But this is the first time I have actually noticed the AI getting a bad streak, whereas there have been many occasions of human players getting them. It's the 'selective memory' phenomenon.

Bushface said:

Very true. But this is the first time I have actually noticed the AI getting a bad streak, whereas there have been many occasions of human players getting them. It's the 'selective memory' phenomenon.

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Indeed it is, which is why I think a lot of players mistakenly accuse the game of having "hidden mechanics" that oppose the human player.

wouldn't it be nice to have random events generated based on combat records?

example - you win 10 battles in a row. Get a great general. You lose 10 battles in a row. Suffer a -1 penalty with your enemy's allies.

Or just have the computer display: Saladin (Arabs) has won an astounding 20 victories in a row! or Louis (French) have lost 50 battles in a row.

Lord_Zath said:

wouldn't it be nice to have random events generated based on combat records?

example - you win 10 battles in a row. Get a great general. You lose 10 battles in a row. Suffer a -1 penalty with your enemy's allies.

Or just have the computer display: Saladin (Arabs) has won an astounding 20 victories in a row! or Louis (French) have lost 50 battles in a row.

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You'd have to be *very* careful with mechanics like that because someone could just go back to the red-headed tech stepchild of the world (usually Tokes) and clear out their civ with artillery and infantry and nab themselves 100 straight victories or something. Abuse the mechanic, more or less.

^^

Agreed, or you could just load, reload, etc.

Lord_Zath said:

example - you win 10 battles in a row. Get a great general. You lose 10 battles in a row. Suffer a -1 penalty with your enemy's allies.

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No, what happens is you LOSE so many GG points! This accounts for loss of morale, etc.

Verge said:

Indeed it is, which is why I think a lot of players mistakenly accuse the game of having "hidden mechanics" that oppose the human player.

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Part of the "problem" is that humans usually attack with good odds. Thus you often suffer losing battles you are favored to win and almost never see the benefit of winning battles you are favored to lose. I've lost numerous battles I had 95% or better chances of winning, but never won a battle with a 5% or less chance of victory.

Molybdeus said:

Part of the "problem" is that humans usually attack with good odds. Thus you often suffer losing battles you are favored to win and almost never see the benefit of winning battles you are favored to lose. I've lost numerous battles I had 95% or better chances of winning, but never won a battle with a 5% or less chance of victory.

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then again, one wouldn't go into as many 5% battles as 95% battles.

LUEser said:

then again, one wouldn't go into as many 5% battles as 95% battles.

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When I'm attacking a well defended city with a lot of attackers, I might send 20% to their death just to get the odds from 5% to 20%. Once the odds are at 20%, I keep on going and keep winning more and more. The key is having enough soldiers to pull this off, but most units that saw combat that round hit the 5% odds wall...