What are the best odds that you've lost to?

What are the best odds you've lost to?

  • Under 99%

    Votes: 11 16.4%

  • 99.0% - 99.2%

    Votes: 9 13.4%

  • 99.3% - 99.5%

    Votes: 7 10.4%

  • 99.6% - 99.8%

    Votes: 13 19.4%

  • 99.9% or better!

    Votes: 23 34.3%

  • I never lose.

    Votes: 4 6.0%
  • Total voters
    67
P

Powerslave

Prince
Joined
Jun 3, 2004
Messages
388
Location
USA
I was reminded by another post of mine of a really annoying battle that I lost. The setup is this: Shaka's been giving me grief the whole game, so once I achieve a dominant position militarily and technologically, I decide to put the backwards so-and-so out of his misery. My riflemen and cavalry march on his cities, where I meet only token resistance from his outdated medieval units... until this battle.

I always seem to get a battle or two like this when I'm fighting Shaka or Mehmed, given the thousands of units that they build.
 

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Yesterday I lost a 97.8% odds battle (with Advanced Combat Odds on). A full health C2 SoTL against a heavily wounded frigate.


Yesterday I lost like 3 battles like that.
 
Check my sig, I'm not sure if thats suppose to happen.
 
Can't remember the exact circumstances but I lost a 99.5% battle against my flatmate the other night. Besides the obvious pain, this loss was to a guy who goes berserk when he loses an 80% :rolleyes:
 
I dont believe in the odds written on the screen...how can it be. Yesterday I lost 5 combats in a row where I was at higher than 78%. what are the odds of that?
 
Pretty good, I'd say. It's a natural part of probability. You're going to have anecdotal losing and winning streaks in any random sample. In the longer term, the odds really are correct.

The source code is out there. Check it and see.
 
Powerslave said:
Pretty good, I'd say. It's a natural part of probability. You're going to have anecdotal losing and winning streaks in any random sample. In the longer term, the odds really are correct.

The source code is out there. Check it and see.
Click to expand...

Do you seriously consider a .05% chance "pretty good" :rolleyes:? And that's assuming all 5 combats were at 78%, not that some were better. That's a bad, bad RNG hosing actually.

Siege collateral > RNG, collateral or air power w/o retaliation are pretty much the only ways to guard against the rare (but occurring) complete RNG screw job.

Beating down the units with first strikes with mounted helps a lot too.
 
I've lost a few 99%, and even thought it sucks for a moment, it's not so bad as when I lose 5 battles each with 85% in a row. This makes me scream and hit my table (who is of course to blame for everything)
 
kaltorak said:
I've lost a few 99%, and even thought it sucks for a moment, it's not so bad as when I lose 5 battles each with 85% in a row. This makes me scream and hit my table (who is of course to blame for everything)
Click to expand...

Hhehe... me too .. especially with navalwarfare
 
kaltorak said:
I've lost a few 99%, and even thought it sucks for a moment, it's not so bad as when I lose 5 battles each with 85% in a row. This makes me scream and hit my table (who is of course to blame for everything)
Click to expand...

That's because the odds of that happening are < .01%. In fact, they're .007%. Less than a 1 in 10000 chance you lose 5 85% battles in a row.

The streaking is a problem for smaller stack battles. This is one of the reasons I really hate the early axe rush ----> a bad streak and 3 archers hold off 9 axes or something and you're toast, and the game is shot.
 
I'm surprised that not everyone has lost a 99.9% or better. Anyone who's been playing for a while must have had over 1000 battles with such odds.

EDIT: Didn't mean that with 1000 you should have lost; just that it becomes pretty likely (~63% to lose at least one of 1000 99.9% battles, and the lower bound for "99.9%" ingame is 99.85% AFAIK)
 
Silu said:
I'm surprised that not everyone has lost a 99.9% or better. Anyone who's been playing for a while must have had over 1000 battles with such odds.

EDIT: Didn't mean that with 1000 you should have lost; just that it becomes pretty likely (~63% to lose at least one of 1000 99.9% battles, and the lower bound for "99.9%" ingame is 99.85% AFAIK)
Click to expand...
Yeah I've certainly smashed enough heads to be on the receiving end of 99.9 a few times.
 
I chose "I never lose" because as long as I'm playing Civ, I'm never really losing. 'Cuz I'm playing Civ!
 
Silu said:
I'm surprised that not everyone has lost a 99.9% or better. Anyone who's been playing for a while must have had over 1000 battles with such odds.
Click to expand...
Exactly.
Having played hundreds of games, I have several times lost when my chances (according to the combat log) were 100%. Of course, they can't have been exactly 100%, and the combat log probably rounds odds to the nearest decimal. But still, it is always annoying.
Just this morning, a green barbarian warrior killed my combat 2 + shock impi that was fully fortified on a forrested hill... :mad: Don't know the odds, but they must have been slim.
It would perhaps be a good idea to implement a "morale" factor, that would prevent units with almost zero chances from attacking. Similarly, units attacking with overwhelming odds should at least have the ability to retreat when the gods of war don't smile on them.
 
100% chances of winning and losing? bah... I've lost a 100,1% chance of winning battle once in vanilla :D ( those obviously weren't the actual odds, but the displayed odds .... and obviously vanilla displayed odds didn't worked that well :p )
 
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