What are the best odds that you've lost to?

Powerslave · Sep 08, 2009, 06:51 PM

I was reminded by another post of mine of a really annoying battle that I lost. The setup is this: Shaka's been giving me grief the whole game, so once I achieve a dominant position militarily and technologically, I decide to put the backwards so-and-so out of his misery. My riflemen and cavalry march on his cities, where I meet only token resistance from his outdated medieval units... until this battle.

I always seem to get a battle or two like this when I'm fighting Shaka or Mehmed, given the thousands of units that they build.

mechaerik · Sep 08, 2009, 07:39 PM

Yesterday I lost a 97.8% odds battle (with Advanced Combat Odds on). A full health C2 SoTL against a heavily wounded frigate.

Yesterday I lost like 3 battles like that.

Stewie0416 · Sep 08, 2009, 07:57 PM

Check my sig, I'm not sure if thats suppose to happen.

duckduckswan · Sep 08, 2009, 08:14 PM

Can't remember the exact circumstances but I lost a 99.5% battle against my flatmate the other night. Besides the obvious pain, this loss was to a guy who goes berserk when he loses an 80%

TheMeInTeam · Sep 08, 2009, 08:34 PM

I've lost 99.99% and won @ <.01%

People have even lost back when the odds display would mistakenly list the odds as 100%.

Ignorant Teacher · Sep 08, 2009, 09:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheMeInTeam

I've lost 99.99% and won @ <.01%

I don't even try it when I have <.01%.

civverguy · Sep 08, 2009, 09:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ignorant Teacher

I don't even try it when I have <.01%.

Sometimes if you're not careful you choose one unit and you end up selecting multiple units without knowing and stack attack.

TheMeInTeam · Sep 08, 2009, 09:30 PM

Or you could try a non-incan warrior rush against a monarch+ AI while screwing around.

NKVD · Sep 08, 2009, 10:26 PM

I dont believe in the odds written on the screen...how can it be. Yesterday I lost 5 combats in a row where I was at higher than 78%. what are the odds of that?

Powerslave · Sep 08, 2009, 11:01 PM

Pretty good, I'd say. It's a natural part of probability. You're going to have anecdotal losing and winning streaks in any random sample. In the longer term, the odds really are correct.

The source code is out there. Check it and see.

TheMeInTeam · Sep 09, 2009, 12:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Powerslave

Pretty good, I'd say. It's a natural part of probability. You're going to have anecdotal losing and winning streaks in any random sample. In the longer term, the odds really are correct.

The source code is out there. Check it and see.

Do you seriously consider a .05% chance "pretty good"

? And that's assuming all 5 combats were at 78%, not that some were better. That's a bad, bad RNG hosing actually.

Siege collateral > RNG, collateral or air power w/o retaliation are pretty much the only ways to guard against the rare (but occurring) complete RNG screw job.

Beating down the units with first strikes with mounted helps a lot too.

kaltorak · Sep 09, 2009, 01:44 AM

I've lost a few 99%, and even thought it sucks for a moment, it's not so bad as when I lose 5 battles each with 85% in a row. This makes me scream and hit my table (who is of course to blame for everything)

Harvin87 · Sep 09, 2009, 02:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kaltorak

I've lost a few 99%, and even thought it sucks for a moment, it's not so bad as when I lose 5 battles each with 85% in a row. This makes me scream and hit my table (who is of course to blame for everything)

Hhehe... me too .. especially with navalwarfare

TheMeInTeam · Sep 09, 2009, 03:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kaltorak

I've lost a few 99%, and even thought it sucks for a moment, it's not so bad as when I lose 5 battles each with 85% in a row. This makes me scream and hit my table (who is of course to blame for everything)

That's because the odds of that happening are < .01%. In fact, they're .007%. Less than a 1 in 10000 chance you lose 5 85% battles in a row.

The streaking is a problem for smaller stack battles. This is one of the reasons I really hate the early axe rush ----> a bad streak and 3 archers hold off 9 axes or something and you're toast, and the game is shot.

Silu · Sep 09, 2009, 04:28 AM

I'm surprised that not everyone has lost a 99.9% or better. Anyone who's been playing for a while must have had over 1000 battles with such odds.

EDIT: Didn't mean that with 1000 you should have lost; just that it becomes pretty likely (~63% to lose at least one of 1000 99.9% battles, and the lower bound for "99.9%" ingame is 99.85% AFAIK)

GenerallyGreat · Sep 09, 2009, 08:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Silu

I'm surprised that not everyone has lost a 99.9% or better. Anyone who's been playing for a while must have had over 1000 battles with such odds.

EDIT: Didn't mean that with 1000 you should have lost; just that it becomes pretty likely (~63% to lose at least one of 1000 99.9% battles, and the lower bound for "99.9%" ingame is 99.85% AFAIK)

Yeah I've certainly smashed enough heads to be on the receiving end of 99.9 a few times.

Bostock · Sep 09, 2009, 09:04 AM

I chose "I never lose" because as long as I'm playing Civ, I'm never really losing. 'Cuz I'm playing Civ!

morchuflex · Sep 09, 2009, 09:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Silu

I'm surprised that not everyone has lost a 99.9% or better. Anyone who's been playing for a while must have had over 1000 battles with such odds.

Exactly.
Having played hundreds of games, I have several times lost when my chances (according to the combat log) were 100%. Of course, they can't have been exactly 100%, and the combat log probably rounds odds to the nearest decimal. But still, it is always annoying.
Just this morning, a green barbarian warrior killed my combat 2 + shock impi that was fully fortified on a forrested hill...

Don't know the odds, but they must have been slim.
It would perhaps be a good idea to implement a "morale" factor, that would prevent units with almost zero chances from attacking. Similarly, units attacking with overwhelming odds should at least have the ability to retreat when the gods of war don't smile on them.

r_rolo1 · Sep 09, 2009, 09:38 AM

100% chances of winning and losing? bah... I've lost a 100,1% chance of winning battle once in vanilla

( those obviously weren't the actual odds, but the displayed odds .... and obviously vanilla displayed odds didn't worked that well

)

kaltorak · Sep 09, 2009, 09:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bostock

I chose "I never lose" because as long as I'm playing Civ, I'm never really losing. 'Cuz I'm playing Civ!

Then I'm losing most of the time, because I'm working ¬¬

View Poll Results: What are the best odds you've lost to?
Under 99%	11	16.42%
99.0% - 99.2%	9	13.43%
99.3% - 99.5%	7	10.45%
99.6% - 99.8%	13	19.40%
99.9% or better!	23	34.33%
I never lose.	4	5.97%
Voters: 67. You may not vote on this poll

Sep 08, 2009, 06:51 PM	#1
Powerslave Prince Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: Baltimore, MD Posts: 386	What are the best odds that you've lost to? I was reminded by another post of mine of a really annoying battle that I lost. The setup is this: Shaka's been giving me grief the whole game, so once I achieve a dominant position militarily and technologically, I decide to put the backwards so-and-so out of his misery. My riflemen and cavalry march on his cities, where I meet only token resistance from his outdated medieval units... until this battle. I always seem to get a battle or two like this when I'm fighting Shaka or Mehmed, given the thousands of units that they build. Attached Thumbnails

Sep 08, 2009, 07:39 PM	#2
mechaerik Official Taco Inspector Join Date: Oct 2008 Location: Los Angeles Posts: 3,097	Yesterday I lost a 97.8% odds battle (with Advanced Combat Odds on). A full health C2 SoTL against a heavily wounded frigate. Yesterday I lost like 3 battles like that. __________________ Supreme Leader of the People's Republic of mechaerikistan (PRm). To see everything I've made, click here and scroll down. Political Compass: -8.38 L/R , -1.18 SL/A

Sep 08, 2009, 07:57 PM	#3
Stewie0416 Who Cares? Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Turn around Posts: 642 Images: 2	Check my sig, I'm not sure if thats suppose to happen. __________________ "You have enemies? Good. That means you’ve stood up for something, sometime in your life. " Winston Churchill Economic Left/Right: 2.25 Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: 0.62

Sep 08, 2009, 08:34 PM	#5
TheMeInTeam Deity Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: Orlando Posts: 12,941	I've lost 99.99% and won @ <.01% People have even lost back when the odds display would mistakenly list the odds as 100%. __________________ - There is no "I" in team. There is no "we" either. There is a me. - Play Faster! - YouTube Civ Walkthroughs and Map Creation! - PolyCast Co-Host! Listen in! - Watch me play LIVE

Sep 08, 2009, 08:14 PM	#4
duckduckswan Chieftain Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 92	Can't remember the exact circumstances but I lost a 99.5% battle against my flatmate the other night. Besides the obvious pain, this loss was to a guy who goes berserk when he loses an 80%

Sep 08, 2009, 09:30 PM	#8
TheMeInTeam Deity Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: Orlando Posts: 12,941	Or you could try a non-incan warrior rush against a monarch+ AI while screwing around. __________________ - There is no "I" in team. There is no "we" either. There is a me. - Play Faster! - YouTube Civ Walkthroughs and Map Creation! - PolyCast Co-Host! Listen in! - Watch me play LIVE

Sep 08, 2009, 10:26 PM	#9
NKVD Tovarish Join Date: Aug 2002 Location: Stalingrad, Québec Posts: 1,459	I dont believe in the odds written on the screen...how can it be. Yesterday I lost 5 combats in a row where I was at higher than 78%. what are the odds of that? __________________ Boycotting : MLB since 1994 Sony since 1997 Zaxe since 2008 Belkin since 2009 Director of the Civ 4 BTS Demogame Cartography Department

Sep 08, 2009, 11:01 PM	#10
Powerslave Prince Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: Baltimore, MD Posts: 386	Pretty good, I'd say. It's a natural part of probability. You're going to have anecdotal losing and winning streaks in any random sample. In the longer term, the odds really are correct. The source code is out there. Check it and see.

Sep 09, 2009, 01:44 AM	#12
kaltorak Warlord Join Date: Jul 2009 Location: Madrid Posts: 152	I've lost a few 99%, and even thought it sucks for a moment, it's not so bad as when I lose 5 battles each with 85% in a row. This makes me scream and hit my table (who is of course to blame for everything)

Sep 09, 2009, 04:28 AM	#15
Silu Immortal Join Date: Jul 2009 Location: Finland Posts: 1,776	I'm surprised that not everyone has lost a 99.9% or better. Anyone who's been playing for a while must have had over 1000 battles with such odds. EDIT: Didn't mean that with 1000 you should have lost; just that it becomes pretty likely (~63% to lose at least one of 1000 99.9% battles, and the lower bound for "99.9%" ingame is 99.85% AFAIK) Last edited by Silu; Sep 09, 2009 at 04:44 AM.

Sep 09, 2009, 09:04 AM	#17
Bostock King Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 609	I chose "I never lose" because as long as I'm playing Civ, I'm never really losing. 'Cuz I'm playing Civ! __________________ Of the gods we believe, and of men we know, that by a necessary law of their nature they rule wherever they can. And it is not as if we were the first to make this law, or to act upon it when made: we found it existing before us, and shall leave it to exist for ever after us; all we do is to make use of it, knowing that you and everybody else, having the same power as we have, would do the same as we do. - The Athenians, the Melian Dialogue

Sep 09, 2009, 09:38 AM	#19
r_rolo1 King of myself Join Date: May 2006 Location: Lisbon, Portugal Posts: 10,060	100% chances of winning and losing? bah... I've lost a 100,1% chance of winning battle once in vanilla ( those obviously weren't the actual odds, but the displayed odds .... and obviously vanilla displayed odds didn't worked that well ) __________________ " I'm the Lord of the lords, not the servant of the serfs" - D. João II of Portugal My Civ lema: Qui vincit non est victor nisi victus fatetur Lonely Hearts Club Bullpen / You , Yourself and your shadow : Some lessons on isolated starts

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