[Speculation] Second Expansion to be announced Feb/March 2013 for June/July Release?

With no DLC now a full 179 days after the release of Gods & Kings it seems more than likely that either Civ V has come to it's end or that a new expansion is on the horizon. The previous time that such a gap existed with no movement was between the release of the final DLC and the announcement of the expansion.

With this in mind, and previous release patterns taken into account it seems likely that an expansion is on it's way, most probably announced around the February/March, as they have in the past. They announced G&Ks, BtS and Warlords all on a Thursday, and I'd expect the same this time, and whilst BtS and Warlords were both announced in March, as G&Ks was announced in February I'd guess this is the most likely this time as well.

As for the release, they generally are released about 4 months after announcement, so I'd guess it would be the same this time. As such I'd expect an announcement on:

Announcement: February 14th or February 21st 2013

...or any Thursday following, but these two seem the most likely. Then simply add around 4 months. So yeah, based on what we know, I'd expect to see an expansion around June/July next year and announced on the 14th or 21st of February 2013.

Have a nice holiday season!

Moderator Action: added [Speculation] to the thread title.

Pure speculations ... let the circulation of unfounded rumours commence.

Always pointless, and only occasionally fun.

kaspergm said:

Pure speculations ... let the circulation of unfounded rumours commence.

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Hey, my last piece of unfounded speculation turned out pretty well:

From 20/12/2011:

Menzies said:

Well, Civ V is either nearing the end of its patch cycle, or their announcing an expansion in February/March...

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From 25/12/2011:

Menzies said:

If there's an expansion, expect movement between February 15th and March 15th...

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...or going back earlier, 22/6/2011:

Menzies said:

Probably a good time to point out that for a long time people didn't know if there was to be a Civ V or not. I remember people redirecting Civ V to Civ Rev on wikipedia and being shouted down when I simply redirected to the series as a whole as according to them it "was Civ V". On top of that around here a lot of people declared that Civ Rev was Civ V and that it was a disgrace to the series and the end of all thing they held dear and those of us who thought that there would be a Civ V were called idiots at one time or another for thinking otherwise.

The company normally hold their cards close to their chest. Normally they release the expansions around June/July and announce them Feb/March. So maybe there might be one next year, or maybe they'll change the model all together and announce a new expansion after the next patch rounds when all the dust from E3 has settled, you never know. My bet would be that if there was to be an expansion that it will be announced march next year though.

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It fits what we've seen before, and put bluntly, if an expansion is coming they're not likely to mix it up. If there's one coming, it'll most likely be announced and released on a very similar time scale to the previous one's, as they've done for years. No DLC seems to mean one of two things at this point, they're done with the game only months after an expansion pack, or they're preparing for something bigger, as the last DLC drought heralded.

From what we've seen as well, if they release a new expansion, and within months DLC is released, that would to me be a potential sign that they are preparing to put Civ V to bed. But that's another story all together.

Menzies said:

Hey, my last piece of unfounded speculation turned out pretty well.

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Which doesn't add any validity to this thread at all. The fact that you guessed correctly last time doesn't make this guess any more qualified.

kaspergm said:

Which doesn't add any validity to this thread at all. The fact that you guessed correctly last time doesn't make this guess any more qualified.

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No, but the fact that it is based on something, and the logic has previous held well does. I'm not quite sure what you're saying now... Are you saying that; "Yes, it may happen, but I don't see it as any more likely than them announcing it at any other time", or are you saying that you don't see any reason to think that an expansion is coming, because they are two different points.

The idea that the expansion is coming is based on:
- The time between the release of G&Ks is nearly 3 times the average wait between DLCs (including the initial release and first DLC), and nearly twice the longest wait
- Limited activity in terms of things like DLC, the last time this happened the G&K was in the works
- The fact that Civ IV and III both had two expansion packs

The second idea here, and the more solid is the timeline if on is coming. This is based on the fact that:
- The last 3 expansion packs were announced on this time line
- The last 3 expansions were released on this time line
- There is no reason to think they'd suddenly change it

So do you see it as not very likely that if one is coming that it won't be announced on the timeline that I suggested, or do you just not think that there is any solid reason to think an expansion is coming, as I'd agree it's hardly solid, but there is a case there.

Basically, this is one way of us being able to get to April 1st and be able to think "well, no expansion pack" then, as if it's not announced by then it probably isn't coming, at least not this year. With no DLC incoming though, I don't see it as particularly likely that it's not in the works.

I hate these kinds of threads. You on purpose made it sound like (in your title) a definite expansion is on the way when you haven`t a clue.

That`s called misleading.

Socratatus said:

I hate these kinds of threads. You on purpose made it sound like (in your title) a definite expansion is on the way when you haven`t a clue.

That`s called misleading.

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I did include a question mark, so it's not as though I was lying.

Also, mark my words, I would rate this as very likely to happen.

I don't think they are done releasing DLC. Just because there has been half a year between the launch of G&K and now without a DLC announcement doesn't mean they won't do another DLC. G&K changed Civ V so much, there's a lot of new possibilities for DLC's. They'd be foolish not to take advantage of it.

Why has there been such a long time between G&K and now with nothing? It may have to do with X-Com coming out. They had to dedicate a lot of resources to it. Maybe they were hoping that the Civ fanbase would crossover and play X-Com just as G&K lost its novelty. Maybe they have another unannounced project they are working on, eating up company resoures.

I don't think they are done with Civ V DLCs or expansions, but I still think DLCs will happen before expansions. There's just too much fertile ground left to cover with it.

2 cents.

I wouldn't mind of having a new expansion..

I just have got G&K today.

kaspergm said:

Which doesn't add any validity to this thread at all. The fact that you guessed correctly last time doesn't make this guess any more qualified.

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This. Sure, an expansion could be coming out. It also may not be. We have one reference point (G&K) and no actual information or rumors or anything meaningful, and so that's not very much to go on.

BobDole said:

This. Sure, an expansion could be coming out. It also may not be. We have one reference point (G&K) and no actual information or rumors or anything meaningful, and so that's not very much to go on.

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I believe I counted 3, perhaps 5 reference points, and while I wasn't planning on telling the world I was pretty much thinking the exact thing last night. I think this is a well-educated speculation, and he shouldn't be getting so much flak.

I don't forsee any expansion this year, perhaps they're done entirely with them. Scattered eventual DLC and another patch or two, maybe. I would sincerely hope they're focusing on Civ 6 entirely from here on, but that's just me.

More likely IMO is that whatever they are working on isn't quite ready for holiday season so they are just keeping it for a spring release after some of us stop being overloaded with other games to play. However I'm just speculating too.

Smokeybear said:

I don't forsee any expansion this year, perhaps they're done entirely with them. Scattered eventual DLC and another patch or two, maybe. I would sincerely hope they're focusing on Civ 6 entirely from here on, but that's just me.

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I don't think they've wait such a long time between the expansion and DLC in truth, and I don't think they'd finish Civ V as is when people are practically begging for certain civilizations and features still. They have tended to go from the point of striking while the iron's hot in the past, and I don't see them passing that up either unless something big is coming again (i.e. a second expansion).

I still remember when I was shouted down for even suggesting that there was going to be Civ V, or an expansion for Civ V for that matter. I don't know, I think people on here just like shouting anything down that isn't concrete, which is a good policy I guess, as it avoids the disappointment that may follow if the speculation is false.

Now, I know this is just speculation, but it is fairly solid based on previous actions of the company. If there is to be a second expansion, based on their previous patterns (their last 3 expansions, G&Ks, BtS and Warlords) then it will almost certainly be announced in February/March (and a Thursday for some reasons as it seems...) for a June/July release. Now, consider the DLC pattern for the game so far (day gaps between releases in brackets):

Release: 21/9/10
DLC 1: 25/10/10 (34 days)
DLC 2: 16/12/10 (52 days)
DLC 3: 3/3/11 (77 days)
DLC 4: 3/5/11 (61 days)
DLC 5: 11/8/11 (100 days)
G&Ks announced: 16/2/2012 (189 days)
G&Ks: 19/6/2012 (124 days)

Since the release of G&Ks a whole 181 days have passed. Based on the fact that they really pumped out some DLC after the release of vanilla, you'd think it was very likely that if DLC for G&Ks was coming, it would have come by now. Instead we're on the verge of the longest break without any news of new releases. The previous DLC around Christmas was released 2 years ago today. If DLC was coming, surely considering this, it would have come by now. This leaves two possible explanations:

1. Civ V is done
2. A second expansion is in the works

To me the first option doesn't sit right with me, as I'd feel (as I said earlier) that if Civ V really were to be "done" after G&Ks, they've have at least had some DLC in the months following (3 by now based on the previous cycle) in order to maximise profit before moving on. By not creating more DLC, it seems likely that they would be working on something a lot bigger, so to me the second option makes the most sense in this context.

If you accept the above logic, then it is possible to discuss when such a thing would be announced then released. As I said, based on previous releases and cycles it would be announced around February/March for a June/July release, but I have more detail on this above.

Long story short though, believe what you want. Personally I don't even think we need to think much further than that, I'm almost certain that an expansion is coming, it just makes sense and I doubt they'd have an expansion, then a year off before going for another or half a year off then some DLC. People would lose interest and ultimately they wouldn't make as much money. Who knows, the only other option that makes any solid sense is that they're done with the game, and I guess I don't want to think that yet.

We'll see in February/March though. I'd keep my eye out for news on the 14th or 21st of February...

Makes sense. Yeah, it is predicting the future so of course speculation, but the industry has settled into trends within the last decade so the idea isn't pulled out of no where.

Expansion makes sense too. Isn't most DLC usually only paraded around shortly after a game's release? Very likely they are working on a final expansion while starting a new project.

I also never understood why people get their hopes up around December; I can't think of many examples of companies trying to time releases with the holiday season.

Matthew. said:

Makes sense. Yeah, it is predicting the future so of course speculation, but the industry has settled into trends within the last decade so the idea isn't pulled out of no where.

Expansion makes sense too. Isn't most DLC usually only paraded around shortly after a game's release? Very likely they are working on a final expansion while starting a new project.

I also never understood why people get their hopes up around December; I can't think of many examples of companies trying to time releases with the holiday season.

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My guess is that if they were to release more DLC, it would spell the end of expansions for the game anyhow. DLCs take time to make, and if they wanted to put out two expansions in two years (like with Warlords and BtS) they really wouldn't have the time to do both. I have absolutely no reason to believe this, but I get the impression that by the end we'll see a model like this:

Sep 2010: Civ V Release
Oct 2010- Aug 2011: DLC Run
June 2012: First Expansion
June 2013: Second Expansion
July 2013 - 2014: Second DLC Run
Sep/Oct 2016: Civilization VI Release

I'd be very happy with that as well, although after all the DLC hate last year I'm not sure what they're planning. I can honestly say there's a strong case to think that a second expansion will be announced in February or March next year for June/July release, but there's nothing to really base what they'll do next off. Although, September 2016 for Civ VI is just based off their previous patterns again, but that's more guesswork than the expansion.

Menzies said:

I don't think they've wait such a long time between the expansion and DLC in truth, and I don't think they'd finish Civ V as is when people are practically begging for certain civilizations and features still.

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I don't really care about any expansion beyond here, as I don't see there being any huge changes in the game now that they've added religion and spies already. Just adding another group of individual civilizations hardly warrants an expansion pack, and whatever bugs and minor balancing things they have left to work out, are simple patch material. What exactly do you see them adding beyond here, that warrants a full expansion? If they do, great. I just don't see what it would contain that would warrant a big chunk of my money, if it's just minor odds and ends + some new civs. DLC content alone doth not make an xpac.