Gotm20-Spain Wild Speculation Thread

cracker

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Lets start this ball rolling a little early this month so that all of the professional Odds makers can start taking bets on what they think Gotm20-Spain will look like.

We have several major announcements to reveal to you this month and also want to make plans on opening the pregame strategy discussion a few days early to allow for a few more pregame discussion opportunities.

So lets see how many players have honed their "Cracker prediction skills" to a new level. What are the features that you feel have been disigned into Gotm20 and what are some of the things you may be doing to prepare for the game.

Since many of you have already memorized what you think the AI's next moves will be, let's see if you can use what you know about the mind of Cracker (as supported and advised by the illustrious GOTM staff) to accurately predict what Gotm20 will look like.

If you were looking to invite one or two new players to join in playing this next GOTM what would be some things that you would recommend that these new players do to get the most enjoyment and benefit out of the upcoming game experience.

Good luck and have fun!!
 
My guess is that it will be a Deity game.:)
 
Perhaps a reasonable amount of water about, with a civilized and competitive old world, and an untamed new world ripe for colonising by the most enterprising civilization.

Perhaps the new world will have savage inhabitants plus Aztecs and Iroquois who have some limitations on how advanded they can develop. We saw something of AI civs that are a little out of the ordinary in game 19, so I am sure Cracker & team can tweak the settings to produce some interesting AI behaviour.

Certainly Emperor or Diety to keep it quite challenging (or even damn near impossible for an amateur like me... but I am sure to learn something new again regardless.)

Rules for new players - think carefully and think ahead. Plan where you want your cities to be and why. Take your time.
 
Deity is a good guess. Since our UU is the Spanish Missionary (aka conquistador), we need somethig to reach after navigation. It might be something like the imperialism map, with key resources on another continent.

PS: No diety, please. :D
 
Tao's speculation also dovetails perfectly with Spanish history and its use of the UU, so I think a neo-imperialism map is a strong possibility. The advantage would lie in the UU's ability to locate resources in the interior more quickly than others. Given the timing - late Middle Ages - I would guess that these resources would be aminly luxuries, although coal is a possibility.

If Moonsinger is right about the game being at deity level, then I would expect the sort of elbow room provided in the Ottomans game, to better allow the Spanish to hold their own. This could be achieved with a start just like the Ottomans, with no one competing for the rich territory north of the starting spot. The argument against this is that it would duplicate the last game. A different way to achieve the same result would be to alter the recent tendency of over-crowding the map by having a less-than-standard number of civs. This way the Spanish could be placed in a more central location, where exploration could lead to a few more tech trades before falling behind, without getting squeezed by their initially bigger neighbors.

I also expect much weaker neighbors than the recent homelands of the Gallic Swordsman, Mercenary, Hoplite, Legionnaire, and Mounted Warrior. Not India, for obvious reasons, but maybe France and England, with whom the Spanish can profitably trade techs. One aggressive civ like Germany or Russia, but not both right on the border. Another possibility is a neighbor that ignores culture - say the Zulu or Rome - so that the Spanish religious trait could have some impact in the early going... but this is probably too circuitous to occur.
 
I wouldn't mind betting on two Archipeligo groups. One for Spain, England and North Africa, and the second for the Americas. The two would need Navigation to gain contact. When they do Spain and the other Civs in that Archipeligo would be technologically advanced.

So, Deity is a good guess, but I have a sneaking feeling we might also start with a pre-popped settler. It may also be the case that one or more Civs near the Spanish could start with an additional tech. I would also guess that there will be a lot of scientific civs near the spanish at the start.
 
I am quessing Deity too, since the difficulty has been raised now monthly.

gotm 17 - regent

gotm 18 - monarch

gotm 19 - emperor

( gotm 20 - deity ? ;) )

Spanish are commercial, so i'm guessing we'll start in a terrain containing lots of rivers, bonus food and plenty of room for expansion (commercial = less corruption).

As i recall they were also religious, so cracker might have not given Spanish lot of Luxury resources, thus forcing them to build the cheap temples to keep population happy in larger cities.
 
I like the idea of two large continents to represent the old world and the new... with an archipelago/island in between belonging to the English. With no EW crossing of course :)

As for advice to new players... reading winner's timelines from recent GotM, Cracker's quick start articles and Bamspeedy's Deity settlers.


regards


Ted
 
Originally posted by TedJackson

As for advice to new players... reading winner's timelines from recent GotM, Cracker's quick start articles and Bamspeedy's Deity settlers.

I couldn't agree more. It worked for me! (I think) :crazyeye:
 
Originally posted by mad-bax
I wouldn't mind betting on two Archipeligo groups. One for Spain, England and North Africa, and the second for the Americas. The two would need Navigation to gain contact. When they do Spain and the other Civs in that Archipeligo would be technologically advanced.


Yes for the two archipelog groups but i would put
- England / France / Portugal & ... Spain
- Aztecs / Iroquois / America ?

Then Spain would commercial & religious with some facilities to build caravel cheaper because they had a massive fleet at the time.

I fear deity level. The few times I have tried I was badly beaten & hopeless

PS : Where can I find Bamspeedy Deity settler thread
 
[intro]
Once again the moon had come full circle, and the hour of Prediction was near. Leaving his Gallic warriors asleep in the camp, Ambiorix retreated into the misty forest, carefully holding what seemed to be a round object, covered by a cloth.
In a clearing near a small stream he sat down. A blue-greenish haze rose from the water, and the moon peeked from behind the clouds when he uncovered the magic object : a large crystal ball, with an '18' written on it in frosted glass.
His muscles became tense as he concentrated and peered into the ball - it seemed to contain marble slivers that obstructed the view, but as he peered harder, they seemed to dissolve and an image was appearing. Ambiorix didn't dare clear his throat or make a sound as the image became clearer and clearer - it was the map of GOTM 20, but at first too far away to see any details. then the image came closer and closer and revealed...

... nothing but FOG units !

Aahaaaargh ! Ambiorix rose in frustration. The ball would not help him, he realised. He laid down near the stream, using the ball as a neck-rest and started to think. How would GOTM 20 be like ? He'd better come up with something good, he realised.
[/intro]


Let's see what we have to base our prediction upon : previous GOTM's, about 2000 years of Spanish history, and a very subjective impression of Spanish culture - okay, could be worse.

History first : most important events that come to mind are :
- isolated location due to natural borders (sea, Pyrenees)
- the reconquista : battling the Moors out of the peninsula.
- the discovery of America right thereafter (1492), in search of trade/luxuries
- the incredible wealth that came from the new lands : tons of gold and silver, which they used mainly to build castles. I'm not a history expert, but apparantly a common saying was that the Spaniards had found a way to 'turn gold into stone'. Add to that the general attitude that the spanish rather liked paying for having something build, rather than building it themselves.
- the forging of an empire where 'the sun didn't set'.
- wars with all possible civilizations for colonies (against France in Louisiana, against the Americans in Cuba, against Portugal and the Aztecs in S-America, ...) and within Europe.

The previous GOTM shows that Cracker can be quite creative in setting up starting units, AI-traits and map-conditions, so if we blend all the above in one soup we get (drums) :

a hot, wet, half-continents-half-archipelago deity-game where Spain is on a large island or small continent with only one other civ. this might very well be the Arabs (nice for the civ3 and Mac players), but I'm rather betting on the agressive Zulu. I somehow have a feeling that something special will be done with the starting location : an extra settler, or two settlers at different, distant locations, to create an instant-colony. Don't know if the latter is technically possible but it would be quite something if it were - just imagine the pregame discussion on whether the capitol and palace should go to the first or the second settler ! Im also guessing the starting location has flood plains, plains and mountains.
In any case, the extra settler and isolated oponent would help lesser mortals (like myself) to stay alive at this level. :)

From the starting island it will be possible to reach small isolated islands (Azores, Canary islands, Madeira, Baleares, ...) and do some island-hopping to the big promised land, covered in gold and luxuries (and jungle), where we meet a crippled Aztec population, or a barbarian one. The island hopping could be done by literally reaching one island after another, or via shallow waters (sea-tiles or even coastal-tiles) where a suicide galley/galleon could rest.
On another contintent are our other opponents (perhaps Americans, Germans, French, English and some others to balance civ-traits and UU's), also hopping-mad to go island-hunting.
Spain might also be at the 'right' of the map, so searching for luxuries eastwards would get us to the west (confused yet ?).
If a civ is modded, it might be the English, who could provide a swarm of privateers (mimicking the pirates that attacked the silver-fleet, and maybe also a hint to the sinking of the Armada).
If Spain gets an extra unit, it would be the inquisator, who would somehow enhance the chance of a cultural flip.

On a less serious note :
- the surrounding sea will be teeming with fish, aching to jump into a paella
- the game won't let you play between noon and 4 PM
- Every now and then a dialog will pop up with 'I want some tapas' or 'I want some sherry', after which you have to type that word to continue. If you don't, three guys from Monty Python will barge through the door, dressed in spanish inquisition clothes screaming... <and now YOU continue....>
 
Game difficulty: I believe it will be emperor again, because gotm19 was more like an emperor training game. Everything you possibly could ask for (luxuries, resources, weak neighbours) was right there. So I would think a real emperor game with a more difficult starting position.
2 clusters of archipelago could be, with an ocean in between so one needs navigation for crossing.
Map size probably large with lots of water.
 
I guess it will be a beyond deity game and only 10 players will win it. I hope to have at least one bonus resource and one lux nearby. I also hope the game would be less modded that the current one.

Think that the Arabs might be very close to Spain and we'll have to race to get the good lands before them. Maybe a game with no rivers/ lakes nearby to draw irrigation from 10 squares away.

What about a strange shaped map, with Gibraltar and the new world?
 
I concur with Ronald about this being a more difficult Emperor level game, using GOTM19 as training. I also agree agree with the others, that there will be 2 worlds separated, so that we need to discover navigation and hopefully our UU becomes valuable.

I predict our world may have a large set of mountains separating us from our neighbors and some good luxes. But the real good stuff is probably across the ocean, so we will be building our Navy and having our way with the world, unlike GOTM19, where many players never really built many ships.
 
I'm guessing a dryish start, based on Spanish geography, and possibly a position isolated by mountains from the rest of the starting continent (same reason). I anticipate lots of commercial and/or expansionist civs, to give the Spanish competition in settling and taming new lands.

There should be at least some lands that are not accessible until navigation, and these lands should be inhabited either by a backward civ, or by no-one at all -- making the game in part a race to settle them --- and be rich in luxuries and and natural resources.

I anticipate little trouble with land barbarians, but possibly some beefed up sea units beyond the squid to represent pirates.

Renata
 
Originally posted by Renata
I'm guessing a dryish start, based on Spanish geography, and possibly a position isolated by mountains from the rest of the starting continent (same reason)...
Renata

That was my thinking too Renata. I wouldn't be at all suprised to see a Plains start with no close river.

For other Civs, I would pick 7 out of these;-

England (VERY surprised if they are not in it!)
Ottomans OR Arabs
France OR Keltoi
1 of America, Iroquois OR most likely Aztecs
Carthage
Japan
Minoan (wild card entry)

Land mass would be continents rather than Pangaea. Maybe 4 separate land masses. Nearest luxury will be wine, iron and horses should be close but we might need a bit of early conquest for Saltpeter and later strategics.

Difficulty level; given the non-river start and need for early Navigation, I would say Monarchy most likely.
 
What I'm guessing is this:

1) Spain will start on a continent that will contain the other European colonial powers nearby (France and England) but separated by rough terrain or water. The Arabs, perhaps restricted in some way, will also be nearby.
2) That maybe Germany, Ottomans, Russia, India, and China will be farther away (Columbus was trying to get to India/China remember?).
3) That another continent, reachable only after Navigation (when conquistadors are available)/Magnetism, that will contain the Aztecs and Iroquois who will have their tech, especially naval, stunted in some way.
4) The Aztecs and Iroquois will be separated by and extensive jungle to prevent one from conquering the other before the Europeans arrive
5) Neither iron or horses will be found in "America."
6) Most luxuries will either be in "America" (furs, gems, wine), India (ivory) or China (silks, spices, dyes, incense).
 
I wonder if Cracker already has this game setup or likes to read everything in our discussions and says" Hey, that's a good idea" or better yet," Ha, they all think this, so i will be sure to give them the opposite:eek:

Either way, it is fun to play.

I do like the idea though of having a land mass with no civs, maybe with wild barbs running around that need to be "tamed" that has lots of gold and goodies, that is only accessible with Nav.
 
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