Trades

Most of you have heard the news by now. We can make a Mega deal by selling Atomic Theory around.

Let me start my pleas not to do this yet by pasting parts of the turnchat.

End of turn 5.
[16:52] <RikMeleet> Aztecs: Steam <-> WM + 4gpt + 33 gold
[16:57] <RikMeleet> Germany: Atomic <-> Refining + WM + 848 gold + 216 gpt (optimized)
[16:58] <RikMeleet> Babs: ATom <-> Nationalism + WM + 66 (0gpt) editted Babs; chatlog said Persia; but this possible trade is with Babs
[16:59] <RikMeleet> Persia: Atom <-> Nationalism + WM + 63 gpt + 114 gold
[17:01] <RikMeleet> NO other trades possible.

This all seems fine, but there is more to know.

Germany offered this 1 turn earlier for Atomic Theory:
End of turn 4.
[16:18] <RikMeleet> Bismarck offers: WM + 167 gpt + 736 gold + Refining )optimized(


Germany has increased his deal "overnight" by 112 gold and + 49 gpt.

Germany researched Refining in 1565 AD.
Now, in 1575 AD, Germany still is the only civ with Refining. At the end of turn 5 (1575 AD) they have had max 2 turns researching. If they are researching Atomic Theory (and the trade increase indicates that they are not) they won't have it until a further 2 turns.

I think we should NOT trade Atomic yet. We can wait still 1 more turn, increasing the revenue and increasing the chance that some other civ has researched steel, giving greater benefit in the trades. It also increases our security for our main goal; the wonders US and HD.

If this plan fails; we an trade Electronics around for even more gold.

I say: put science to 0%. Wait 1 or even 2 turns (I am sure the Germans will not have Atomic Theory even by then) and then trade Atom around. Science to 0% gains us 635 gpt extra. And the trades will increase. Then science to full (80/90/100%) and race for the UN and the Spacerace parts. A little patience, undisturbed by too premature greed will gain us the most.

I also want to remind you of my continous pleas to the Science leader, the population of Fanatica and whoever wants to hear it to stop science for some time. I don't want to calculate how many gpt we've 'wasted' by researching techs we can now trade for easily, but I have to. 4 turns * 600 gpt = 2400 gold.
You haven't listened to me then, don't make the same mistake again and take my advice this time.

* Stop research.
* Trade Atomic around in 2 turns, Electronics 5 turns later (that is 3 turns after HD finishes, 4 turns from now).
* Cashrush as many cultural buildings and factories.
* Cash-upgrade the military.
* Build a national swimming pool in which everyone can swim in our gold.

I think we can get to 15000 gold by the time we reach Modern Times. Don't steal from yourselves by wasting gpt on science and trading too eagerly. Time is to our advantage in this. Do nothing, act on the correct time and the money and techs will run to us.

Rik Meleet.

Rik,

My only problem with this plan is I don't want to bring other civs back into the tech race by trading off our technological lead. We are the front-runners in the Space Race; we should not let up now.

I agree that a few more turns of 0% science would be wise right now, just to ensure that we wind up with both Wonders.

However, I really don't know how much more Germany's deal will increase. To me, it looks like they have just lowered the science rate to get these new numbers. If that is the case then there is no way they would discover Electronics in time.

So, as to whether we immediately trade AT or not, I guess I am undecided at this point. However, I am totally against trading Electronics around until it has significant value. We will be siphoning their coffers to give them AT, so there won't be much left to gain for Electronics. And I am not willing to blow our tech lead unless it is absolutely worth it, and the only trade I would support is one that includes another tech. That doesn't seem very likely.

DZ,

You raise a good point about Electronics. We can't bind our time too much though - the AI will desperately be trying to complete Electronics to build the Dam. If we go in reverse order of the major economies, we should get another nice return on our ToE investment. Hmm, that would be fun to track. Assuming 4 gold per shield, the ToE cost us 2400 gold, and gave us Atomic Theory and Electronics. What return will we get on our 2400 gold investment selling those two techs.

-- Ravensfire

DZ: Don't forget by getting a huge gpt from for instance Germany, they can't afford to spend on science much.

What would you do when you have 0 gold and 0 gpt? Focus all on science when you have no chance to sell science around when you have it, or slow down on science to get some gold ?

regardless I feel we need to go ahead with the Atomic trades next turn, wait till the AI's have been forced to switch from US before trading them Electronics (meaning Hoover will be done).

But I say go with these trades with Germany, Persia, and anyone else with a good deal.