Any guess on what will happen to Erdo-Turkey now that it downed a russian plane?

Apparently Russia is not reacting very kindly to the dead pilot and downed aircraft by Turkey, over Syria. Moreover it appears Putin names Turkey not just as an affiliate, but a trade partner of Isis (nice touch, and likely true anyway...), so any reaction by r16 or anyone in the know on what is going on now there?

http://www.theguardian.com/world/li...urkish-planes-near-syrian-border-live-updates

the quardian said:

(article's title) Putin calls Turkey 'accomplices of terrorists' after Russian jet shot down

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For those posters not familiar with the gas-lines in the area, if Russia cuts gas to Turkey then it will be pretty bad already, but maybe this will escalate into other directions.

This whole ISIS affair is going to drag us all into World War III if we don't extract ourselves from it somehow

Its too soon to predict. So far it seems that Russia has reason to be angry on Turkey and I am curious what will Turkey do. I would not like to be in group supporting Turkey in this, doesnt matter if shooting down of airplane would be justified by some international law. I have allways thought that both countries just provoke each other for home audience, but now it should happen that we will be dragged into this too.

Turkey is a horrible NATO ally, especially under their current dictator. They've been supporting ISIS for a while and it's no wonder they don't take kindly to Russian involvement in the conflict, since it goes directly against their interests in the region.

Unfortunately nothing is going to happen, since Turkey is such a "valuable" and strategic ally for the U.S. They are going to continue backing Turkey, of course, they don't really have a choice politically speaking I don't think. The worst we'll hear is some soft diplomacy from Washington and a couple choice words maybe, and some sort of a "We've got to work together" type statements coming out of NATO capitals..

This puts pressure on Washington more than on anyone, I think, but they have a lot of experience having jerks, terrorists, and douchebags as allies, so they'll weather the storm and get through this crisis just fine. Russia is going to milk this as much as they can, but in the end the only impact for them should really be where they fly their sorties and how careful they are about flying too close to Turkish borders... and even more fuel for their anti-western propaganda.

My guess is that nothing much. They'll shout at each other and then something happens for them to "get distracted" from this incident to finally put it away for political observers and then historians to occasionally refer to.

Or maybe it's my wish, not guess...

warpus said:

Unfortunately nothing is going to happen

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Hmm... "Unfortunately" is an evaluation opposite to mine and I wonder what would you like to happen to call it fortunate? I hardly can imagine an outcome better than "nothing" given the risks, the circumstances and the options.

RIP Russian pilot

I hope Russian tourists will reconsider their love affair with Turkish beaches after this. But something tells me things will go back to normal soon.

Tigranes said:

RIP Russian pilot

I hope Russian tourists will reconsider their love affair with Turkish beaches after this. But something tells me things will go back to normal soon.

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I think Russia has visa free travel for Turkish citizens too.

Daw said:

Hmm... "Unfortunately" is an evaluation opposite to mine and I wonder what would you like to happen to call it fortunate?

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I would like to see the west punishing Turkey for supporting ISIS, for example. But yeah, unfortunately that isn't going to happen.

I do not want to see a war between Russia or Turkey or whatever. Or any sort of military conflict.

warpus said:

I would like to see the west punishing Turkey for supporting ISIS, for example.

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Punishing like how? I guess that common Turks are not exactly happy with the news either, generally. So, punishing the whole Turkey would be much punishing the wrong people. I wouldn't like that.

warpus said:

I do not want to see a war between Russia or Turkey or whatever. Or any sort of military conflict.

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Yep. Me too.

This has me worried...

Daw said:

Hmm... "Unfortunately" is an evaluation opposite to mine and I wonder what would you like to happen to call it fortunate? I hardly can imagine an outcome better than "nothing" given the risks, the circumstances and the options.

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If by nothing you mean no war -- yeah it's fortunate. But if by nothing he meant no reevaluation of bilateral relation -- that would truly be unfortunate. Russia can hurt Turkey were it hurts the most: economically. At least the ban on air travel does seem SOMETHING Russians could do. And next time Turkish helicopters cross Armenian border bolder actions must send clearer message than nothing.

I don't think anything will happen long-term. Russia will piss and moan but I'm sorry, this is what you get with combat operations. Not everything can go perfectly to plan and *gasp* mishaps and accidents happen and you lose people. I'm not being flippant, it's just that if they are not expecting losses and if they are also operating dangerously close to a well-armed state that they are not fully co-operating with then they are just foolish. Now I don't think the Russians are foolish. To some extent they have to piss and moan and protest but that will be it.

Daw said:

Punishing like how?

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In ways that would get them to stop what they're doing in Syria and with ISIS, but wouldn't negatively impact your average Turkish citizen.

My guess is that not a lot will happen.

Russia will huff and puff, and then do nothing.

What could Putin actually do, without, as has been pointed out, starting WW3?

And strictly speaking, a plane violating Turkish air space - without good cause - is going to come to grief sooner or later, or Turkey is going to look foolish.

It was only in Turkish airspace for a couple minutes. My guess is that Putin did this on purpose so that he could now have some extra political ammunition, for both at home as well as on the geopolitical stage.

Tigranes said:

If by nothing you mean no war -- yeah it's fortunate. But if by nothing he meant no reevaluation of bilateral relation -- that would truly be unfortunate. Russia can hurt Turkey were it hurts the most: economically.

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Economical sword is double-edged. And it is a low precision weapon. So, using it would be punishing wrong people and on both sides.

Tigranes said:

At least the ban on air travel does seem SOMETHING Russians could do.

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Well, Russians can do plenty of things, including really nasty ones. I am unsure about whether they should do any though. Basically, because none will bring the pilot back.

Tigranes said:

And next time Turkish helicopters cross Armenian border bolder actions must send clearer message than nothing.

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... And no aggravation will, either.

Overall, I somehow have a sneaky feeling that there are people out there in the world, who HOPE for a massive aggravation and try their best to provoke it. Personally, I hate being manipulated, so I hate going in that direction.

hobbsyoyo said:

I don't think anything will happen long-term. Russia will piss and moan but I'm sorry, this is what you get with combat operations. Not everything can go perfectly to plan and *gasp* mishaps and accidents happen and you lose people. I'm not being flippant, it's just that if they are not expecting losses and if they are also operating dangerously close to a well-armed state that they are not fully co-operating with then they are just foolish. Now I don't think the Russians are foolish. To some extent they have to piss and moan and protest but that will be it.

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Yeah, my thoughts were going along pretty much the same lines, more or less, and in somewhat different wording. But generally, revising the flight pattern there seems to be logical. But I thought it just didn't count for an outcome worth mentioning...

warpus said:

It was only in Turkish airspace for a couple minutes.

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... if not seconds.

Maybe Russia will give extra support to the Kurds now to spite Turkey? Might even give the Rojavans air cover to protect against Turkish air strikes.

warpus said:

In ways that would get them to stop what they're doing in Syria and with ISIS, but wouldn't negatively impact your average Turkish citizen.

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And that might be particularly what?

warpus said:

It was only in Turkish airspace for a couple minutes. My guess is that Putin did this on purpose so that he could now have some extra political ammunition, for both at home as well as on the geopolitical stage.

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There has been reports and warnings from the Turks for weeks about violations of their airspace. But I don't think this was a calculated move by Russia to push the boundaries of Turkish resolve.

I believe it and all the previous violations were accidents - it's hard to navigate a tricky border (it's not like their are lines in the sky to let you know) during a combat situation at Mach 2 or whatever. This incident and the others probably shows that the Russians were not as careful as they could have been but I still don't believe it was intentional nor are they entirely to blame (other than the fact that they don't have to be operating in Syria, obviously).

But then neither are the Turks entirely to blame because just like it's hard to navigate a border at Mach 2, it's hard to be 100% sure a plane is or is not violating your airspace with a convoluted border. Radar is good but it's not perfect and the Russians had been previously warned to knock it off. Add to it the fact that the Syrians still have an air force with the same kind of jets as the Russians and that probably neither the Russians or Syrians talk to the Turk air control monitors (much less file flight plans, lol) means that the Turks can never be certain who is doing what in their airspace.

But because all of the above, both sides are going to shout it out and resume doing the things they were already doing.

@Sanctions on Turkey from Russia -

Why? What would that solve? And if Russia tried that they would probably get slapped with more hurtful sanctions in retaliation.