• In anticipation of the possible announcement of Civilization 7, we have decided to already create the Civ7 forum. For more info please check the forum here .

Brave New World's 9 new Civs

Status
Not open for further replies.
To Menzies (can't be bothered to quote):

I still don't believe that precedent can be used as definitive evidence. It's a very good basis for some pretty solid speculation, but precedents can be broken. I am not saying that they will be, but it is a possibility which cannot as yet be definitively ruled out.

I say again - I think you are right about Venice. But frankly I think it's unnecessary to respond to anyone postulating that Venice and/or Italy may not be in and repeat yourself on the colour-replacement theory again, when most of us have read it and there are now multiple threads in which it is discussed, and there is still nothing to explicitly, undeniably, 100% prove that this rule cannot be broken in BNW, regardless of whether or not there is any good reason to doubt it. Maybe there isn't, but I still don't regard it as definitive proof.

I have maybe 10-15% of doubt in my mind about Italy or Venice making it in. Call me cautious - after all, I didn't believe the expansion was even coming until it was announced - but I will wait for actual confirmation.
 
6:Morocco
7;Indonesia or Vietnam (Indonesia please)
8.Native American (Sioux,Cherokee or Mississipians)
9.Italy or Ashanti or another african,I would like Phoenicia but i don't think so...
 
Menzies said:
May I repeat this:

In all cases where a city state has taken a known colour-type combination, it has been a replacement.
Click to expand...

There once was a pig who grew up on a farm. Every day, the farmer would call to him and he would walk over and get fed. In his world, the farmer was the man who fed him. If the farmer called him, that precedent meant he would get food. One day the farmer called to him. He walked over. The farmer then slaughtered him to feed his family. It was a Black Swan Event - an outlier completely removed from past precedent. The Pig was never able to predict it because all his experience suggested otherwise. In spite of this, it still happened.

We all agree with you that past experience says that Venice has been replaced and there is no precedent saying it hasn't. We've read your posts 50 times by now. However, every time someone suggests that this could be a break from precedent, you repeat your precedent. We agree with the precedent and understand it. We just want to point out that we can't be certain because they can always break from precedent. So, please, understand what we're trying to say here.

And for the love of God, don't respond with "May I repeat this" and point out your precedent again.
 
We seem to be going round in circles at this point - until we get some new information we can't really narrow down the list of likely candidates any more. I was kind of hoping 2k might do another civ reveal today (they seem to like doing that on Fridays), but I'm not sure we'll see anything new until next week now.

That said, I think that the remaining civs are going to be:
6. Morocco (Seems almost certain now due to the Beefjack 'leak' and possible Kasbah improvement. The Moors are also a civ that have been requested regularly for quite a long time now)
7. Vietnam (Possible evidence from City State alterations, could have an Ideology focused UA, and has also been another oft-requested civ - perhaps more so than Indonesia/Majapahit)
8. Belgium (Possibly linked to a new luxury resource (Chocolates), would fit in the Scramble for Africa scenario, possible World Congress/Diplomacy related UA and could be covered by the City State changes)
9. Either: Italy (Assuming the City State alteration theories are correct, could have a UA linked to Great Works) or the Inuit (from the 'pro' civ comment - starting in the polar regions may require some skill. They were also a popular fan request, like Polynesia, and would give more civ coverage to North America)

Note that these aren't the civs I'd most like to see included (I'd rather see the Khmer and Sioux than Belgium and Italy for example) - but they are the ones I think Firaxis will have gone for.
 
Louis XXIV said:
There once was a pig who grew up on a farm. Every day, the farmer would call to him and he would walk over and get fed. In his world, the farmer was the man who fed him. If the farmer called him, that precedent meant he would get food. One day the farmer called to him. He walked over. The farmer then slaughtered him to feed his family. It was a Black Swan Event - an outlier completely removed from past precedent. The Pig was never able to predict it because all his experience suggested otherwise. In spite of this, it still happened.

We all agree with you that past experience says that Venice has been replaced and there is no precedent saying it hasn't. We've read your posts 50 times by now. However, every time someone suggests that this could be a break from precedent, you repeat your precedent. We agree with the precedent and understand it. We just want to point out that we can't be certain because they can always break from precedent. So, please, understand what we're trying to say here.

And for the love of God, don't respond with "May I repeat this" and point out your precedent again.
Click to expand...

blackcatatonic said:
To Menzies (can't be bothered to quote):

I still don't believe that precedent can be used as definitive evidence. It's a very good basis for some pretty solid speculation, but precedents can be broken. I am not saying that they will be, but it is a possibility which cannot as yet be definitively ruled out.

I say again - I think you are right about Venice. But frankly I think it's unnecessary to respond to anyone postulating that Venice and/or Italy may not be in and repeat yourself on the colour-replacement theory again, when most of us have read it and there are now multiple threads in which it is discussed, and there is still nothing to explicitly, undeniably, 100% prove that this rule cannot be broken in BNW, regardless of whether or not there is any good reason to doubt it. Maybe there isn't, but I still don't regard it as definitive proof.

I have maybe 10-15% of doubt in my mind about Italy or Venice making it in. Call me cautious - after all, I didn't believe the expansion was even coming until it was announced - but I will wait for actual confirmation.
Click to expand...

It's not definite evidence, and it should never be used as definite evidence. The point is, as far as evidence goes, it's as strong as we've got. If we're going to start getting into "what if they do something completely different", well, then they do something completely different. What if they had Mbanza-Kongo in from early testing when Pueblo was meant to be in, and have since decided to replace Pueblo with say... Kongo. Could happen, there's nothing to say that it is, but at the same time, it could happen.

The point, and the reason I've repeated it so many times is that there have been a lot of replies which seem to suggest that the evidence isn't solid in that there are things going against it (like the suggestions that civs have shifted colours, then had their old ones replaced or Gugus various claims). Not only have we seen that when a city state gets a used colour-type combination, it has been a replacement, but there is no reason for them to give a used colour-type combination away anyhow, since there are still a considerable number of choices. Even if they did use the mechanism that someone offered, Venice shifted to be cyan and mercantile, new civ brought into be maritime, they'd still have 6 other colour-choices to choose from, and in all previous cases that they've done something like this they've ended up with a new colour-type combination. From a statistical point of view, the odds are about 1 in 7 that it would end up like that if that mechanism involved equal probability across all open choices. Of course, all the shifts were made as they were adding in new types, and in this version there won't be any new types, hence no reason that we know yet that they would shift city states sideways.

The point isn't that Venice is confirmed to be out, but that all available evidence suggests that it is. To speculate based on the very small chance that it isn't is kind of silly and more setting one up for a disappointment when it turns out that, in fact, the very small probability event was in fact, very unlikely and didn't happen. Yes, there is a small chance that they'll do something completely out of the ordinary and unpredictable, but that goes for a number of things, including what city states we've already seen, as they are something that could still be changed, although there is again, absolutely no reason to think that they would be.

I guess a better way of saying the above is that as far as speculation goes, it doesn't get much stronger than that unless someone actually already knows the answer. Yes, there is still a small chance of it being wrong, but at the same time, there's a small chance of a lot of things people are taking for granted a wrong.
 
Menzies said:
May I repeat this:

In all cases where a city state has taken a known colour-type combination, it has been a replacement.

Even if Venice had been changed from maritime to mercantile, that says nothing about why Riga has it's Gods & Kings colour-type combination. We have seen city states have their colour-type combination changed before, but their colour-type combination was not given to another city state and the only cases where this was done was to add numbers to the two new types of city states (or to replace removed city states, ie Lhasa and Budapest replacing Vienna and Edinburgh).

As things stand, in all cases having a city state show up with a used colour-type combination has meant a replacement. Who knows, maybe they've just done something completely bizarre. There is absolutely no reason to speculate on this basis though, and basing what we know on their previous confirmable behaviour is far more solid than any other type of speculation. Considering that Venice not being replaced with be something entirely new and unprecedented (and statistically would be bizarre), at this point point it is important to remember what we know in this case, as the chances of Venice not being removed should be seen as very slim.

At the end of the day though, it is something that we have observed without exception, and as you correction reference, if there were to be a hierarchy of sources for what is in and out it should be ordered something like:

1. Announced information
2. City States with names ruling out civs
3. City State colour-type observations
4. Off hand comments by the developers
5. Everything else
Click to expand...

I don't disagree with your theory per-se but I will point out that the sample is extremely small and that you cannot be certain that Venice has in fact been removed. As you well know such a small sample can lead to a false positive in any scientific test. If there had been more cases where CS's were replaced in that method we could state it was a rule but at this point all we can really say is that it APPEARS highly likely that Venice has been removed based on previous examples. I really dont think you can argue that it's a certainty.

I personally would prefer something else other than Italy but I look at the expansion and how it's set up does lean towards Italy being the 9th choice.
 
alpha2117 said:
I don't disagree with your theory per-se but I will point out that the sample is extremely small and that you cannot be certain that Venice has in fact been removed. As you well know such a small sample can lead to a false positive in any scientific test. If there had been more cases where CS's were replaced in that method we could state it was a rule but at this point all we can really say is that it APPEARS highly likely that Venice has been removed based on previous examples. I really dont think you can argue that it's a certainty.

I personally would prefer something else other than Italy but I look at the expansion and how it's set up does lean towards Italy being the 9th choice.
Click to expand...

It's a good point about the sample size. Here are the direct examples:

Sydney - Copenhagen
Quebec City - Oslo
Kathmandu - Seoul
Budapest - Edinburgh
Lhasa - Vienna
Mombasa - Helsinki

As well as for Brave New World:

Bratislava - Warsaw
Panama City - Rio de Janeiro

The point worth making though is that whilst that's only 6-8 examples to work off, there are no examples of a city state taking a known colour-type combination without it being a replacement, and that the above is very unlikely unless it was something that was specifically decided upon. As mentioned before, there are 16 colours, so if someone's suggestion of them removing the city state, then bringing in a new one, and giving it a colour at random from an available pool (including the now vacant colour) was right, then the above would be extortionately unlikely. Let's just work with the 6 up to Gods & Kings (so we'll leave out Rio and Warsaw for this) and taking it such that there are 7 colour choices (6 free + the removed city state's colour) for the cultural and maritime city states, and 9 for Budapest (as there were only 8 militaristic city states in Vanilla), giving us around a 1 in 151,263, or roughly as likely as getting the same result on a coin 17 times in a row, and that's not taking into account our two new replacements.

So basically, it's not something that we'd see by luck, it is something they do, and are doing in Brave New World as well. They could have done something completely out of the blue, who knows, but there is at this time no reason to think about that. No, there is no absolute confirmation that Venice has been replaced, but the odds that it hasn't been are, based on what we've seen, very small and would be quite an exception at this point.
 
Tsuchinoko said:
We seem to be going round in circles at this point - until we get some new information we can't really narrow down the list of likely candidates any more. I was kind of hoping 2k might do another civ reveal today (they seem to like doing that on Fridays), but I'm not sure we'll see anything new until next week now.

That said, I think that the remaining civs are going to be:
6. Morocco (Seems almost certain now due to the Beefjack 'leak' and possible Kasbah improvement. The Moors are also a civ that have been requested regularly for quite a long time now)
7. Vietnam (Possible evidence from City State alterations, could have an Ideology focused UA, and has also been another oft-requested civ - perhaps more so than Indonesia/Majapahit)
8. Belgium (Possibly linked to a new luxury resource (Chocolates), would fit in the Scramble for Africa scenario, possible World Congress/Diplomacy related UA and could be covered by the City State changes)
9. Either: Italy (Assuming the City State alteration theories are correct, could have a UA linked to Great Works) or the Inuit (from the 'pro' civ comment - starting in the polar regions may require some skill. They were also a popular fan request, like Polynesia, and would give more civ coverage to North America)

Note that these aren't the civs I'd most like to see included (I'd rather see the Khmer and Sioux than Belgium and Italy for example) - but they are the ones I think Firaxis will have gone for.
Click to expand...

I would keep in mind the fact that the Pueblo Civ was to be added, and I doubt they'd have not gone for another Native American civ.

Also, Vietnam is no longer supported by any city state alteration ideas. It was based on Sofia being a militaristic city state, but it seems that Sofia has a completely new colour-type combination, and is most likely a new addition rather than a replacement. We're not sure why as of yet, but that's what it seems like. In any case, there's nothing left supporting Hanoi being replaced, so Vietnam is only as likely as anyone else there.

Indonesia also poll considerably better than Vietnam.
 
Poll results, Indonesia v Vietnam:

Brave New World's New Civilizations:
Indonesia: 53.82%
Other: 26.34% (Vietnam not specified)

What will be the remaining civs in Brave New World?:
Indonesia: 51.14%
Vietnam: 18.57%

Brave New World's New Civilizations - REVISED!:
Indonesia: 49.35%
Vietnam: 22.45%

Brave new World's New Civilizations - REVISED AGAIN!:
Indonesia: 50.62%
Vietnam: 33.64%

Overall, it's clear that whilst Vietnam has risen in popularity seemingly over the time since the game was announced, Indonesia has been clearly more popular through this time. It's also important to note that Indonesia has been popular since well before the announcement as well.
 
^ I remember Indonesia being frequently requested as a possible religion tie-in Civ when G&K was announced. This is what makes me favour them as a 'fan favourite'.
 
Menzies said:
It's a good point about the sample size. Here are the direct examples:

Sydney - Copenhagen
Quebec City - Oslo
Kathmandu - Seoul
Budapest - Edinburgh
Lhasa - Vienna
Mombasa - Helsinki

As well as for Brave New World:

Bratislava - Warsaw
Panama City - Rio de Janeiro

The point worth making though is that whilst that's only 6-8 examples to work off, there are no examples of a city state taking a known colour-type combination without it being a replacement, and that the above is very unlikely unless it was something that was specifically decided upon. As mentioned before, there are 16 colours, so if someone's suggestion of them removing the city state, then bringing in a new one, and giving it a colour at random from an available pool (including the now vacant colour) was right, then the above would be extortionately unlikely. Let's just work with the 6 up to Gods & Kings (so we'll leave out Rio and Warsaw for this) and taking it such that there are 7 colour choices (6 free + the removed city state's colour) for the cultural and maritime city states, and 9 for Budapest (as there were only 8 militaristic city states in Vanilla), giving us around a 1 in 151,263, or roughly as likely as getting the same result on a coin 17 times in a row, and that's not taking into account our two new replacements.

So basically, it's not something that we'd see by luck, it is something they do, and are doing in Brave New World as well. They could have done something completely out of the blue, who knows, but there is at this time no reason to think about that. No, there is no absolute confirmation that Venice has been replaced, but the odds that it hasn't been are, based on what we've seen, very small and would be quite an exception at this point.
Click to expand...

There are some assumptions there that I dont necessarily agree with (although I actually think you are probably right). To me the color choices have always seemed fairly random and we also cannot be certain that additional CS's have not been added rather than existing CS's being replaced. We cannot be certain that they have not reworked the ratios for the types of cities. Therefore a color scheme used for a Culture CS now could be being used for a Maratime CS etc etc. From previous observation it appears likely that Venice has been replaced but given that we are dealing with people making development decisions rather than the laws of physics we cannot be certain that if there was a rule in the past it is being followed now. Also I wouldn't put it past them to deliberately change the pattern to try to obscure their choices. I think most evidence points towards Venice being replaced but I think there are too many variables for the level of certainty you display about the situation.
 
Menzies said:
Poll results, Indonesia v Vietnam:

Brave New World's New Civilizations:
Indonesia: 53.82%
Other: 26.34% (Vietnam not specified)

What will be the remaining civs in Brave New World?:
Indonesia: 51.14%
Vietnam: 18.57%

Brave New World's New Civilizations - REVISED!:
Indonesia: 49.35%
Vietnam: 22.45%

Brave new World's New Civilizations - REVISED AGAIN!:
Indonesia: 50.62%
Vietnam: 33.64%

Overall, it's clear that whilst Vietnam has risen in popularity seemingly over the time since the game was announced, Indonesia has been clearly more popular through this time. It's also important to note that Indonesia has been popular since well before the announcement as well.
Click to expand...

Indonesia was also first for quite some time by ALL civs over at Ideas & Suggestions until they were taken over by Zulu and Portugal.

Unfortunately for people like me who want them in the game real badly, that's not enough evidence to warrant inclusion
 
alpha2117 said:
There are some assumptions there that I dont necessarily agree with (although I actually think you are probably right). To me the color choices have always seemed fairly random and we also cannot be certain that additional CS's have not been added rather than existing CS's being replaced. We cannot be certain that they have not reworked the ratios for the types of cities. Therefore a color scheme used for a Culture CS now could be being used for a Maratime CS etc etc. From previous observation it appears likely that Venice has been replaced but given that we are dealing with people making development decisions rather than the laws of physics we cannot be certain that if there was a rule in the past it is being followed now. Also I wouldn't put it past them to deliberately change the pattern to try to obscure their choices. I think most evidence points towards Venice being replaced but I think there are too many variables for the level of certainty you display about the situation.
Click to expand...

A couple of points:

  • What assumptions?
  • How have the colour choices seemed random when even the simplistic overview of my previous post shows that they are anything but in the case of replacements?
  • As has been previous said, reworking the ratios of city state types doesn't affect the replacements idea whatsoever

As a slightly more detailed point; there are no colour schemes, there are just colours, 16 of them in fact, and they all have at least two city states having them, the key point is the colour-type combinations, which weren't even unique for vanilla (although they are now). The key point to this is that when a city state appears with a known colour-type combination, it has always been a replacement, and at this time, no mechanism can explain how this could be a coincidence.
 
dagriggstar said:
Anyone else think we might get Red Cloud instead of Sitting Bull should the Sioux/Lakota be included ? Would continue the trend where they seem to be picking different leaders for familiar civs
Click to expand...

 
Perhaps I should re-phrase - with the exception of the ultra-popular leaders (Shaka, lets face it without him do the Zulu really get in ?)

I mean
Tokugawa -> Oda
Saladin -> Harun
Hannibal -> Dido
Justinian -> Theodora
Mao/Qin -> Wu
Joao -> Maria
Julius -> Augustus

You can't deny they've taken some slightly different options with some of the other leader choices.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Similar threads

Legen
  • Locked
[Complex] (7-NS) Alternative Carthage adjustments
2
Replies
39
Views
2K
Legen
Legen
Rekk
  • Locked
(7-25a) Carthage Gets More Trade Routes
2 3
Replies
58
Views
2K
Recursive
Recursive
usadefcon1
  • Locked
[Complex] (7-NS) Carthage Gets Plunder Resistant Cargo Ships
Replies
3
Views
270
Rekk
Rekk
pineappledan
  • Locked
(7-48a) Songhai UA Change
Replies
3
Views
501
Tekamthi
Tekamthi
Y
  • Locked
[Complex] (7-NS) Spain UA + UU rework
Replies
6
Views
452
pineappledan
pineappledan
Top Bottom