From my experiences on higher level difficulties, and judging by the poll, I'd say about 9 times out of 10 the AIs will choose order. The ones that don't choose orderwill 9 times out of 10 choose autocracy. I have yet to see any AI choose freedom of their own free will (I say this meaning that the only time I have ever seen AIs adopt freedom as their first ideology is when my culture was influential over them or I made freedom the world ideology). It's like the AIs have a predisposed hatred of freedom. Almost all of the AIs try to go super wide ICS mode and then obviously choose order, and then the ones that are supposed to play tall and would benefit from freedom the most (Persia, Brazil, India, Ethiopia, have all actually done this to me) choose autocracy. This stinks because I almost always choose freedom, but that just means that you have to stay vigilant with your tourism even in the early game, because you know that a lot of people are going to choose different ideologies than you, so it's best to just prepare for that.