Hell Freezeth Over: Cheezy asks a "what if" question!

I know I'm breaking holy sacrament by posting this question, but it came up in DeutschGesichteklass tonight and I didn't really get a satisfactory answer, and I really really want one.

Here's the scenario and the back information: The year is 1866, Prussia has just won a fantastic victory at Koniggratz, and Wihelm and von Molke are ready to charge all the way to Vienna and beyond. They do not, however, because Bismarck reigns them in, and convinces them to settle for peace. Because of this peace, Germany takes the remaining North German states that allied with Austria and incorporates them into the Prussian Empire.

This is what happened in real life.

My question is, what if Bismarck had stepped out of the way and let von Moltke carry his momentum after Koniggratz? I have little doubt he could take Vienna, with the Italians pressing from the south, and the Austrian army effectively destroyed at the banks of the Elbe, but what would ultimately become of that? Would this victory convince Bavaria and the other south German states that union with Prussia was in their best interests? Would the reality of GroBDeutschland be realized? Or would France see fit to intervene, and mobilize for war, the consequences of which could very well produce the First World War forty years too soon? I know what I think might have happened, but I'm curious to see what you people think of this line of events that very nearly happened.

I think none of the other powers in Europe could have accepted a German unification with Austria and an attack on Vienna would have provoked a large anti-Prussian alliance.

GoodSarmatian said:

I think none of the other powers in Europe could have accepted a German unification with Austria and an attack on Vienna would have provoked a large anti-Prussian alliance.

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Hes right.

Britian was heavily into the idea of "balance of power" and a united Germany-Austria would tip the scales.
As world police of that time, Britian would had ganged with a fearful France and Russia into killing the union.
But possibly, that might be like a German Napoleonic war.

It is estimated that at this period, Prussian trooper experience, combined in von Moltke's reorganization and restructuring of command, and superb leadership across the board, that the Prussian military could have taken on any military existant in the world and beaten it. Whether or not they could manage a two front war (though we don't know whether or how quickly Austria would collapse after Vienna was taken) remained to be seen. It is worth mentioning, however, that when the Franco-Prussian War broke out, French reservist organization, and just military mobilization in general, was very slow, unorganized, and just plain badly done. If immediately after Koniggratz the Prussians had pushed hard South, and if the taking of Vienna completely knocked Austria out of the war, then, assuming that Russia did not get involved (and it just might not; Alexander liked Bismarck A LOT, and Russia was still hurting on the international stage from the Crimean War), it might very well be feasible to swing the Prussian army around from Austria to the Rhine in time to meet, if not beat to the punch, a French invasion. As for Britain, their position,would, I think, be to maintain neutrality, as they were practically rooting for Prussia in the Franco-Prussian and Austro-Prussian Wars to begin with. If they entered the war on France's side to balance the power, we must remember that Britain's strength lay in her navy, not in her army. I have absolutely no doubt that Prussia, if it were able to meet the French in the field before total invasion, could beat the snot out of both of them.

In the event of Austria being knocked out of the war, the next question is: what happens to the Austrian allies, the small German states that, IRL, Prussia mostly absorbed after the war? And more importantly, would Bavaria, Baden, and Wurttemberg be scared enough by France's declaration of war to join forces with Prussia, the alternative being French invasion piecemeal?

First off, Russia probably wouldn't go into the lists against Prussia after the Polish affair of '63 and the Alvensleben Convention, when Russia proposed almost this exact scenario: a Russo-Prussian alliance against France and Austria. At that point von Bismarck backed away from the scheme because he wasn't too set on the idea of Russia and Prussia taking on the world, especially when von Roon's military reform program hadn't been fully implemented yet. But yeah, Gorchakov was probably sufficiently pissed at France over breaking the 1856 entente to reach out to Prussia again, especially when Austria was the ultimate target. I can see them allying with Prussia - actually, I recently wrote an ATL with them and the Prussians fighting against the French and Austrians, with loads more in the 1870s - to gain concessions in the Balkans and in Galicia. Hungarian rebels - like Deak, for example - would probably take this opportunity to grab independence as well.

Cheezy the Wiz said:

It is estimated that at this period, Prussian trooper experience, combined in von Moltke's reorganization and restructuring of command, and superb leadership across the board, that the Prussian military could have taken on any military existant in the world and beaten it. Whether or not they could manage a two front war (though we don't know whether or how quickly Austria would collapse after Vienna was taken) remained to be seen.

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Note, too, that the chassepot wasn't fully disseminated through the French military and their mitrailleuses weren't even in service yet. (Not that the mitrailleuse was a particularly good instrument anyway given its low quality in dueling with real artillery like the Krupp guns.) I'd tentatively give Prussia technical and tactical superiority in this kind of war, and since they're already mobilized they've already stolen a march on the French and could get to the Rhine in time to prevent any sort of real gain by them.

Cheezy the Wiz said:

As for Britain, their position,would, I think, be to maintain neutrality, as they were practically rooting for Prussia in the Franco-Prussian and Austro-Prussian Wars to begin with. If they entered the war on France's side to balance the power, we must remember that Britain's strength lay in her navy, not in her army. I have absolutely no doubt that Prussia, if it were able to meet the French in the field before total invasion, could beat the snot out of both of them.

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Since Britain wasn't all that happy about having yet another Bonaparte empire rebuilding French strength a few miles away from Dover, I don't know if they'd consider a general Prussian landgrab in Central Europe a terribly Bad Thing. Depends on what the Prussians do with Hannover, probably - if they handle it diplomatically enough and defer a political solution for a little while, the Brits could be mollified. Even after Victoria came to the throne significant ties existed between the two states. (And if the Prussians co-opt von Arentschildt...bwahahaha )

Cheezy the Wiz said:

In the event of Austria being knocked out of the war, the next question is: what happens to the Austrian allies, the small German states that, IRL, Prussia mostly absorbed after the war? And more importantly, would Bavaria, Baden, and Wurttemberg be scared enough by France's declaration of war to join forces with Prussia, the alternative being French invasion piecemeal?

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Wacht am Rhein meant a lot to the Germans and when France tried their Rhine Crisis Redux after the Seven Weeks' War it pissed a lot of them off. Depends on how Napoleon plays it. He was awfully susceptible to French public opinion - witness his ludicrous plebiscites. And even though he was usually in favor of Nationality determining political boundaries - like the war he and Cavour engineered in Italy - he usually clumsily grabbed for something himself, too, since he wanted Nice and Savoy in compensation. I can't imagine him trying to pose as the savior of German independence against big, bad Prussia without trying to get some goodies for himself as well, probably the Saar and part of the Rhineland. Which would anger the aforementioned Bavarians, Badeners, and Württembergers whose support would be rather important. Besides, by that time Prussia will have the 'big stick' of von Falkenstein's army in the Kleinstaaterei (I believe that it had already taken Würzburg by the time Austria surrendered OTL, so it's not unreasonable to assume even further success later on) to convince any remaining vacillating German states. Too, they have the preexisting link of the economic Zollverein, which helped smooth integration in OTL 1870 and induced them to sign the postwar alliances with Prussia after the OTL Seven Weeks' War.

Plug: Dachspmg has written a TL with somewhat similar mechanics and results in the NES forum's Alternate History Threads. He apologizes for the rather unlikely bit about the British and blames it on having written that particular segment over a year ago and not having had the energy to retcon it.

All Austria's neighbours seemingly wanted Austria to continue existing if only because of the consequences of its collapse. Hard to see how absorbing German parts of Austria wouldn't lead to this.