Generally speaking I find Grassland to be a little stronger than Plains, mostly for its flexibility. Analyzing citizens in groups of 3, before Civil Service or Fertilizer come into play:
Grassland Options:
Option 1)
2 citizens work farms for 3

each, third citizen works mining luxury for 3

and some

.
Total yield: 6

, 3

, some

. City continues to grow from city tile food.
Option 2)
2 citizens work farms for 3

each, third citizen works plantation luxury (base tile assumed to be Grassland) for 2

and some

Total yield: 8

, some

. City grows from city tile food, and this group provides +2 surplus food.
Plains Options:
Option 1)
3 citizens work farms for 2

and 1

each.
Total yield: 6

and 3

. City grows from base food. Compare this to Grassland option 1: same production, no gold.
Option 2)
2 citizens work farms for 2

and 1

each, third citizen works mining luxury for 3

and some

.
Total yield: 4

, 5

, and some

. City stagnates as third citizen needs to use city base food to survive.
Option 3)
2 citizens work farms for 2

and 1

each, third citizen works plantation or camp luxury (base tile assumed to be plains) for 1

, 1

and some

.
Total yield: 5

, 3

, and some

. City grows slowly, as this citizen group draws 1 food away from base yield, leaving only 1 for growth.
Of course, the above ignores Bonus resources - I'm assuming those are equal across any start. There is some evidence out there that the game engine values Plains (!?) more highly than Grassland though, and gives Plains starts fewer Bonuses, where Grassland and Desert tend to get more. Jungle is about even with Grassland, and Tundra just plain sucks regardless. Speaking generally, any start should have enough bonus resources that Citizens 1-3 turn out okay, it's Citizens 4-6 that this really tells for, and this is where I find Plains starts bog down and Grass starts keep on truckin'.
I've also totally neglected Civil Service and Fertilizer's effects as I'm just trying to analyze starts (pre-medieval era). My work after that isn't as rigorous, but I still think Grassland has a lead, albeit the gap narrows quite a bit as Plains can start generating surplus food.