Snorrius
Librivorator
The present
We all hear these days about China, the Dragon, the Would-be First economy in the World. Due to enoromous debt the mighty USA is bowing to China, and seems like future is full of joy and bliss for this ancient countries. The country is enjoying the period of "small prosperity" to its fullest. A lot of political and economic crystal-gazers predict China to rule the world in 2050. Seems like nothing darken this vision.
Does it?
The past
To know the past is to know the future. Similar situation had already happened in the past, so lets look how our ancestors dealed with it. In the 18th century China was exporting a lot, was buying little, and European powers (especially British Empire - a those times equivalent of US) had big trade deficit with China which they had to pay with silver. Here is what WIki tells us about this issue:
So the Britain started to sell opium to China, and obviously China's government tried to fought this evil off, prohibited opium and imposed trade ban on it. It had not much effect, but at the end in 1839 First Opium War started. British empire began a fight for a democratic rights of Chinese citizens to consume opium. In the 1856-1860 Second Opium War happened.
As a result of this war China suffered a defeat, granted rights to sell opium and other goods to foreigners, lost some territories and ceased to be a trade threat to British empire.
The future
We have a similar situation now. China is the first creditor of USA (and Japan is the next). So USA has to something or it will subdue to China eventually. They cannot really sell enough to this country with Confucian ideology and high savings rate. Heroin could be a good choice but USA does not produce, and it goes against US ideology.
Another thing USA likes export is democracy but it does not seems like it will work in China's case. Something that could fool credulous Eastern European countries is not good enough to fool thousands year country.
So the only thing USA can export to China much enough to cover trade deficits and debt is war.
The scenario
Obviously, USA will not dare to fight China itself. This trade thalassocratia has mighty forces, but it is doubtful that the public will support a war with heavy man losses even with Chinese democracy at the stake. So they will try to use another way.
USA had another creditor - Japan which quite dislikes China. The economy of Japan is moving to system crash and reboot which means social disorder and riots, and a "short victorious war" is what a state needs in such cases, so all of this makes the next scenario quite possible:
Well, I guess a lot will say Chinese have nukes, so Japan (or anyone else will not dare to attack them, but it is actually not quite right. The problem of nuclear weapon is that by using it one risks to be bombed as well. For example, if Japan occupies Manchuria, and China, not being able to drive them out using conventional means, will nuke Tokio or some other cities, USA may nuke China back to "protect allies and punish act of inhuman crimes", so the chances are China will not dare to use nuclear weapon against Japan because Manchuria occupation is not a threat to existence of China's state. And if they will dare to use it against Japan - it will be a doubleplus win situation for USA. It will give an excuse for radical solution of trade balance with Chian for centuries to come, and will eliminate any possible threats (political, military and economic) from Japan.
We all hear these days about China, the Dragon, the Would-be First economy in the World. Due to enoromous debt the mighty USA is bowing to China, and seems like future is full of joy and bliss for this ancient countries. The country is enjoying the period of "small prosperity" to its fullest. A lot of political and economic crystal-gazers predict China to rule the world in 2050. Seems like nothing darken this vision.
Does it?
The past
To know the past is to know the future. Similar situation had already happened in the past, so lets look how our ancestors dealed with it. In the 18th century China was exporting a lot, was buying little, and European powers (especially British Empire - a those times equivalent of US) had big trade deficit with China which they had to pay with silver. Here is what WIki tells us about this issue:
Wikipedia said:
So the Britain started to sell opium to China, and obviously China's government tried to fought this evil off, prohibited opium and imposed trade ban on it. It had not much effect, but at the end in 1839 First Opium War started. British empire began a fight for a democratic rights of Chinese citizens to consume opium. In the 1856-1860 Second Opium War happened.
As a result of this war China suffered a defeat, granted rights to sell opium and other goods to foreigners, lost some territories and ceased to be a trade threat to British empire.
The future
We have a similar situation now. China is the first creditor of USA (and Japan is the next). So USA has to something or it will subdue to China eventually. They cannot really sell enough to this country with Confucian ideology and high savings rate. Heroin could be a good choice but USA does not produce, and it goes against US ideology.
Another thing USA likes export is democracy but it does not seems like it will work in China's case. Something that could fool credulous Eastern European countries is not good enough to fool thousands year country.
So the only thing USA can export to China much enough to cover trade deficits and debt is war.
The scenario
Obviously, USA will not dare to fight China itself. This trade thalassocratia has mighty forces, but it is doubtful that the public will support a war with heavy man losses even with Chinese democracy at the stake. So they will try to use another way.
USA had another creditor - Japan which quite dislikes China. The economy of Japan is moving to system crash and reboot which means social disorder and riots, and a "short victorious war" is what a state needs in such cases, so all of this makes the next scenario quite possible:
- US forces leaves the Japan, transferring bases, weapons, and other assets to Japan's army. In return Japan cuts US debt.
- Japan launchs an attach to China's Manchuria claiming they are protecting manchurs from Chinese oppression.
- The war of China and Japan has very high chance to be won by Japan (Japan does not need to conquer all of China, Manchuria will be enough).
- Considering that China will also experience economic and social troubles due to Global Depression, the defeat in the war will lead to internal tensions, and like usual in last few thousand years China will succumb to civil war leading to its demise similar to what happened during Opium Wars.
Well, I guess a lot will say Chinese have nukes, so Japan (or anyone else will not dare to attack them, but it is actually not quite right. The problem of nuclear weapon is that by using it one risks to be bombed as well. For example, if Japan occupies Manchuria, and China, not being able to drive them out using conventional means, will nuke Tokio or some other cities, USA may nuke China back to "protect allies and punish act of inhuman crimes", so the chances are China will not dare to use nuclear weapon against Japan because Manchuria occupation is not a threat to existence of China's state. And if they will dare to use it against Japan - it will be a doubleplus win situation for USA. It will give an excuse for radical solution of trade balance with Chian for centuries to come, and will eliminate any possible threats (political, military and economic) from Japan.
