The Great-Engineer Farm in BC Era (and other gene-pool matters)

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The Great-Engineer Farm in BC Era (and other gene-pool matters)


Of all the great persons to pop in the early starts, the GEs are the most sought after by the general public. This is for good reason, as settling or rushing, they give you very high power boostings. For example, an extra 3 beakers and 3 hammers each turn (base) is huge, but so is being able to rush a 400 hammer build like the Pyramids (in the BC era!).

Sadly, Firaxis seems to have tried to prevent farming of these engineers (for good reason). In fact, the Great Wall has also been modified to produce spy points instead of GE in the BtS expansion.

And behind this, it seems prophets are also hard to come by in the early phases. It is no coincidence that caste prevents the use of engineers and priests. Hammer producing specialists, really are held as one of the most overpowering elements in the early phases.

That said, let me reaffirm that it is still possible to get an Engineer farm up in the early stages (with a few tricks). What I want to do is go over some numbers for the most optimum farm, and then you can draw your own conclusions from this.

First, I could be cheap and simply just say, “Build the hanging gardens or pyramids manually and nothing else, then you are guaranteed to pop a GE each time.”

Well, yes that is technically true, however it will take quite a log time to pop out each GE, not to mention it takes a lot of hammers to be going this route consistently. What I want to do instead, is go back to the Oracle à MetalCasting slingshot system. It is more interesting because of the huge gains it can deliver, even though there is some more risk to it. By looking at this set-up, we can also look at some math numbers that apply elsewhere.

It should be noted that there isn’t much talk of this strategy anymore, and perhaps one reason is that it becomes hard for may players to pull off on Immortal, but you will still occasionally see it pulled off even on deity.

So, let’s assume today we roll out our random fractal map and start a deity game of our own. We have Ghandi today because he starts with mysticism (one tech less needed for priesthood), and he starts with mining allowing us to research iron-working right out of the gate. Furthermore, he is philosophical, giving us double the great person accumulation points.

We get our fast worker out, and perhaps a second one and before you know it we are pre-chopping some trees, and then chopping the oracle itself. Don’t forget to research pottery though, else we won’t be able to select MetalCasting as a tech!

When the time comes, we chose our Metal-Casting, and now we must QUICKLY chop some more trees as we want to get our forge up, (120) hammers ASAP. Now, you DID pre-chop some already, didn’t you? That done, immediately open the engineer slot and notice we now have two separate forces fighting the great person pool. The oracle is contributing priest points, while the engineer wants another engineer. But notice, the engineer contributes 3 points, while the oracle only 2. Assuming, you chopped the forge fast enough, the engineer won’t be too far behind in the race. Now keep in mind, your philosophical trait is making the race twice as fast!

Now yes, you can’t guarantee you will always get an engineer this way, due to the priest pollution. However! You can statistically make yourself as an engineer favourite, and this being done in the BC era. Also, you should pop a few great people, and hence a few engineers even if you do get a priest now and then.

But lets look at what else we can do.

We research masonry, and our first engineer that pops we use to insta-rush the Pyramids. Now, we don’t just do this because it’s a shiny building and all. Note, that this wonder also adds +2 engineer points to the pool. Not only does this dilute priest pollution, but it also helps speed up the rate at which yet another person will pop.

And then, we pop again. What do you do? Well if you had mathematics you can chop/pop-rush an aqueduct, and then BOOM, use the engineer to rush the Hanging Gardens. Again, this dilutes priest pollution even more, and speeds up the rate of the next engineer.

This set-up will give you one of the best bangs for the buck. And now, let’s look at our engineer farm on a mathematical level, as there is a lot of inconsistent arguments floating around the forum. Let’s solve this once and for all. In particular, there are those who think that only great person points count to the pool, and NOT the sources. It seems as though there have been changes throughout the versions and now no one knows for sure what is what. So lets look at a true to life example here.


Priest Points:
2 from Oracle

Engineer Points:
3 from Engineer
2 from Pyramids
2 from Hanging Gardens


Points wise, this is a 2-to-7 ratio.

Converting to a percent, we get:
22.2 bar versus 77.7 bar

However, after taking a shot from a real life game this scenario showed the actual values as:
23% versus 77%

Hmm, it’s close, but there seems to be a small discrepancy. It’s as though the game was rounding the priests upward, and the engineers downward.

However, let’s assume that in fact, the number of sources also counts toward the probability algorithm. So in addition, we will add:


Priest Points:
+ 1 from Oracle

Engineer Points
+1 from Engineer
+1 from Pyramids
+1 from Hanging Gardens


In total, the ratio is now 3-to-10.

Converting to a percent, gives us:

23.1% versus 76.9%

Rounding to integers, we see that this matches exactly to the real world example. So, the ruling is in: POINT SOURCES COUNT!

Just keep in mind, that the extra points for SOURCES do not contribute to the gene pool (well yes, and no). You can verify this by counting up the points from the wonders and the specialists, and then observing how fast the gene-pool is filling up. The only thing the additional SOURCE points contribute to is the chances of a particular great person to pop. In a nut-shell, they only help to influence the random number generator, but NOT the speed of the gene pool bar.


Anyhow, I hope this has cleared up some misconceptions for once and for all. And maybe I’ve shown some light on some tactics that still work on deity. But if you already knew it all, then perhaps we can play a game then sometime, haha!



Screenshot notes:
If your wondering, this was taken from a Deity team-game with Japan as my partner. And if you’re wondering what is with all the settlers in the capital, it’s is simply because of this: for the test I didn’t want to risk (even for a single turn) that the game would auto assign a scientist specialist in one of my slots. So I just made it continually work on settlers. I’ve highlighted the numbers on the gene-pool, so you all can verify for yourself.

Also, I spent quite a few number of turns after the HG was built to make sure that the current bar was filled without any bias. No change in the pool or point sources were done since before the last spill-over.
 

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Converting to a percent, we get:
22.2 bar versus 77.7 bar

However, after taking a shot from a real life game this scenario showed the actual values as:
23% versus 77%

Hmm, it’s close, but there seems to be a small discrepancy. It’s as though the game was rounding the priests upward, and the engineers downward.

However, let’s assume that in fact, the number of sources also counts toward the probability algorithm. So in addition, we will add:


Priest Points:
+ 1 from Oracle

Engineer Points
+1 from Engineer
+1 from Pyramids
+1 from Hanging Gardens


In total, the ratio is now 3-to-10.

Converting to a percent, gives us:

23.1% versus 76.9%

Rounding to integers, we see that this matches exactly to the real world example. So, the ruling is in: POINT SOURCES COUNT!

No. No they don't. Not even a little bit.

The easiest way to see this should be to try the same experiment, reversing the Priest and Engineering points - Priest + Oracle + Stone Henge + Pyramids, for example. Do you get the same results in the popup?

You are confusing two different ideas - the values used in the GP generation code, and the values used in displaying the probabilities. And as it happens the game uses two different calculations in these places.

GP generation is done by CvCity::doGreatPeople. That calculation is exact, subject to the behavior of the RNG. It picks a uniformly distributed number based on the sum of the different flavors of GP points that have been produced, then determines which bin that number falls into.

The display of the probabilities is implemented in CvGameTextMgr::parseGreatPeopleHelp. That code is rounding the probabilities of each GP down to the nearest integer, then making the numbers look right by fudging the probability of the first GP type to get a total probability of 100%.

This is why you get 2 priest points + 7 engineer points -> 23/77, but 7 priest points + 2 engineer points -> 78/22. The order of the great people is found in CIV4UnitInfos.xml: Prophet, Artist, Scientist, Merchant, Engineer. Edit: oops, forgot Spy - probably belongs at the end of the list. Not Generals, though - the mechanic is different.
 
The display of the probabilities is implemented in CvGameTextMgr::parseGreatPeopleHelp. That code is rounding the probabilities of each GP down to the nearest integer, then making the numbers look right by fudging the probability of the first GP type to get a total probability of 100%.

That was my first conclusion, but then I thought no, no way Firaxis would do that nonsense (I should have known better?), so then I looked at point sources and it hit right on. I suppose then, due to the fudging and a coincidence of the point sources, it's funny how it worked out.

Right now I just hope you are right then, as this debate seems to constantly go on.

I'll take another look at some samples later. Whatever the case, I hope we can all agree on it BEYOND A DOUBT soon.
 
That was my first conclusion, but then I thought no, no way Firaxis would do that nonsense (I should have known better?)

You should have known better.

Another way to demonstrate that the displayed measure is incorrect is to use three sources of equal weight - say three specialists ( 3+3+3 = 9 /turn ). Same number of sources, same kinds of sources, yet in the display one of them will be listed at 34%, and the others at 33%.

In theory, the odds of the first GP could be almost 5% high, though it may not be so easy to set up that condition in practice.
 
You should have known better.

Ouff, indeed!

VoU, for now I'm going to swing to your side of the belief, as you have been around for a while and I have trust in you with some of these quirks.

I don't think there will be a better breakdown in the GUI as I think Firaxis has dumped the Civ flagship with the new Colonization project. But maybe the BuG team can do some improvement in this department. Anyhow, it's not the end of the world I guess as the figures shouldn't be too far off from the real stats (we hope!).

I'm going to leave the initial post as is, so everyone can see that trying to test both hypothesis with empirical data can STILL give you false results as far as this game in concerned, so never trust what you see, ahah!
 
This is pretty strong in wonderspam but doesn't seem too viable otherwise :(. You're burning your first 2 GP's (assuming you do get 2 engineers, which is actually less likely than 1 each) on wonders. Granted, they're good wonders (especially the pyramids, although you're not settling those GP's yet and if you run a lot of specialists elsewhere they'll overtake your engineer farm quickly), but they won't coincide with a lot of strategies.

This is of course much more viable with philosophical (and to less of an extent industrious), but it still seems like it'd hinder a lot of things too. Nevertheless, it does seem like the #1 way to set up a decent engineer farm.
 
It's a do-able strat without burning GE.

I had 3 forests to play with, but i did get lucky and find some stone.

attachment.php


All GP settled, initial priest settled Bombay.

I'm sure with a bit of effort you could pull this off much earlier. I did skip the forge till last.
 

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