[RD] USA Election 2016 Predictions

[onejayhawk]

It is exactly 365 days to the next Presidential election.

Hillary Clinton is the presumptive Democratic nominee.

The Republican field has narrowed to six arguable contenders. The most obvious, Jeb Bush, may be last of the six, in spite of having the most money.

I am not prepared, at this time, to pick a Republican. I would lean to Rubio, but Ted Cruz has made a recent push while Ben Carson and Donald Trump refuse to leave.

The Democratic nominee will be Hillary Clinton.

The next President will be the Republican. Book it now.

J

 

[warpus]

Whaaa your election is a year away? Why the hell did the hoopla start like 2 years before the fact? What the hell..

 

[useless]

I'm hoping Hilary will win, either that or Sanders (Hilary will be more likely)

 

[Antilogic]

Doesn't it kind of defeat the purpose of your thread, J, if you won't make a prediction in your own OP about the identity of this new GOP president?

 

[Hygro]

I totally predict that there will be a president in 2016

 

[Lohrenswald]

If Obama became elected president in 2016 he would be the second greatest president in USA's history only behind Franklin Roosevelt

 

[illram]

Clinton v. Bush.

I really don't know who wins that. I think Bush has a chance at beating her in the election. But, the Republicans basically have to win Florida the way I see it, if you think PA and WI and NH will go democrat this year. (I do.) If they don't win Florida I think they are toast, but Clinton does not "have to" win Florida (even though she obviously wants to very badly). I see more avenues to a Clinton win than a GOP one going by electoral votes. And that's what counts kids.

Anyone else on the GOP ticket besides Bush and the GOP loses. That's the one thing I am confident on.

Fun way to play around with the predictions, here's one where Clinton still wins even if Bush/whoever picks up Florida, VA, CO, and Iowa:

I'll be doing election monitoring in Las Vegas again this election so I will make sure all those Clinton votes don't get lost on the Diebold machines. Also, who wants to predict a 269/269 tie? It's possible!

If that happens the House votes with each state's delegation getting to vote depending on who holds each state, in which case we have a GOP president.

Here is why the GOP has to win Florida. If they don't, basically every battleground state needs to go their way:

They need to pick up NH or PA. I don't think either of those happen.

http://www.270towin.com/

 

[danjuno]

You're underestimating the ability of the Republicans to knock each other to pieces.

Clinton will win by around the same margin as BHO did in 2012.

 

[downtown]

I'd guess it's Clinton vs Rubio, and Clinton wins a relatively close election. Even with Clinton's unpopularity among men and reporter types, I think it'd be very difficult for Republicans to overcome their demographic challenges for this cycle. It's possible, since Clinton isn't a very good campaigner, but it would be very hard.

Kinda think whoever wins this GOP primary is going to come out pretty dang bloody.

 

[dutchfire]

Clinton wins the Democratic nomination
For the Republicans, I'd give Rubio the best odds at the moment, with Kasich and Trump (!?!) following him.
The general is too early to tell, IMO, until we have an idea about the candidates. With the current (lack of) information, I would put it at 50-50.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

There is no candidate on the Republican side that can carry the albatross of the Republican party. Clinton wins in a final result barely distinguishable from 2012 margins.

 

[jackelgull]

I still think Clinton will win, but not to the same margins as 2012. Obama is more charismatic than Clinton is, and while the GOP candidate pool this year might be more unpalatable than Romney, they'll still get the GOP base out and about. And unless the Republicans put a Florida homeboy for presidential candidate, I'm not sure they can reliably shore up Florida.

 

[illram]

One thing is for sure, no way they win Florida with Trump on the ticket.

 

[jackelgull]

Trump is like swallowing poison to the Southern Republicans. Some might see the writing on the wall and decide that some bitter medicine is in order, others might decide to go down with their flags nailed to the mast. Which would be bad for the Republican party as a whole.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

I'd guess it's Clinton vs Rubio, and Clinton wins a relatively close election. Even with Clinton's unpopularity among men and reporter types, I think it'd be very difficult for Republicans to overcome their demographic challenges for this cycle. It's possible, since Clinton isn't a very good campaigner, but it would be very hard.

Kinda think whoever wins this GOP primary is going to come out pretty dang bloody.

I agree with this though I think Rubio is capable of not making the kind of gaffes that killed Romney's campaign and that will make it tougher for Clinton to win. I think it will be much closer than 2012.

 

[illram]

Trump is like swallowing poison to the Southern Republicans. Some might see the writing on the wall and decide that some bitter medicine is in order, others might decide to go down with their flags nailed to the mast. Which would be bad for the Republican party as a whole.

My main reasoning that Trump will never win Florida, other than him being an ego maniacal douche, is that he is an ego maniacal racist douche. (Or at least, that's his platform.)

The hispanic vote in Florida is becoming more and more important every cycle.

Rubio has the weird problem that his GOP bonafides with the uber right wing are under attack by people like Trump, who want the crazy pants vote, but at the same time someone like Rubio is who the GOP needs if they want any hope of winning the not crazy vote in places like Florida. Which is sort of symptomatic of the GOP's larger "crazy primary/not crazy general" identity problem for a few election cycles in recent memory.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

I wonder how much Rubio's actual track record on immigration issues will actually help him with hispanic voters.

 

[jackelgull]

My main reasoning that Trump will never win Florida, other than him being an ego maniacal douche, is that he is an ego maniacal racist douche. (Or at least, that's his platform.)

The hispanic vote in Florida is becoming more and more important every cycle.

Rubio has the weird problem that his GOP bonafides with the uber right wing are under attack by people like Trump, who want the crazy pants vote, but at the same time someone like Rubio is who the GOP needs if they want any hope of winning the not crazy vote in places like Florida.

Wow, I realized hispanics played a large role in Florida, but I never realized they had so much influence. Yeah, Trump isn't going to appeal to those people.

 

[JollyRoger]

Clinton v. Bush in the general. Whoever the GOP nominee is, Hillary will pants him and take his lunch money.

Democrats pick up seats in the Senate and the House, but the GOP maintains majorities.

 

[Kennigit]

I think clinton wins it easily. Might be close in electoral votes but I see no possible way for the republicans to actually swing enough over.

Rubio/Kasich ticket might make Ohio interesting or the election interesting.

Every other republican ticket loses very badly. The republicans cannot double down on crazies

Hillary wants an energetic running mate. Who it is, I don't know.

I dont think there is any third party candidate that can come in and take the young people of ohio/pennsylvania away from clinton. Young people will be deathly afraid of republican crazies. The republicans need this election to be a matter of questioning a clinton dynasty, not some "lets go repeal obamacare day 1 and make a defense of marriage act" or something