In response to the discussion above/yesterday....
Examples of Defender prioritisation
The following examples were noted during GOTM23, and are based on notes taken during play. While not strictly tests in an academic sense they illustrate the decision-making process behind the choice of defender by the AI.
Case One: Ansar Warriors attacking a city (size 7-12) on grassland
Defenders:
2 regular muskets
1 veteran pikeman
1 veteran impi
First defender is regular musket.
chooses highest defence factor over higher hit points
Attacker dies, musket is at 1/3 at end of combat.
Second defender is (undamaged) regular musket.
again, chooses highest defence factor over higher hit points
Attacker dies, leaves defender as a (promoted) 2/4 musket.
Third defender is veteran pikeman.
chooses higher hit points (4) rather than higher defence factor
Attacker kills defender.
Fourth defender is veteran impi
chooses higher hit points (4) rather than higher defence factor
Attacker dies, leaves defender as 2/4 impi
Defender swaps back to 2/4 musket
1/3 musket and 2/4 impi are other defenders. Chooses highest defence and hit points
Attacker dies, leaves 1/4 musket
Defender is now 1/3 musket
chooses 1/3 in preference to 1/4 unit i.e. unit with fewest lost hitpoints
Attacker kills defender
Defender is now 1/4 musket
In preference to 2/4 impi
Attacker kills defender.
Last defender is 2/4 impi. Is killed by attacker.
Case Two: Ansar Warriors attacking a city (size 7-12) on grassland
Defenders:
1 regular musket
1 veteran pike
1 veteran impi
1 regular impi
First defender is veteran pikeman
Ai selects highest hit points over defence strength
Defende is eliminated
Next defender is regular musket
AI selects higher defence strength in preference to higher hit points
Defender is reduced to 1/3; attacker dies
Next defender is veteran impi
AI prefer hit points to strength
Defender is eliminated
Next defender is regular impi
AI prefer hit points to strength
Defender is eliminated
Final defender is 1/3 musket; defender is eliminated.
Conclusions
From the above, admittedly limited, data, it appears that there is no over-riding preference for either hit points or defence value as the selection criteria for a defender. Indeed in two cases - the initial attacks against the two cities - the AI selected opposite units.
In case one, the AI preferred a regular musket to a veteran pikeman; in case two the pikeman was preferred.
While it may be that the defensive terrain has an effect, IIRC there were no rivers, both cities were on grassland, both were of like size, and both were attacked by veteran Ansar Warriors.
One might therefore conclude that a random element also exists when selecting defenders from a stack.