How to keep the peace?

I'm afraid you're going to have to produce some source code before your hypothesis is going to be accepted. Too many of us have contrary (but equally anecdotal) experience.
 
Why are your units standing still? Go out and explore the map. Find ruins early in the game. Block off bottle necks from AI opponents (settlers cannot go through your units). Use your military might to extort tribute from CS who you do not have good quests for. Use your units to take out barbarian camps.

Play a peaceful game by walking softly and carrying a big stick.
 
In my oppinion, the main issue are ideologies. I can do fine in a peaceful game, but as soon as your neighbours choose other ideologies than you did - better get your army ready.
 
Either that or make that revolution to the ideology that everyone will accept. It might cost a turn or two and an ideology or two but may be necessary to survive.
 
I have a working (but unsubstantiated) hypothesis that the game is programmed with a strong bias to involve the player in at least one mid to late game war.

There is no single piece of code, from what I have seen in the dll, that supports your hypothesis. Now, the indirect effects of the intricate diplo relations that build up from one game to the other very differently, can lead to the result you point out, but you as a player still have the control over the diplo interactions, and can manage to avoid all possible wars (and win? well, that's another story, but that is also possible as shown by many LP utubers...).

In the end, it's just one more case of:

"Speak softly, and carry a big gun." :D
 
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