German Barb Conversion?

[jlim201]

I destroyed 7 camps in a game as Germany, and none of them resulted in a new unit. Is there some weird reason for this or is it a bug? I used mainly Spearmen and Archers to get rid of most of them.

 

[otaman1]

There's only a 67% chance.

 

[jlim201]

yes, but 0 out of 7 is not 67%. I would expect at least one.

 

[householder]

yes, but 0 out of 7 is not 67%. I would expect at least one.

Very true, but there is still a 6.01% chance of getting the result you got. You may have just had very bad luck.

I played as Germany a week ago, using BNW and the latest patch, and I was getting barbarian conversions on a reasonable basis.

 

[Sonereal]

yes, but 0 out of 7 is not 67%. I would expect at least one.

That's not how probability works. It is entirely possible you bust 100 camps and never get anything. The RNG doesn't take into account previous success or failures.

I'm sure CivIV veterans remember the 99.99% chance of success battles.

 

[redwings1340]

Very true, but there is still a 6.01% chance of getting the result you got. You may have just had very bad luck.

Hmm? .33^7 is a 0.04% chance to get that result. I'd say this means either bug or doing something wrong.

 

[Sonereal]

Hmm? .33^7 is a 0.04% chance to get that result. I'd say this means either bug or doing something wrong.

Or neither. Like I said, rolls don't take into account previous rolls. Just because there is a 1 in 10 chance of something happening doesn't mean after nine failures, the game owes you a success.

 

[Civilmyzation]

yeah not how it works. this is a bit like the RNG in WoW and Diablo type games, where some are just "lucky" and seem to always get what they want with very very very little effort, while others even with decent odds, can sit there for days and fail time and time again.

 

[redwings1340]

Or neither. Like I said, rolls don't take into account previous rolls. Just because there is a 1 in 10 chance of something happening doesn't mean after nine failures, the game owes you a success.

The odds aren't 1 in 10 though, they are 1 in 2500 with a 67% conversion rate. It's still possible, but it's unlikely. Still, keep trying though just to test whether you did get unlucky.

 

[AW Arcaeca]

That's not how probability works. It is entirely possible you bust 100 camps and never get anything. The RNG doesn't take into account previous success or failures.

I'm sure CivIV veterans remember the 99.99% chance of success battles.

Yeah... "Screwed over by the RNG" we call it. (Or maybe that's just me...)

Source from a long time ago, in the civ4 forums:

95% combat odds actually means 33.333% combat odds

And that's how I learned to never trust the combat odds the game supplies. 97% really means 12%, 32% really means 69%. That's the kind of luck I usually get.

 

[Sonereal]

That magical moment when you're down to one unit, and the enemy has only one longbow defender left, and you win a <10% battle. Glorious.

 

[VicRatlhead5199]

I don't know about the RNG explanation. The odds of 0/7 are really small. Since the Fall Patch I usually get more units than I know what to do with and am forced to gift them to CSs to avoid production penalties. I'd say that sounds buggy. Try a new game and see if it happens again.

 

[Sonereal]

Just because odds are small does not mean they're impossible.

 

[Magma_Dragoon]

If anyone is interested in how to probability:
Probability of something happening is (1 - chance of it not happening^tries) or 1-x^n
1/3 probability not to get a unit, over 7 iterations is 1 - (1/3)^7

Hence about 99.957% probability to get at least one unit after 7 tries. Very slim, but possible. So, congratulations?

Also, I can confirm you don't actually have to kill anything in the camp to get the unit, just walking in to an empty camp works too. You get the unit the camp spawned with, not the unit that is there now.

 

[Gagilence]

Gambler's fallacy - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy

 

[BrotherInJah]

Hmm? .33^7 is a 0.04% chance to get that result. I'd say this means either bug or doing something wrong.

If anyone is interested in how to probability:
Probability of something happening is (1 - chance of it not happening^tries) or 1-x^n
1/3 probability not to get a unit, over 7 iterations is 1 - (1/3)^7

Hence about 99.957% probability to get at least one unit after 7 tries. Very slim, but possible. So, congratulations?

Also, I can confirm you don't actually have to kill anything in the camp to get the unit, just walking in to an empty camp works too. You get the unit the camp spawned with, not the unit that is there now.

Thanks magma, but u skipped some posts..

 

[Santa Maria]

I hate the 67% chance. I just cant build a strategy with it, cause I never know if I am going to get something. I think they should have made it a 100% chance. Or some algorithm: you convert the 1st, 3rd, 4th, 6th, 7th, 9th, ... and so on. That way you would know if you will convert or not. You than could take some strategic decisions around it. As it is I hate it and think it's bad for the gameplay. Bad for the strategy.

But maybe I am just unable to do a good strategy with the 67% chance, and you still can manage even with the probabilities, but I dont know how.

So yeah, I think it should be changed.

 

[leadtothehead]

I think its a fun mechanic (still think it should belong to the Huns ), I have had times where I missed on 3 straight and other times I have hit on 5 in a row, it will even out eventually that game the Civ gods just had it out for you...