Minimum garrison required to stop a flip?

anarres · May 21, 2003

From the FAQ:

How many units do i need to suprpess a culture flip?

the full formula (this is from Sorenson, who is responsible for this programming):

P=[(F+T)*Cc*H*(Cte/Cty) - G]/D

where:
P = probability that it will flip this turn
F = # foreignors, with resistors counting double
T = # working tiles under foreign control (out of the max of 21, no matter what the cultural boundaries are atm)
Cc = 2 if foreign civ has more local culture than you, 1 otherwise
H = .5 for WLTKD, 2 for disorder, 1 otherwise
Cte = Total culture of the foreign civ
Cty = Total culture of your civ
G = # garrison units
D = factor based on relative distance to capitals

Now reorganizing this gives the required garrison as:
G = (F+T)*Cc*H*(Cte/Cty)

As you can see there is a nice set of extra factors there. Now when you take a city Cc is likely to be 2 for a long while. And then there is the culture ratio. And this is a true ratio so it could be 1.1:1, 2:1, 5:1 depending on how much culture each of you has.

In my Flip Calc thread someone has said they think the equation to calculate the minimum required garrison to suppress a flip is:

G = (F+T)*H*2

This is clearly different to the 'minimum garrison' in the Culture Flip formula:

G = (F+T)*Cc*H*(Cte/Cty)

Can anyone shed light on this? Has anyone else heard of this different way of working out the minimum required garrison to suppress flips?

carlosMM · May 21, 2003

???????

I experience so few flips (either way) since 1.14 PTW that i never really thought about this...

Deathwalker · May 21, 2003

It's like being back at Uni

sabo · May 21, 2003

I still see alot of flips, I decided to turn it off from now on. The cities that were flipping had wonders in it I just captured. I"m glad they now give us the option to turn those off.
THanks Zouave!!

Padma · May 21, 2003

Well, Cc = 2, in worst-case conditions.

But Cte/Cty could theoretically be any value greater than zero, although usually probably not larger than 2.

As a rule of thumb, I have usually used G = (F+T)*H*4 for a worst-case situation. That is, I mentally set Cc = 2, and (Cte/Cty) = 2, and 2 * 2 = 4.

For most situations, assuming Cc*(Cte/Cty)=2 is close enough.

For your calculator, I think you want to use the full equation though, and no "Rule of Thumb" shortcuts.

Student Driver · May 21, 2003

In all my games I have NEVER EVER EVER EVER EVER EVER EVER EVER EVER EVER had a city flip on me.

anarres · May 21, 2003

Padma,

On Deity I often have about 1/5 of the AI's culture in the ancient and medeival eras, so it's a huge difference to whether it is in the formula or not.

Padma · May 21, 2003

That's why I said the "short form" is only useful as a "rule of thumb" gauge. For a good calculator, you need to use the full equation.

Gen · May 22, 2003

I second anaress request. Help him make his flip utility (and don't forget to try it out :goodjob:

). Such external program is currently the only way to calculate probability of flip and more importantly, it can tell you how many units throw into conquered city without risking their loss.
Is the "2 per foreigner" rule a misconception or not? Your input will be appreciated!

vincenzo · May 22, 2003

How does the D factor, distance to capitals, come into play?
Is it just a ratio of the distances to the capitals? You would think that if one capital was on another continent it would make some extra effect.

Dr Alimentado · May 22, 2003

The D factor is used to calculate the probability of a flip. In the min garrison calculation you are working out the #units needed to make the probability = 0, regardless of D.

[Edit: cos the question was edited to make my answer n/a

]

AFAIK whether your capitol is on a seperate continent makes no difference to the chance of a flip, I conclude that from there being no factor in the calculation to account for it.

Padma · May 22, 2003

Originally posted by Gen
Is the "2 per foreigner" rule a misconception or not? Your input will be appreciated!

This comes from the G = (F+T)*H*2 shortcut. If the 2 civs are roughly equivalent in culture, then this is a useful rule of thumb. But remember, it's 2 per foreign citizen, with resisters counting double, and 2 for each tile of the 21-tile radius that is inside the foreign culture borders.

CellarDweller22 · May 22, 2003

If you are playing with culture flip turned OFF, you are not playing Civ III, imho. :rolleyes:

-- From The Cellar :cooool:

anarres · May 22, 2003

vincenzo, D = n*d, where n = 2000 and d is the ratio for distances to each capital (FP does not affect this).

mrtn · May 22, 2003

T = # working tiles under foreign control (out of the max of 21, no matter what the cultural boundaries are atm)

So, does this mean that once you have expanded a border (without any tiles belonging to another civ due to a nearby city) in a city with only your own citizens, then that city is immune against flipping? Regardless of if the town 3-4 tiles away has tons of culture and a cultural boundary that "should" cover your whole town?
This would be interesting. And it should mean that a real war monger could build temples in his cities, accumulate 11 culture points, and selling the temples. :crazyeye:

Gen · May 22, 2003

Originally posted by mrtn

So, does this mean that once you have expanded a border (without any tiles belonging to another civ due to a nearby city) in a city with only your own citizens, then that city is immune against flipping? Regardless of if the town 3-4 tiles away has tons of culture and a cultural boundary that "should" cover your whole town?
This would be interesting. And it should mean that a real war monger could build temples in his cities, accumulate 11 culture points, and selling the temples.

Basically, yes, such city will be immune to flip

Even real war monger should consider not selling temple because of increased happiness and overall culture though. 1 gold per turn for unkeep isn't too much I think...

Padma · May 22, 2003

Interesting thought, mrtn.

Reading the formula, I would say that if you own all 21 tiles, of the city and have no foreign nationals in the city, there is no chance for a flip. However, if you are warmongering, and capture a city, it will have foreign nationals, for quite some time. So there will still be some slight chance of flipping.

mrtn · May 22, 2003

Of course, but your cities on the peaceful side of the map would be safe.

anarres · May 22, 2003

yep, mrtn you are right.

One of my first priorities on a border land is to get the full 21 tiles. If I am going to attack soon this goes out the window, but for prolonged periods of peace I try for this.

When you starve a city to size 1 it often takes a few goes to get the last foreigner out, but you can get it in a few goes of growing to size 2 and producing a worker. After this it is 100% safe if you have the full 21 tiles.

Wolfhart · May 22, 2003

Hang on... getting your culture over 10 and thereby getting the full 21 tiles gives no immunity to culture flipping. It is about keeping control over the 21 tiles, isn't it? So don't go selling your temples! What I do against such an enemy border town with a culture>10 is to plant one of my own towns right next to his border, preferably the corner of his city radius where there's only one tile between our cities. The enemy town immediately loses the tiles closer to my town than to his, and then I rushbuild culture generators like Library and University (ok, I have lost one or two cities before my culture exceeded his, but usually the AI won't even try to match my culture racing...). As soon as my culture exceeds his he also loses all tiles that are equally close to us both. Now at this stage I've had quite a few enemy towns flipped, even though they once had control over all 21 tiles in their city radius. Have I misunderstood your statement about immunity to cult flip, or remembered wrong about my previous games, or does my Civ cheat on me?

Rgds,

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