Marginal Value of a Human Being

nc-1701

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So today reading the thread about the worker strike in Chicago got me thinking. What do we as a society do when the marginal value of a person becomes negative?

A few bullet pieces to clear up what I'm talking about:

By "value" I'm referring only to quantifiable values, primarily how much a person can produce by working. Also I would include less tangible but still quantifiable metric like parents caring for children, volunteer work, etc.

I do believe that as human being we have some higher moral/ethical value, but that is not what this thread is about.

By marginal value I mean the change in value for adding one additional person. So that would be the value produced by adding one additional person minus the associated costs of adding one additional person

For those with some math we can more easily write this as U(p) where U is the total output value of a particular society and p is the number of people in that society. I am asking about what it means and what we do when U'(p) < 0.

For generality we can assume that the average person p, is healthy, able bodied, and willing to work. Also we can assume she has some skills, but no specialized training or skills.

Now this person is a drain on society, through absolutely no fault of their own. They work hard, they don't consume excessively, etc. But there being alive brings down the society and actually makes it worse.


If you pay attention both Liberals and Conservatives offer different arguments, but both vehemently claim that the marginal value of a person is in fact positive. Despite circumstantial evidence it may not be now (and it's certainly reasonable to imagine it won't be in the future). Liberals argue that it only appears this way because the "rich" are grabbing all the value by exploiting the poor, while Conservatives argue that when people fail to find success or add value it's because they are "lazy" or otherwise brought it upon themselves and are undeserving.

What if they are both wrong and we reached a point where full employment (or something close) is simply not economically efficient, because production and value can be maximized with some much smaller percentage of the people in our society. Leaving many not just without jobs, but permanent drags to society.

Then what do we do? Create a massive unsustainable welfare state? Reduce the standard of living until it's cheaper to pay people sweatshops than keep machines running? Just let it happen and watch callously as starvation evens out the population again?

I have no idea, but I started thinking today and felt like sharing.
 
I don't know. I think as long as there's enough food being produced in the world to feed the population in it, there's no reason to require people to starve whatever they do for a living. Or whether they work or not. The problem then becomes to keep them satisfied with their way of life, perhaps?

I suggest bread and circuses for everyone.

I'm not sure I've followed your reasoning, though.
 
Then what do we do? Create a massive unsustainable welfare state?
What makes you think that in such a situation the welfare state would be unsustainable?
 
@Leoreth: It will be socially unsustainable even if it isn't economically unsustainable.

The cold, hard truth of the matter is that if people do actually have a negative marginal value then they are doomed. I'm not persuaded that they do, but if they do you won't be able to save them.
 
He seems to suggest because the total output isn't sufficient to support the welfare state.
 
Even if we could do it in rude physical terms I think the "producers" ( not trying to sound like Ayn Rand here, I promise ) will begin to resent supporting everyone else. We are not the Klackons, and if your solution to a problem involves treating us as such then I suggest you scrap it and start over.
 
He seems to suggest because the total output isn't sufficient to support the welfare state.
But his entire argument seems to assume a state of society A where every member of society can contribute to society and most basic demands are met for everyone (this is an idealized view of real societies of course). Whether that's still the case or has been in the past is the open question, but irrelevant.

Now if we assume constant population (it's not that population growth is a significant factor in most developed economies), if we ever end up in a state of society B where certain members aren't a "net contribution" anymore we can surmise that this is because productivity has increased, which means that society as a whole is still wealthy enough to meet everyone's needs. So yes, my argument is the typical liberal argument that in this case the problem lies in distribution. Insert strawmanny phrases like "evil rich" at your leisure.
 
The thing that strikes me is that in the society described above, where everyone are (is?) fit and has skills, they are by neccesity all positive (or negative, but that would'nt last) contributers as long as they have sufficient recources to do whatever they do. So the problem is that the recources ar insufficient. Step 1 then would be some kind of global union, so that the overpopulated societies can "benefit" from societies with plenty of recources. If there aren't enough recources globally, and we can't space travel or terraform, I don't think we have any other choice than starvation (or genocide and birth-policies).

Tell me if I'm stupid for saying this.
 
Well, are you saying any more than that growth can't continue indefinitely?

Sooner or later mankind has to reach some equilibrium of sustainable industry. So that the only inputs are continued radiation from the sun. (Or perhaps from nuclear fission.)

And all resources are recycled indefinitely.
 
Well, are you saying any more than that growth can't continue indefinitely?

I guess not, but with this scenario that's the only thing I can imagine that would make a person a net "penalty" to society.

The problematisation I put forth presume that people reproduce in a way that "enlarges" the population without thought about the limitation of recources.

Endless recycleing doesn't help if the population is larger than what the recource basis can provide at a single moment. Most emportantly: if there isn't enough food (or water) to feed the total population this moment. Like if you need three days to make what the population require (how is that spelled) in one day.
 
Maybe it's just because we're on a Civ forum, but I love how matter-of-fact and simplistic these solutions are. Like the part where we "make a global union" and "make it so overpopulated societies can benefit ( not sure why this is in quotes ) from societies with plenty of resources."

Who is doing this and what magic power is being used to ensure this/these individual(s) are not hopelessly corrupt? Why should I suddenly believe that a "world union" would be less hopelessly corrupt than any other government?

Any solution that refers to humanity as though it were a large, predictable and pliable machine is immediately suspect unless we simply assume you're talking about extreme repression.
 
Who is doing this and what magic power is being used to ensure this/these individual(s) are not hopelessly corrupt? Why should I suddenly believe that a "world union" would be less hopelessly corrupt than any other government?

Not to mention the fact that a lot of people are just dicks.
"OHHHHH LAZY WELFARE BUMS" they'll just say. "GET THEM OFF THEIR LAZY BEHINDS AND FORCE THEM INTO LABOR BY ANY MEANS POSSIBLE."
 
what makes you think its monotonically decreasing :P

in all seriousness, this is a bit of a problem and I really have no idea what a solution for it may be. But its certainly important to I guess make the consumption sustainable to begin with, because theres going to be gigantic issues of soil degradation, scarce resources, etc etc.

it may not be pretty but gotta feed everyone.

developed countries probably can plan for this though, and social customs will have people have less kids and have later average age of first child. Population will (hopefully) stagnate off a bit.
 
Too many dynamic variables to really give a good answer.

Heck, that's never stopped me before ;)


So today reading the thread about the worker strike in Chicago got me thinking. What do we as a society do when the marginal value of a person becomes negative?

A few bullet pieces to clear up what I'm talking about:

By "value" I'm referring only to quantifiable values, primarily how much a person can produce by working. Also I would include less tangible but still quantifiable metric like parents caring for children, volunteer work, etc.

I do believe that as human being we have some higher moral/ethical value, but that is not what this thread is about.

By marginal value I mean the change in value for adding one additional person. So that would be the value produced by adding one additional person minus the associated costs of adding one additional person

For those with some math we can more easily write this as U(p) where U is the total output value of a particular society and p is the number of people in that society. I am asking about what it means and what we do when U'(p) < 0.

For generality we can assume that the average person p, is healthy, able bodied, and willing to work. Also we can assume she has some skills, but no specialized training or skills.

Now this person is a drain on society, through absolutely no fault of their own. They work hard, they don't consume excessively, etc. But there being alive brings down the society and actually makes it worse.


If you pay attention both Liberals and Conservatives offer different arguments, but both vehemently claim that the marginal value of a person is in fact positive. Despite circumstantial evidence it may not be now (and it's certainly reasonable to imagine it won't be in the future). Liberals argue that it only appears this way because the "rich" are grabbing all the value by exploiting the poor, while Conservatives argue that when people fail to find success or add value it's because they are "lazy" or otherwise brought it upon themselves and are undeserving.

What if they are both wrong and we reached a point where full employment (or something close) is simply not economically efficient, because production and value can be maximized with some much smaller percentage of the people in our society. Leaving many not just without jobs, but permanent drags to society.

Then what do we do? Create a massive unsustainable welfare state? Reduce the standard of living until it's cheaper to pay people sweatshops than keep machines running? Just let it happen and watch callously as starvation evens out the population again?

I have no idea, but I started thinking today and felt like sharing.


So the modern economy no longer needs armies of workers to get stuff done?

Modern economists say that people will retrain and "do something else" like a service.

Depending on the answer to your question, this is either correct or terribly wrong advice.



If we have technologically reached the point where we have "extra" people, then logically it seems we must have a big welfare/big government system where people's food is paid for and the rest is up to them. Some kind of minimum lifestyle stipend with redistributed tax money to pay for it.

Then the free marketer reaches the end of that logic train, blinks, and starts arguing that we aren't at that point yet.

There is also some moral repulsion at a welfare state. One of the best ways to cut costs is to increase "free" birth control if you are darned cynical about a human's worth.



Since the era of cheap oil is over, reduced standard of living to keep the sweatshops open is neck and neck with the minimum standard of living welfare state.
 
So today reading the thread about the worker strike in Chicago got me thinking. What do we as a society do when the marginal value of a person becomes negative?

A few bullet pieces to clear up what I'm talking about:

You could have stopped right there and have been largely accurate.
 
The robotic labor wars have begun... (Can't come up with a better joke at the minute...)
 
The robotic labor wars have begun... (Can't come up with a better joke at the minute...)

It's pretty much looking that way.
http://techcrunch.com/2012/11/13/foxconn-allegedly-replacing-human-workers-with-robots/

Foxconn has been planning to buy 1 million robots to replace human workers and it looks like that change, albeit gradual, is about to start.

The company is allegedly paying $25,000 per robot &#8211; about three times a worker&#8217;s average salary &#8211; and they will replace humans in assembly tasks. The plans have been in place for a while &#8211; I spoke to Foxconn reps about this a year ago &#8211; and it makes perfect sense. Humans are messy, they want more money, and having a half-a-million of them in one factory is a recipe for unrest. But what happens after the halls are clear of careful young men and women and instead full of whirring robots? What happens to China&#8217;s &#8220;burgeoning&#8221; economy?


Also:
http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article.cfm?articleid=3211

So it will likely disappoint many people that four prominent economists assembled for a recent panel discussion to explore the link between technology and job creation were, in large part, bearish in their outlook. Some went so far as to suggest that technology actually increases unemployment and adds to other problems in the U.S. economy, notably the growing wage disparities between an extremely elite group of earners and everyone else.

... Working with fellow MIT professor Andrew McAfee, Brynjolfsson compared the market capitalization and payrolls of four of the biggest tech companies. His conclusion: While the companies had astronomical values on Wall Street, their job production was minimal...

The four -- Apple, Amazon, Facebook and Google -- at the time had a market cap in the neighborhood of $1 trillion, which is roughly 6.25% of the combined market cap of all U.S. companies. But the four employ about 190,000 people, fewer than the number of jobs the U.S. economy needs to add approximately every six weeks to just keep pace with population growth. The implication, said Brynjolfsson, is that even hugely successful tech companies cannot be counted on to create the kinds of jobs the economy needs.


Some argue that it is the unfettered mergers of corporations into near-monopolies has killed off job growth:
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/features/2010/1003.lynn-longman.html

But while the mystery of what killed the great American jobs machine has yielded no shortage of debatable answers, one of the more compelling potential explanations has been conspicuously absent from the national conversation: monopolization. The word itself feels anachronistic, a relic from the age of the Rockefellers and Carnegies. But the fact that the term has faded from our daily discourse doesn&#8217;t mean the thing itself has vanished&#8212;in fact, the opposite is true. In nearly every sector of our economy, far fewer firms control far greater shares of their markets than they did a generation ago.

Indeed, in the years after officials in the Reagan administration radically altered how our government enforces our antimonopoly laws, the American economy underwent a truly revolutionary restructuring. Four great waves of mergers and acquisitions&#8212;in the mid-1980s, early &#8217;90s, late &#8217;90s, and between 2003 and 2007&#8212;transformed America&#8217;s industrial landscape at least as much as globalization. Over the same two decades, meanwhile, the spread of mega-retailers like Wal-Mart and Home Depot and agricultural behemoths like Smithfield and Tyson&#8217;s resulted in a more piecemeal approach to consolidation, through the destruction or displacement of countless independent family-owned businesses.

It is now widely accepted among scholars that small businesses are responsible for most of the net job creation in the United States. It is also widely agreed that small businesses tend to be more inventive, producing more patents per employee, for example, than do larger firms. Less well established is what role concentration plays in suppressing new business formation and the expansion of existing businesses, along with the jobs and innovation that go with such growth. Evidence is growing, however, that the radical, wide-ranging consolidation of recent years has reduced job creation at both big and small firms simultaneously. At one extreme, ever more dominant Goliaths increasingly lack any real incentive to create new jobs; after all, many can increase their earnings merely by using their power to charge customers more or pay suppliers less. At the other extreme, the people who run our small enterprises enjoy fewer opportunities than in the past to grow their businesses. The Goliaths of today are so big and so adept at protecting their turf that they leave few niches open to exploit.
 
Let's see, how to put everyone out of work with robots. :hmm:



We need Google's self driving car to put truck drivers and taxis out of business. (And the cop/lawyer/judge system takes a huge hit. Each DWI gets them $4000)

Some kind of engineered grass that grows 3 inches tall and then stops growing so you never have to cut it would do wonders.

That holographic doctor from Star Trek could replace real doctors. (This still needs a lot of work!)

They already got programs to write basic news stories.

3D printers could really make a dent against manufacturers.

Or a food server, starbucks coffee maker robot like Baxter.
http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Artic...eality-Service-Jobs-are-Next-to-Go.aspx#page1



The entire financial management industry could be fired without any ill effects. :lol:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-...-index-funds-beat-996-managers-over-ten-years

According to the folks at the Motley Fool, only ten of the ten thousand actively managed mutual funds available managed to beat the S&P 500 consistently over the course of the past ten years.

Don't even need robots to cut that dead weight off. Only 1 in a 1000 know what they are doing? bwahahah
 
peak oil might save us as the cost of just transporting goods around the world becomes uneconomical and local labour might start to produce again, food from within a 100 k's of you,( in season), people making chairs out of renewable local timber,and with a leap of the imagination even people repairing and making shoes in your town... after all non of these people will have acess to the ecconomic miracle of world trade anymore, and they will not just go away and die in the corner
 
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