Mathematical analysis of Civ2

I was doing a search for Civ2 on Google and found this "mathematical analysis of Civilization II":

http://www.adk24.ucam.org/civ2.html

It probably will give most civers a headache...

The scary thing is I have the 'gist' of all that in my head.

They chickened out on the Marketplaces, Banks, and Stock Exchange aspects. They should have calculated the value using the luxury aspect as well.

This caught my eye from the main page.

Do does this explain what happened to starlifter?


(Ironic thought: If it was, then the webpage would probably have been filled with lols. )

Not realy much that an experienced player realy needs, in my oppinion.

I saw that on Apolyton.Net a while back. He was a student at Cambridge in the late 90's. Just analyzing improvements ignores things like the free nature of Michelangelo's Chapel (once you've "paid" the construction cost, of course) and the one-time and ongoing trade increases from caravan/freight delivery. He figures a Factory benefits over 4 shields; I usually wait till 7 or 8 at least.

A nice enough attempt at quantification (for an undergraduate), but there are three flaws that graduates should fix:

1) The work posted is partial/marginal analysis -- simple enough and good enough for indicators. Better would be a global/matrixed approach, perhaps a multi variate equation with multiple objectives & constraints.

2) The work posted is not risk adjusted -- the threat of barbs and AI activity merits some 'risk adjustments' either in funds set aside to buy back/replace losses or in defensive units to protect assets, deter incursions.

3) The work posted is static analysis -- adjustments exist due to the dynamic aspects of the game. Given the opportunities, the rate of return on investments is not constant nor is the opportunity cost of partaking those investments. Better analysis would include the 'awareness' of the time horizon, the interest rate, and the val;uation of the overall objective.

I came across this one a long time ago ... another drawback is that this analysis seems to ignore the comparative value of trade routes plus superhighways & airports; for example, despite it's higher rush-build value, superhighways are considerably more effective in happiness management than stock exchanges, and among other things, negating any need for temples. ...

Quite a lot of what he says is either blatantly obvious to me or simply beyond me (I don't want to spend forever and a day reading the whole thing). I don't think he considered changing workers into merchants/entertainers.

Obviously civ does have formulae that govern everything (otherwise how does it function?), but most of them seem too trivial or too complex to bother with in something that is nothing more than a game.

Personally, I thiunk the best approach is the experimental one; see what works best for you. But at the same time don't bother building stock-exchanges in cities of size 1!

Still, he has a point. Are those formulas correct? Is the realistic enough?

"formulas"

If we're to be mathematical, talk of 'formulae.'
I should imagine the 'formulae' are more or less ok, if they we're way out, someone would have emailed him so he would rethink it.