[RD] Russia invades Ukraine V: The Turning Tide

[Akka]

War news : things are getting serious again, Russia seemingly has started a new main offensive in Luhansk. It has been a few weeks that the fighting was intense in some select points, with huge amount of losses recorded, but now it's scaling up.
Let's hope that Ukraine can endure and the Western help can ramp up and come in time.

 

[FriendlyFire]

130mm has twice the kinetic energy of the current nato 120mm which seems massive increase in firepower, it also has programable munitions and proxy fuse rounds
Seems like the Germans hedging with the turret being able to operate unmanned, though if its operated without turret crew it wont be able to crewed drone operator
Its also suppose to come with capable anti-drone weapon.360 All round vison

Apparently NATO developed the new 130mm main gun to kill T-14 Armata.
Id imagine it would literally just annihilate any of the Current Russian tanks

https://twitter.com/x/status/1623679503196164098

 

[Lexicus]

No, such weapons are an escalation in themselves. Escalation is an action. The question is not whether that is an escalation, the question is rather what would Russia to in retaliation to further escalate that it CAN do, but is not already doing?

Specifically it poses a nuclear escalation risk. And the answer is that Russia could make a nuclear response if it believed it was under nuclear attack.

As to the rest of your post: chemical weapons are in fact not all that useful on a modern battlefield, though to the extent that the war has bogged down into static trench lines chemical weapons might be more useful (at least until countermeasures are adopted). They are much more useful for terrorizing civilians than they are for killing soldiers.

 

[Verbose]

Specifically it poses a nuclear escalation risk. And the answer is that Russia could make a nuclear response if it believed it was under nuclear attack.

You look funny on the general vicinity of Russia, and there will be a nuclear threat. Short of total passivity, which the Russian government holding these nukes would of course prefer, there is nothing that can be done except deter Russia so that these remain empty threats. Risks are in-built, and just need to be managed. Russia wants them managed in such a way that no one do anything at all, lest Russia break out the nukes.

 

[El_Machinae]

There's a reason why tactical nuke research has been so scary. Even with tactical nukes being used, MAD is still MAD. The entire world is kinda hostage to a specific level of escalation. I just hope and pray that Russian citizens have each identified a pro-Putin local authority figure that they will publicly string up as soon as any nuke is used against Ukraine. I'm probably wrong, but the only possible route to sanity is if the citizenry literally murders the government in a groundswell of rebellion and prays that wealthier nations invest aggressively in the peace dividend. But these explosions of rebellion are a bit like dancing shirtless guy. It's gotta be done, but the 3rd participant is just as important as the first.

As it is, small acts of vandalism against wealthy pro-war Russians would reduce their morale without actually damaging the economy in ways that make it harder for Russians to feed themselves.

 

[red_elk]

A couple of missiles without warheads sent to land in Red Square or big parks in major cities might make a serious point.

Do you think Russia will be more likely to back down or more inclined to peace talks after Moscow historical center is attacked?

 

[Birdjaguar]

Do you think Russia will be more likely to back down or more inclined to peace talks after Moscow historical center is attacked?

Neither. I do not expect Putin to change his behavior at all, but a Ukrainian launched missile without a warhead that crashes in a public space and causes no deaths would send a message to the Russian people.

 

[red_elk]

Neither. I do not expect Putin to change his behavior at all, but a Ukrainian launched missile without a warhead that crashes in a public space and causes no deaths would send a message to the Russian people.

Depending on the damage, I'd be ok with responding by using small yield tactical nuke against Ukrainian military target. As a member of "Russian people" who received your message.

 

[Gedemon]

Meanwhile...

Russia's war on Ukraine latest: Ukraine says some European leaders promise aircraft

 

[Birdjaguar]

Depending on the damage, I'd be ok with responding by using small yield tactical nuke against Ukrainian military target. As a member of "Russian people" who received your message.

The damage? A small crater, downed trees, upheaved pavement and you would respond with a nuke? Putin has been systematically destroying Ukrainian cities en mass. The message of an unarmed missile is is: look at what we are not doing that Putin is doing. If your response to that is to go nuclear, then it is time for more and better stuff to sent from NATO.

 

[red_elk]

The damage? A small crater, downed trees, upheaved pavement

You cannot guarantee that.

The message of an unarmed missile is is: look at what we are not doing that Putin is doing.

The message of unarmed missile is a warning that if you don't do what we say, armed one comes next.

 

[El_Machinae]

Depending on the damage, I'd be ok with responding by using small yield tactical nuke against Ukrainian military target. As a member of "Russian people" who received your message.

You'd break a 60+ year precedent if Ukraine demonstrated the ability to strike deeply into Russia? That's a hell of an escalation.
I was truly hoping you'd actively rebel if your government uses a nuke.

Edit: though to modify the scenario, I'd agree that hitting a military center would be better, except for the concern that it would be covered up from the citizenry.
Edit x2: an air burst of pamphlets would be the goto if the idea was actually communicating with the people, I'd think.

 

[red_elk]

Ok, my responce about nukes was overreaction, I'd like to take it back.
But if you really want to send message to Russia, consider other ways to deliver it, than missile to Red Square.

 

[Farm Boy]

It's game on for round III. We're just pretending it's not.

World is too small, now. There will be leakage. I still think the trigger is in the East.

 

[El_Machinae]

I just can in no way can conceive that 'serious damage' could in any way warrant such a response. Past a certain threshold of damage, it would no longer be 'careless' and more 'accidental'. Like, if the missile hit a school it wouldn't be anywhere near what we've already seen as part of the war already. To do worse that that, it would need some extraordinary bad luck.

 

[Remorseless1]

Damage to the extent Russian missiles rained down on Kiev, Kherson, etc., smashing power plants, apartment complexes, and killing hundreds of civilians for months? Damage like that?

 

[Birdjaguar]

You cannot guarantee that.

The message of unarmed missile is a warning that if you don't do what we say, armed one comes next.

That is the conclusion one comes top when you think everyone else is just like you. I do like the pamphlet idea though.

 

[Verbose]

There's a reason why tactical nuke research has been so scary. Even with tactical nukes being used, MAD is still MAD. The entire world is kinda hostage to a specific level of escalation. I just hope and pray that Russian citizens have each identified a pro-Putin local authority figure that they will publicly string up as soon as any nuke is used against Ukraine. I'm probably wrong, but the only possible route to sanity is if the citizenry literally murders the government in a groundswell of rebellion and prays that wealthier nations invest aggressively in the peace dividend. But these explosions of rebellion are a bit like dancing shirtless guy. It's gotta be done, but the 3rd participant is just as important as the first.

As it is, small acts of vandalism against wealthy pro-war Russians would reduce their morale without actually damaging the economy in ways that make it harder for Russians to feed themselves.

I don't see why you think the Russian public would matter anymore here? As far as we know Russia is firmly policed and under control. People can be quite unhappy, and nothing will happen. Mostly by now they are afraid more than anything. The Russian public is being deterred here, and so far successfully. If that deterrence breaks down, then drastic things can happen quickly, but not just for a bit and not before. Then things end in something moving towards a revolutionary society. But the domestic situation in Russia has already been stacked in such a way as to avoid that.

The tricky question now for the west, as in the supporters of Ukraine, is probably rather if enough is being done to deter the Russian leadership from responding to a gradual escalation of the aid to Ukraine? Ukraine itself is not a deterrent for Russia. What we can write off entirely by now are all ideas that the Russian leadership might be argued into not doing something by somehow appealing to reason or the better angels of their nature. They have to be actively deterred into not responding, because that is why they are opting out of certain things already.

If deterrence against Russia is sufficient and effective, things will not get out of hand. It only will if deterrence is insufficient. What's the actual tipping point? No one knows. Odds are low on not where Russia so far might claim from time to time. And as said, it shifts with the effectiveness of deterrence, (Part of the problem also being that for want of all that much in the way of conventional deterrence, this Russian government has tried to leverage the passive deterrence of the Russian nuclear force into a tool for active intimidation of others – and it is not working as hoped.)

 

[red_elk]

That is the conclusion one comes top when you think everyone else is just like you. I do like the pamphlet idea though.

May be American people would treat missile sent to the center of their capitol by the country they are at war with, as a sign of peaceful intentions. Russians will most certainly not.

 

[Farm Boy]

I'm lost on what peaceful intentions are even possible. A military technical action is a the lowest common denominator action. All you can do is shovel harder.

I guess you can hope he doesn't cut you when he's finished?