Who Are You Picking to Win the Superbowl?

[Sommerswerd]

You only get to pick ONE (1) Team!

No saying lame things to try and pick both teams so you can claim "See I was right!" or "We won!" or "I'm happy with the result" regardless of who wins... that's lame ... By all means explain/defend your pick but don't hedge, because that's lame

Lame things people say for the Super Bowl (to try to justify picking both teams):

1. I WANT Team X to win but I THINK Team Y will win = Lame

2. I HAVE TO cheer for Team X (because my cousin, best friend etc is affiliated, or I have some other "connection" to the team) but I also WANT TO see Team Y win because (I'm from the town, or near it or have some other "connection" to the team) = Lame

3. I THINK Team X is the better team and SHOULD win but I'm PULLING FOR Team Y (because "I think XYZ player is a really good person" or "I hate so and so" or "Player XYZ is my favourite at so-and-so position" or some other reason/connection (see #1 and #2) = Lame

4. I'm not a fan of either team so I don't care who wins... but if I have to pick I'd say (see #1,2 or 3) = Lame

Just pick ONE team

 

[caketastydelish]

I am taking the Rams. (this is coming from a Seahawks fan)

I will add that no matter who wins this could be ironic simply because there is a strong possibility this will be the last Super Bowl Tom Brady gets to play in.

Or more specifically, how Tom Brady's first Super Bowl was against the Rams. Two completely different teams outside of Brady himself.

The Rams are equipped to stop the Pats strong run game because of their defensive line, and cornerbacks to limit their passing game.

On the other side of the ball, the Rams are just ridiculous and their special teams is pretty good too.

Bill Belichick likes to take away your best weapon, but that's really hard to do with a team that spreads the ball around so well.

The only thing that worries me is if this stage is too big for Jared Goff. His performance has already dipped in the playoffs, so that is a legitimate concern.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

1. I WANT Team X to win but I THINK Team Y will win = Lame I think the team that I want to win, will in fact be the team that wins. Not lame.

2. I HAVE TO cheer for Team X (because my cousin, best friend etc is affiliated, or I have some other "connection" to the team) but I also WANT TO see Team Y win because (I'm from the town, or near it or have some other "connection" to the team) = Lame I have to cheer for one team because they are sort of my home town team, and nothing on this earth would in any way connect me to the opposing team. If it did I would cut it off. Not lame.

3. I THINK Team X is the better team and SHOULD win but I'm PULLING FOR Team Y (because "I think XYZ player is a really good person" or "I hate so and so" or "Player XYZ is my favourite at so-and-so position" or some other reason/connection (see #1 and #2) = Lame I think there is a better team, but I would still be against the other team if they were better. I would still be against them if they were unopposed. Not lame.

4. I'm not a fan of either team so I don't care who wins... but if I have to pick I'd say (see #1,2 or 3) = Lame I'm not particularly a fan of either team, but I absolutely despise one of them so I'm for the RAMS all the way baby! Not lame.

My preference would be to see the Rams just ANNIHILATE them. Like the offense drops one of their fifty burgers on Bellyache while Talib is Brady's number one receiver on the day type annihilation. Brady leaving the field in tears as people chant "go home old man" at him type annihilation. Kraft leaves at halftime to beat the traffic type annihilation. Rams up thirty at the half, come out of the locker room chanting "remember the Falcons" and win by fifty type annihilation.

BTW...someone voted and didn't claim their vote. That's lame.

 

[caketastydelish]

The Rams are better but not by that margin.

edit: Honestly, I don't think this Rams team is quite as good as what the Eagles had last year. I'm banking on that not being a requirement for the Rams to win. I anticipate a close game that the Rams squeak by. Obviously, I would prefer a blowout more. But I can't realistically predict it.

edit 2: part of it is that this Patriots isn't quite as good as last year either. Brady's numbers have been on the decline, and probably because Gronk has stepped down from how he used to be.

edit 3: (lol) the Rams in the greatest show on turf era simply underestimated the Patriots as they came out of nowhere. Not going to happen this time.

 

[Sommerswerd]

I picked the Pats as always. The only team I homer for more than the Pats is my actual team, the 49ers.

I want to say it was tempting to go with the Eagles last year, having lived in Philly for many years and gone to more Eagles games than any other team in my life... but really there was no temptation. I was Pats all the way. The joke was on me .

The Pats are going to win because Brady is better than Goff, and the Pats are going to go max-protection to deal with the pass rush. I'd expect to see some plays where they only send out 2 receivers, maybe even 1 receiver and keep everyone else in to protect Brady, with a late TE or RB release for a checkdown once the blitz is squashed. Donaldson is good but he's going to struggle getting triple teamed all night.

Plus I don't think the Pats are going to lose two Super Bowls in a row. I do suspect that Brady will retire after this one though, because this will be the one that overtakes the Steelers for most ever. Then Brady will retire and run for Governor of Massachusetts, win, serve 2 terms then run for POTUS.

 

[onejayhawk]

The Rams may have the better team, but I'll take the Patriots. I think this will be the last game for Gronk and possibly Brady and/or Belichick. That gives them one more edge, as if they needed one.

J

 

[Timsup2nothin]

There's a winning strategy against the Patriots, and the Rams might be the team to use it. First drive, even if you have to give up the fifteen yards because you are late, lay a massive blast into Brady. He only takes one hit a game, and if you land it on the first drive he'll chuck and duck the whole day. I suspect that Suh understands that.

 

[Sommerswerd]

Blitzing and pressuring Brady at all costs has been shown repeatedly to be the most effective strategy against the Patriots... however, most teams are reluctant to use it because "you can't blitz Brady cause he'll just see the uncovered guy pick you apart"... but my feeling is that if you don't force him to throw it away quick, then he just sits back there and picks you apart anyway.

Like I said, the Pats approach to heavy blitzing is to go max protection with minimal receivers, and a late checkdown guy releasing once the blitz has been picked up. The goal being to just let Brady sit back there until the one or two targets manages to get open for an instant, since Brady is fully capable of threading the needle. If neither guy gets open then he goes to the checkdown or just throws it away. I expect to see Suh getting doubleteamed all night.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

I just read someone else saying they expect Aaron Donald to be triple teamed all night. Three on Donald and two on Suh doesn't leave much to work with.

The thing about blitzing Brady is true enough, he will hit the hot slant before the blitz gets home more often than not. The key is to go out there on the first drive and just not care that he hit the hot slant, take the fifteen yards, and hit him anyway. Even among his slobbering hero worshipers it's generally accepted that if he takes a hard hit he gets happy feet for the rest of the game. Let him know early that short term results be damned he is going to get punished and he'll fold.

 

[Sommerswerd]

That's why they will have to go with max protection. You can't block Suh or Donald one-on-one that's just madness. So that's a minimum of 4 just for those two guys. If you add a 3rd guy for Suh/Donald duty that gives you 7 blockers for the 4 man rush, add one guy for the blitz and it gives you 8. Obviously Brady can't throw it to himself so that's 9 staying home.

But the good thing for Brady is that if its 8 on 5 (or even 6 which is insane) nobody's getting through, it will be like a wall, they won't have any opportunity to even get close to him. Suh would have to basically hit him after the whistle... and even Suh isn't that dirty. Plus with his reputation he'd get tossed immediately and fined heavily, and suspended...

So I hear what you're saying but I expect the protection to be pretty lockdown.

 

[caketastydelish]

I will say that this one is incredibly hard to predict. Rams have more talent on both sides of the ball (on paper) but one of these teams has far more veteran presence than the other.

edit: I kind of have to lean on the Rams simply because they have elite cornerbacks. Passing the ball quickly against the corners should be considerably harder.

I will also add that the Rams should have no shortage of motivation to win... considering lots of people think they shouldn't even be there in the first place. They do have a lot to prove.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

That's why they will have to go with max protection. You can't block Suh or Donald one-on-one that's just madness. So that's a minimum of 4 just for those two guys. If you add a 3rd guy for Suh/Donald duty that gives you 7 blockers for the 4 man rush, add one guy for the blitz and it gives you 8. Obviously Brady can't throw it to himself so that's 9 staying home.

But the good thing for Brady is that if its 8 on 5 (or even 6 which is insane) nobody's getting through, it will be like a wall, they won't have any opportunity to even get close to him. Suh would have to basically hit him after the whistle... and even Suh isn't that dirty. Plus with his reputation he'd get tossed immediately and fined heavily, and suspended...

So I hear what you're saying but I expect the protection to be pretty lockdown.

There's after the whistle and there's after the whistle. One gets you tossed, but the other gets you fifteen yards and a superbowl ring. Strategic fouls are part of just about every sport but American football. Time to catch up. Besides, they don't blow a whistle when the pass is thrown. Quarterbacks don't take illegal hits because pass rushers see them throw and hold up, not because the play is really over. Look how many late hits Brett Favre took in the bountygate game, and how many of them weren't even called.

Meanwhile, do you think the Rams can't cover two man routes? By the Patriots receiving corps? Five man rush, double both guys who go out, and you still have two guys posted up to cover anyone who tries to leak out late. If Talib and Peters both have safety help the Patriots don't have anyone who can get open and even if he has all day Brady won't have anywhere to throw. Those conditions are actually perfect, because eventually there's the one play where someone like Donald or Suh slips off the unexpected side of a block and comes late, but at full speed, and gets to land a blast on Tommy boy.

 

[Sommerswerd]

No way Brady gets through the game without getting sacked, particularly against the rushers the Rams have, but there's no way the Rams can stay in a 6, or even 5 man rush all game. The chessmatch will be the Rams trying to catch the Pats with a blitz when they are sending all 5 guys out on routes for the easy sack and the Patriots trying to catch the Rams blitzing 5 or 6 into max protection for the easy TD.

I'm hoping for a razor close game where the lead changes multiple times and Brady has the ball to end it doing Brady things. It would be a fitting way for him to ride into the sunset.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

No way Brady gets through the game without getting sacked, particularly against the rushers the Rams have, but there's no way the Rams can stay in a 6, or even 5 man rush all game. The chessmatch will be the Rams trying to catch the Pats with a blitz when they are sending all 5 guys out on routes for the easy sack and the Patriots trying to catch the Rams blitzing 5 or 6 into max protection for the easy TD.

I'm hoping for a razor close game where the lead changes multiple times and Brady has the ball to end it doing Brady things. It would be a fitting way for him to ride into the sunset.

If Brady rides into the sunset I'd just as soon it was on a stretcher.

 

[caketastydelish]

I would honestly prefer the Rams win without Brady getting hurt. What an ugly way to win. Especially after the way the Rams won the NFC championship game. If Goff doesn't mess up and the Rams with the turnover battle I'd say they'll most likely win the game. The Rams defense is capable of forcing Brady into making mistakes (he even threw a pick against the Chiefs, whose defense is inferior to the Rams). The Rams are the better team on paper. Theoretically, they should win.

I expect the majority of the stadium to be cheering for the Rams. The fact that it's in Atlanta only makes that more so.

 

[schlaufuchs]

Pats. Picking against Belichick and Brady in the Superbowl is generally a dicey move.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

I would honestly prefer the Rams win without Brady getting hurt.

Oh, me too. As I said initially Brady leaving in tears after throwing more balls to Talib than anyone in a Cheatriots uniform, with the crowd chanting "go home old man," would be the ideal.

I expect the majority of the stadium to be cheering for the Rams. The fact that it's in Atlanta only makes that more so.

A lot more people hate the Cheatriots than the Rams, for sure. I don't know that Atlanta makes any difference since AFAIK there are no local ticket sales for the Super Bowl.

 

[caketastydelish]

People in Atlanta wouldn’t have the expense (or time) disadvantage of having to travel.

The NFL actually bans the home city from being able to buy tickets? That is pretty hard to believe.

Edit: what would stop the locals from just buying the tickets online like everyone else?

Edit 2: Could Brandon Cooks provide valuable intel on how to beat the Patriots? Serious question.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

People in Atlanta wouldn’t have the expense (or time) disadvantage of having to travel.

The NFL actually bans the home city from being able to buy tickets? That is pretty hard to believe.

Edit: what would stop the locals from just buying the tickets online like everyone else?

Nothing stops them. All I meant was that there is no reserve for local sales. With nothing giving them a structural advantage when they jump into the ticket line there's probably not going to be any more Atlanta residents in attendance than, say, residents of Dallas, or Miami, or whatever. Truthfully I'm guessing that outside the team reserves that all the tickets were long since sold before anyone knew who would be playing.

As opposed to more mundane events. For example, when I was a season ticket holder for a minor league hockey team I got 'pre-release opportunity' to purchase tickets to any event in the arena where they were the primary tenant. For another example, when the university I worked at hosted an NCAA tournament event we got the same size block of reserve tickets as the schools who were participating in the tournament got. Those kinds of arrangements would put 'hometown fans' in more of the seats.

 

[caketastydelish]

Cool. Btw the one decisive factor that I think clinches it for me is this Patriots defensive line is simply too weak. When you have a below average defensive line and your opponent has a top offensive line (and top offense in general) that means your defense will probably stay on the field for a long time.

Someone at my work told me that the compensation for the weapons the Rams have defensively, that they will rely on a lot of trick plays to move to the sticks. I trust Belichick to come up with creative schemes, but if there's anyone I trust to stop them it would be Wade Phillips.