Departamento da Informação Estratégica

Welcome to all you snoops, spies, and demographics crunchers. This is where we try to figure out what the other teams are doing. Knowledge is power!

The basics on our opponents:

Team 1 (Kazakhstan): Elizabeth. Financial/Philosophical. Redcoat (Rifleman), Stock Exchange (Bank). Starts with fishing, mining.
Team 2 (Saturn): Darius. Financial/Organized. Immortal (Chariot), Apothecary (Grocer). Starts with agriculture, hunting (scout instead of warrior).
Team 3 (SANCTA): Willem. Financial/Creative. East Indiaman (Galleon), Dike (Levee). Starts with fishing, agriculture.
Team 5 (Mad Scientists): Pacal. Financial/Expansive. Holkan (Spearman), Ball Court (Colosseum). Starts with mysticism, mining.

And us, of course, for comparison. We're Expansive/Imperialistic, can build the carrack (caravel) and feitoria (customs house), and start with fishing and mining.

Links to good stuff.

the basics of demographic analysis
how score works

Reports from our spies.

Turn 21 summary
analysis of power changes through turn 21
Kaz, Saturn and SANCTA through turn 30
MS through turn 53

OK Oyzar has already made the job on the demographic numbers for the first two turns Thanks to him...

The demographics after our first turn:



and after the first turn of all teams:



Oyzar's analysis after the first turn:

oyzar said:

We can imeadiatly see that the last team have 12 health(+2 civ, +2 fresh water +2 diff, +6 forests(12 or 13 forests)), 8 land squares(maybe they are not costal, just have a lake? though would be weird with 4 coastal civs and last one not).

The possible gnp's are 18,18,18,16 ; 18,18,17,16 ; 18,17,17,16 ; 18,18,16,16 .

The possible mfg's are 5,1,1,1 ; 5,2,1,1 ; 5,3,1,1 ; 5,4,1,1 ; 5,2,2,1 ; 5,3,2,1 , interesting enough we also know that the last team does not have 4 hammers and hence don't get expansive bonus if they are building a worker.

The possible crop yeilds are 5,5,4,2 (and thats the only possiblity). Team 4 have 5 crop yeild.

The team with 5 mfg probably have 2 crop yeild(i strongly doubt anyone are fortunate enough to settle on a stone/marble plains hill). In the same vein(unless someone is on a stone/marble plains hill) 5,4,1,1 is not possible. Unless one of the teams working a plain grassland tile or something(i highly doubt it) the possiblity of 5,1,1,1 mfg is ruled out. That leaves: 5,2,1,1 ; 5,3,1,1 ; 5,2,2,1 ; 5,3,2,1 as possiblities. The first one is most likely, the second one means the team with 4 crop yeild probably settled on a plains hill, the third one means that the 4th team settled on a plains hill(which is unlikely as they then would have had a high chance to work a plains forest or a grassland hill forest for expansive bonus if they are building a worker first, then again they might go for a religion first, people are not rational after all). The last one means that 3 of the other teams(which means 4 teams including us) settled on a plains hill(or elephants or stone or marble). That is also very unlikely.

The possible land squares are: 8,7,6,6

The possible health caps are: 12,8,8,7 ; 12,8,7,7

As you can see we got perfect information on team 4(almost), if we had just gotten demo between each team settling we would have perfect info...

Click to expand...

Obviously we are the team 4... he meant team 5 (Pacal).

Finally the demographics after our second turn:



Nothing has changed compared to the previous screeny as we were the only team to not settle in place...

In the beginning of the game, analysing the demographic numbers (see the article linked in the "usefull reading" thread) will be our unique way to know what our opponents are doing as we won't have contact for a while...
Feel free to participate... the Departamento da Informação Estratégica needs you

Cheers

Does the 8 land squares of team 5 include the City Center? If not they are landbound, so I guess yes.

On the condition that they are npot landbound we should keep an eye out for their land area - next time it grows, it may only grow 10-11 tiles MAX if they're coastal.

Yes, 8 include the city center(you can see we are 8 as well). Hard to tell as everyone grow at the same time, though i guess someone could stay logged on in 4-5 turns time and keep on taking demo between turns...

Team 3 will grow in a couple of turns -- they're creative.

Saves us some trouble, but we still need to distinguish between team 1 and 2(don't need 5 since we are before them).

As we can see willem's borders expanded(meaning not this turn but the next one, it would be nice to have someone online between each turn to see the various land areas). He have 14 land tiles(out of potentially 21).

This shot is taken on turn 4 after Team Saturn but before Team SANCTA:

We can see that team 1 and 2 gained 14 land squares between them. We can also see that the gnp of rival worst increased to 17 leaving us any possiblities between 18,18,18,17 and 18,17,17,17 for opponents' gnps. We also know pretty sure that team 3 is the one on a plains hill with 5 production(probably building a workboat).

Diamondeye said:

Spoiler Demographic analysis (is this the right place to post stuff like this?) :

... From what I can see of this statistic, we can conclude the following:
MFG is 2,1,1,1.
CY is 5,4,4,4.
Life Expectancy is 92, 87, 87, 87 (averaging 88.3).

Land Area can be either 17,16,13,13 or 17,15,14,13.
GNP can be any of 21,21,17,17 | 21,20,18,17 | 21,19,19,17 | 21,20,17,17 (rounding up) | 21,19,18,17 (rounding up). Perhaps there are even more options on this one.

Click to expand...

Just want to say that most of the info in this is certainly wrong. Demographics round everything down(since all the numbers in the game are integers).

Team 3 obviously just completed a workboat(they are the team on the plainshill hence with 5 production it takes then 6 turns to build a workboat). They are now working a 3 commerce yeild tile, that could either mean a sea tile or an oasis(my bet is on an unimporved seafood). They didn't hook up the seafood this turn obviously since they are not making 6+ CY yet(if my intuition is right they are actually making 4 crop yeild 2 mfg).

The other GNP's are largely unchanged. 19*4=76 which means between 76 and 79 total gnp. 21+17=38 76-38=38 , 79-38=41. This means between 38 and 41 on the other two teams. One of the teams is almost certainly at 17 or 18 gnp just like last turn(team 5 and team 1 have no reason to change their gnp). Team 2 probably changed their gnp due to switching techs(which means they are now researching AH), hence their GNP went up from 17 to 21. 21+21+17=59. The last team then still have 17 or 18 gnp. Another possiblity could have been that team 3 is working a 1 coin tile but this is ruled out by the fact that 17+21+18+19=75 which is less than the total gnp. Hence team 3 is now working a 1 coin tile, team 2 likewise(researced fishing now researching AH), on of the teams is researching a basic tech(like AG or fishing or wheel, if it is team 5, we'll see next turn if it was fishing with 1 coin) and the other team is either researching a basic tech with 1 coin(still 17) or a second tier tech(like BW or a religious tech, hence getting 18 gnp).

Hence possible GNP's are 21,21,17,17 and 21,21,18,17. Our fin friends can't work 2 commerce tiles.



Life expectancy is still the same btw 12,8,8,7 or 12,8,7,7 (which would mean 92,88,88,87 or 92,88,87,87).

MFG is still unknown but 2,1,1,1 is a possiblity but 2,2,2,1 is also possible(though unlikely). My bet is 2,2,1,1.

CY is 5,5,5,4 or 5,5,4,4 probably. Either is likely(for 5,5,4,4 one team was already on 4 and team 3 just switched to 4 to work a coastal resource, for 5,5,5,4 the team that was at 4 earlier switched to 5 when they switched +1 coin(to a floodplain or a riverside grassland foodresource), while the 4 is from team 3). 5,5,5,4 is technically possible(but extreemly unlikely given that we know that either team 1 or 2 and team 5 had 5 crop yeild earlier).

On land we know one team is 14000(team 3) and that team 5 is 17000, we also know that team 2 and 3 are at or under 14000. 14500*4=58000 58000-17000-14000=27000 hence one team is 14000 and one is 13000. The only possiblity is hence 17000, 14000, 14000, 13000.

Excellent analysis oyzar!

Could someone make a summary of what we have on the other teams? I.e. basically what oyzar said but without the deductions?

I was planning to do that this afternoon.

Ok, after looking through what's been done so far, I think I'm going to start at the beginning: pulling the relevant formulas out of the demographics article so that they're all in one place for reference. Which should make it a bit easier for people other than oyzar to draw conclusions in future. But that does mean I might not get to the summary today.

GNP
gold income + culture + espionage + (research*bonus) - expenses



MFG
total hammers, including unspecific bonuses (i.e. forge bonus, but not the expansive bonus, which applies only to workers)



Crop Yield
total food from worked tiles



Soldiers -- several factors go into this sum

Population
1000 for every other total pop point (i.e. at 2, 4, 6, etc)

Technologies
2000: Sailing, Hunting, Mining, Animal Husbandry
4000: Wheel, Alphabet, Astronomy, Metal Casting, Compass, Construction, Steel, Radio, Satellites
5000: Composites, Stealth
6000: Mathematics, Chemistry, Combustion, Archery
8000: Guilds, Fission, Flight, Bronze Working, Machinery, Assembly Line
10000: Horseback Riding, Iron Working, Artillery, Industrialism, Rocketry, Advanced Flight, Laser
12000: Gunpowder, Rifling, Military Science

Improvements (unused UBs omitted)
2000: Walls, Dry Dock, Forge, Factory, Stable, Mint, Assembly Plant, Industrial Park, Levee, Dike
3000: Barracks
4000: Mt. Rushmore, Red Cross, Iron works, Statue of Zeus
6000: Military Acadamy
8000: Heroic Epic, Chichen Itza, Scotland Yard, West Point
10000: Great Wall, Cristor Redentor, Moai Statues

Units (unused UUs omitted)
2000: explorer, warrior, galley
3000: archer, trireme, caravel, carrack
4000: spearman, holkan, chariot, immortal, galleon, airship
5000: catapult
6000: swordsman, axeman, pikeman, longbow, horse archer, east indiaman, privateer, guided missle
7000: crossbow
8000: war elephant, trebuchet, frigate
9000: maceman, musketman
10000: knight, ship of the line
12000: grenadier, cuirassier, cannon, ironclad, fighter
14000: rifleman, redcoat, anti-tank infantry, machine gun, missle cruiser
15000: cavalry
16000: transport, carrier, bomber
18000: SAM infantry, artillery
20000: infantry, stealth bomber
22000: mobile SAM
24000: jet fighter
26000: gunship, mobile artillery
28000: marine, submarine
30000: paratrooper, tank, destroyer, stealth destroyer, attack submarine, tactical nuke
32000: mech infantry
40000: modern armor, battleship, ICBM



Land Area
Land squares within borders, times 1000.

Population
Sum of all your cities taken individually, using:
1 pop = 1000
2 pop = 6000
3 pop = 21000
4 pop = 48000
5 pop = 90000
6 pop = 150000
7 pop = 232000
8 pop = 337000
9 pop = 469000
10 pop = 630000

and so on. The formula for each city is [pop^2.8], rounded down. This thread has a calculator, which I haven't tried out.

Approval Rating
Total happy faces divided by the total of happy and unhappy. Initial default is 50%.

Life Expectancy
Same as approval rating, but based on healthy faces and sick faces. Initial default is 30 years.

Imports/Exports
Won't come into play until we have trade routes, but basically it's how much money your trade routes are making for you versus how much money everyone else's trade routes are making for them. A higher ratio is ranked better, regardless of how much total money is involved.

Yeah sorry I was somehow convinced that the editor would round up at .5 and above. I edited my post and will look into Oyzars analysis in detail sometime tomorrow.

Just some new information out here on turn 7 - somebody built a Workboat on turn 6 - we think its team 3 actually, they moved up to 7 food, and down from 5 hammers to just 2.

I logged in before team 3 actually, demo still showed 5 then for max opponent crop yeild so it is certainly team 3. Since it is now 5 for rival worst opponent's crop yeilds are 5,5,7,5 . 7 for team 3, 5 for everyone else.

Our opponents continue doing weird things. Now someone switched from working a 3 food tile to a 2 hammer 1 food tile(team 1 or 5). This likely mean that they'll grow to size 2 next turn(we'll see then), probably researching BW first to whip a worker(or maybe just growing to size 2 first building a workboat). If so i guess it is team 1(since team 5 wouldn't grow before yet another turn). At any rate we'll see the results next turn.

It is interesting that from the previous turns demographics(not from the ones i just checked) average life expectancy increased to 89. This means someone got an extra forest. The health caps are now at 12,9,8,7 or 12,9,7,7 .

Since we know there is one team at 7 crop yeild(team 3) and one at 3 crop yeild(team 1) the two others much be at 5 crop yeild since you need at least 20 total crop yeild to get 5 average hence the crop yeilds are now 7,5,5,3. We know team 3 have 2 mfg and we know team 1 have 3 mfg(not on a plains hill). The total must be at least 8(since it says average 2). 8-3(tema 1)-2(team 3)-1(the worst team)=2. Hence we know at least one more team is on a plains hill!

... Not specifically relevant for this thread nor on statistics, but I would recommend toggling Resource Markers on when they screenshot. Not that we've encountered any hard-to-identify resources yet, but sugar/silk and sometimes coal/gems really look alike.

Some movement in demographics this turn. Team 3 just finished mining(+2K power) and started BW(or ah). Their demographics rose to 23. The average rose to 20 though. This means that most likely one of the other teams changed gnp as well. Since we know team 1 changed tiles earlier this turn it makes sense that it could be them. 23+21+19+17=80 which is what we need. If they were working a 3f tile previously(and researching BW) and are now working a 2p 1f tile. Of course it is a possiblity that they are on a plains hill and changed from a 3f1c tile to a 1p1f3c tile as well(that would explain the missing plains hill, and would mean they might not be researching BW)... Anyways it'll all be more or less clear next turn when they'll likely grow .