Is overpopulation cause for concern?

So what's up?


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Howzabout I quote some of this janx verbatim?
[QUOTE="The Fall of the Roman Empire", Peter Heather (Oxford University Press, 2007) p.122-4]...In his explorations [which took place in the 1950s], Tchalenko came across the remains of a spread of villages, sturdily constructed from limestone blocks, which had been abandoned in the eighth to ninth centuries after the Arab conquest of the region.

The villages showed that these hills had once been the home of a flourishing rural population, which could afford not only to build excellent houses, but to endow their villages with sizable public buildings. This ancient population was much denser than anything the region has supported at any point since, and it clearly made its living from agriculture; Tchalenko believed it produced olive oil commercially. The really revolutionary bit was Tchalenko's discovery that prosperity first hit the region in the later third and early fourth centuries, then continued into the fifth, sixth, and seventh with no sign of decline. [...]

Further archaeological work, using field surveys, has made it possible to test levels of rural settlement and agricultural activity across a wide geographical spread and at different points in the Roman period. Broadly speaking, these surveys have confirmed that Tchalenko's Syrian villages were a far from unique example of late Roman rural prosperity. The central provinces of Roman North Africa (in particular Numidia, Byzacena, and Proconsularis) saw a similar intensification of rural settlement and production at this time. This has been illuminated by separate surveys in Tunisia and southern Libya, where prosperity did not even begin to fall away until the fifth century. Surveys in Greece have produced a comparable picture. And elsewhere in the Near East, the fourth and fifth centuries have emerged as a period of maximum rural development - not minimum, as the orthodoxy would have led us to expect. Investigations in the Negev Desert region of modern Israel have shown that farming also flourished in this deeply marginal environment under the fourth-century Empire. The pattern is broadly similar in Spain and southern Gaul, while recent re-evaluations of rural settlement in Roman Britain have suggested that its fourth-century population reached levels that would only be seen again in the fourteenth. Argument continues as to what figure to put on this maximum, but that late Roman Britain was remarkably densely populated by ancient and medieval standards is now a given. The only areas, in fact, where, in the fourth century, prosperity was not at or close to its maximum for the entire Roman period were Italy and some of the northern European provinces, particularly Gallia Belgica and Germania Inferior on the Rhine frontier. Even here, though, estimates of settlement density have been revised substantially upwards in recent years.

For the poverty of the latter two northern provinces, the explanation probably lies in third-century disruption. [Dachs' note: as well as disruptions of the fourth century...Julian had to repel the famous invasion of the Alemanni at Argentorate, and Valentinian sparred with them again a decade later.] The Rhine frontier region was being heavily raided at the same time as so much energy was being poured into solving the Persian problem, and it may be that rural affluence in parts of the region never recovered. A methodological problem may also provide at least part of the explanation. Roman-period surveys rely on datable finds of commercially produced pottery to identify and date settlements. If a population ceased to import these wares, reverting to undatable locally made ceramics, especially if at the same time they were also building more in wood than in the traditional Roman stone, brick, and tile - which surveys also find - then they would have become more archaeologically invisible. This was happening in several areas of northern Europe by at least the mid-fifth century, so it is far from impossible that the seeming lack of fourth-century inhabitants in parts of the northern Rhine frontier region was caused not by substantial population decline, but by the first appearance of these new habits. The jury is still out.[/QUOTE]
Since one of the primary methods of examining agricultural output in the Roman period is to measure the prosperity level (in terms of goods acquired and apparent population sizes) of the rural populace, and that prosperity, as measured by the increase in opulence (comparatively; we're not talking senators' villas here) of their abodes and the other effects acquired by the rural population, was growing during the relevant period. This would seem to be inconsistent with a drop in food quality.

Oh, by the way, preemptive comment on the so-called "agri deserti", "deserted lands" - this doesn't mean desertification of productive land. Basically all of the territory referred to as agri deserti is North African wilderness, not the productive territories in what is now Tunisia and eastern Algeria. This just means land from which no taxes were taken, too, and is thus further inappropriate for determining the size of any sort of ecological disaster area, were one to exist.
 
perhaps the land is currently useless because of what they did, after all Rome wasn't built in a day, nor did it fall in a wall,
BTW disease and agriculture are very related, because more food=more population=faster spreading and generally more lethal diseases... (because it can spread faster, the disease doesn't need its host to last as long)
 
perhaps the land is currently useless because of what they did, after all Rome wasn't built in a day, nor did it fall in a wall,
The land is useless now, when there are a vastly larger number of people living there, because of use two thousand years ago? :confused:
civ_king said:
BTW disease and agriculture are very related, because more food=more population=faster spreading and generally more lethal diseases... (because it can spread faster, the disease doesn't need its host to last as long)
Yes, typical Malthusian control. But the point in the direct response to Narz's direct question was that the later Roman-era agriculture was not suffering production or indeed quality problems. Anyway, the problem for the Romans was manifold, including more powerful enemies, internal political-military problems (i.e. really sick numbers of civil wars), and losing control of the really productive agricultural regions like North Africa that were doing extremely well during the period. Add in some nasty turns of fate like the death of Constantius III and the change of the wind off Cape Bon in 468 and boom, no more Western Empire. Reductivist attempts to claim that it was any one thing like ecological factors (which didn't really play a major role anyway), or barbarians in the military (more bollocks), or Christianity (even more bollocks) are intellectually dishonest.
 
The land is useless now, when there are a vastly larger number of people living there, because of use two thousand years ago? :confused:

I don't know how many people are living there now, or where they get their food. But yes, land can be made useless for 1000s of years by unsustainable agricultural practices. Many places have only so much fertile top soil on them. Once that's eroded away it takes physical replacement or vast amounts of work to fix. Leaving it desert just means that it stays desert until there's a major climate shift.
 
I don't know how many people are living there now, or where they get their food. But yes, land can be made useless for 1000s of years by unsustainable agricultural practices. Many places have only so much fertile top soil on them. Once that's eroded away it takes physical replacement or vast amounts of work to fix. Leaving it desert just means that it stays desert until there's a major climate shift.
Well, how many people are living in France? How about Spain? Greece? I betcha it's more than the later Roman Imperial period. And, the agriculture in north Africa was mostly olive oil anyway, not for food purposes anyway.
 
There's a difference between France, which was never badly over farmed, and the mideast and fertile crescent that was. How many people would that land support today on the farming practices and tools available then? Not that many compared to what it use to, I'd bet.


We are better at farming than the Romans. That's a given. That doesn't change the fact that a huge amount of the land is inferior now to what it used to be.

And it is that deterioration of the land that th big scary.
 
There's a difference between France, which was never badly over farmed, and the mideast and fertile crescent that was. How many people would that land support today on the farming practices and tools available then? Not that many compared to what it use to, I'd bet.
Well, unless you plan on doing a gigantic social engineering experiment there's really no way to know; too, perhaps the selection gave a somewhat overlarge impression of late Roman populations. Any way you slice it, the population of the entire Empire never got above 150 million at the highest estimates, and that was before the Aurelian plague of the late second century. Population density compared to the subsequent few centuries was high, but by today's standards it was basically miniscule. Considering the volume of land use in the region since that period of time, it seems really silly to claim that the Romans desertified the area.
 
it seems really silly to claim that the Romans desertified the area.

Not at all. Far smaller populations than that have ruined local ecologies. Have you read "Collapse"? I'm not saying you have to agree with everything Diamond says, but a key point you should get out of it is that every location has it's own specific ability to support life. And if you max out and ruin that location, well it's not coming back on it's own. Not in the time frame of human history, in any case. In many locations the topsoil took 100s of 1000s of year to build up to the point where the area appeared to be a lush garden spot. But that can be ruined in a couple centuries of really bad practices. In other places the soil was deposited by glaciers. Wanna wait for the next one before starting over?
 
Summoning Malthus, a deniers last resort.

Except the fact that pointing out that the doomsayers have been screaming about overpopulation for 200 odd years isn't a "last resort". It's pointing out the fact that doomsayers like screaming about overpopulation even if there's no reason of which to be screaming about overpopulation.

The only problem with your theory is that it's dead wrong.

No, it's not.

The Romans didn't think they'd collapse. They did. The Mayans didn't. They did. Rome's metropolitan area population dropped from almost a million to 30,000 or so, the Mayan's disappeared altogether. Collapses have happened countless times, it's nothing new really. Collapse of an unsustainable system is the norm. It just hasn't happened on a global scale yet because the world has never before been globalized.

One problem with your equivocation: Neither the Romans nor the Mayans "collapsed" because of an "unsustainable" population.

Factually, eh? Now it's your turn to provide sources. Real sources not some random economist (any economist is not a valid source as far as I'm concerned, they are to scientists what a weatherman is to a climatologist).

*Ahem*

First of all, this.

In an ecotechnology-oriented approach, sustainable agriculture resembles the current system of "integrated" Western European agriculture, but one in which the emerging shortcomings are minimized. Maximum production per unit of land implies a high level of inputs resulting in a high level of outputs. A contrasting, environment-oriented approach holds that this production technology cannot be continued in the long run, because pollution and pest problems will continue to build up on farms and in the environment. Sustainable agricultural production systems should avoid use of nitrogen fertilizers and biocides (fertilizer minerals are irreplaceable) and should recycle nutrients at the local level. Under this system, maximum yields per hectare will be only one-third as high...

...At a global level, four times more food can be produced than required using environment-oriented agriculture and nine times more using ecotechnology-oriented agriculture. When ecotechnology-oriented agriculture is practiced in the reference demand scenario, all regions can provide all of the food necessary. However, using environment-oriented agriculture, some regions in Asia cannot produce enough food to meet their needs or can produce barely enough, even with maximum utilization of natural resources...

...In all cases, three times more land is required for environment-oriented agricultural production systems than for ecotechnology-oriented systems. Consequently, the choice of the production technique has a major effect on global land use. Depending on the diet selected, Europe can grow an adequate food supply on 30-50 percent of its suitable land, North America on 20 percent of its land, and South America and Oceania on even smaller fractions.

Ahd then this.

Current and potential arable land use in Africa. Out of the total land area in Africa, only a fraction is used for arable land. Using soil, land cover and climatic characteristics a FAO study has estimated the potential land area for rainfed crops, excluding built up areas and forests – neither of which would be available for agriculture. According to the study, the potential – if realised – would mean an increase ranging from 150 – 700% percent per region, with a total potential for the whole of Africa in 300 million hectares. Note that the actual arable land in 2003 is higher than the potential in a few countries, like Egypt, due to irrigation.

I've gotta' go find the statistic for South America. I've seen it before, just gotta' remember where.
 
Not at all. Far smaller populations than that have ruined local ecologies. Have you read "Collapse"? I'm not saying you have to agree with everything Diamond says, but a key point you should get out of it is that every location has it's own specific ability to support life. And if you max out and ruin that location, well it's not coming back on it's own. Not in the time frame of human history, in any case. In many locations the topsoil took 100s of 1000s of year to build up to the point where the area appeared to be a lush garden spot. But that can be ruined in a couple centuries of really bad practices. In other places the soil was deposited by glaciers. Wanna wait for the next one before starting over?
Yeah, I've read Diamond's books. I thought the way he completely whiffed on Greenland was amusing. Further, I don't think you fully understand what's going on, here. In the regions you mentioned as kinda objectionable - Syria, north Africa - agricultural productivity boomed for some four centuries, and the population decrease after Roman rule was ended (and Arab Muslim rule was imposed) was connected more with the flight of Christian peoples to Anatolia and the depopulated northern Balkans, which had been the catspaw of nomadic and seminomadic groups for centuries...not due to agricultural issues. Under the Caliphates, population recovered easily enough.
 
Yeah, I've read Diamond's books. I thought the way he completely whiffed on Greenland was amusing. Further, I don't think you fully understand what's going on, here. In the regions you mentioned as kinda objectionable - Syria, north Africa - agricultural productivity boomed for some four centuries, and the population decrease after Roman rule was ended (and Arab Muslim rule was imposed) was connected more with the flight of Christian peoples to Anatolia and the depopulated northern Balkans, which had been the catspaw of nomadic and seminomadic groups for centuries...not due to agricultural issues. Under the Caliphates, population recovered easily enough.

But what will many of those areas sustain now? We have selectively bread seeds, fertilizer, insecticide, other things never dreamed of then. And don't overlook the fact that many populated areas are net food importers. And in many others malnutrition is rampant.

I don't know where the limit is on what the Earth can support indefinitely. My concern is that that number is declining even as the actual number of people rises. Tech change will offset that in part. But to what extent?
 
But what will many of those areas sustain now? We have selectively bread seeds, fertilizer, insecticide, other things never dreamed of then. And don't overlook the fact that many populated areas are net food importers. And in many others malnutrition is rampant.
I dunno, I'm not responsible for the sustainability or lack thereof of Syria after the Ba'athist-driven land reform that they needed to help them industrialize, or anything of that vein...just the Roman era. :p
 
I've been tempted to start a thread much like this one myself. My biggest concern is deforestation due to human encroachment, which means all of our favorite majestic animals will become extinct due to lack of food and habitat and simply a place to live. That means no more Tigers, Lions, Gorrillas, Leopards, Elephants Chimpanzees, Orangutangs, etc etc etc. You name your favorite animal; if it doesn't have a place to live and sustain wild populations, then it will no longer exist. Human overpopulation and our need for resources (or simply economical greed) that come from such wild enviornments is a serious concern. And the more people there are, the more serious this problem becomes.

The sad part about this issue is that it can lead to rationlizing into negative thoughts about why some historic cotastrophes to happen human populations really aren't that bad and a nescessary evil for the health of the earth.

What do you think are solutions?
 
I'm not going to read it, I don't have time.

If you have time to post on CFC, you will have time to read one very good, interesting and eye-opening book.

However saying go read this doesn't prove a point. Your theory assumes that these unsustainable practices will continue indefinitely it also probably not an overly robust idea. It also assumes present levels of consumption are maintained.

Actually, the author examined the policy developments and the strength of certain lobby groups (farmers for instance) and writes about that too. Australia probably can't sustain more than a half of its present day population living at first world living standards, so it's safe to assume the exploitative destruction of the natural habitats will continue in the future. Especially since Australia is seeking to increase its population even more.

The continent simply can't feed and sustain some 40 million people who want to live like Americans.

Lets assume though the world is overpopulated, thats there's 'carrying capacities' that have been exceeded. Australia is none the less far less vulnerable.

Here's a link to a website that shares your opinion that the world is overpopulated and indeed has quantified it:
http://www.population.org.au/index.php/population/affluence/carrying-capacity/142-carrying-capacity

Reputedly Australia population now 22 million has a capacity at present consumption of 10 million, and 21 million if we live modestly. Indeed if the theory holds prices will quickly rise we won't be able to presumably afford to live the present lifestyle. Indeed we're quite close to sustainable under this theory.

The world meanwhile has a capacity of 4.6 billion under present lifestyle, 3.1 billion if we live modestly. Implying relative to the world Australia is better off.

Lets take a couple of your pillars of sustainability. Japan with its then population of 127 million has a capacity of 13 million under present lifestyle, 23 million under a modest lifestyle. Clearly by any stretch of the imagination japan is overpopulated relative to Australia.

Western Europe then population 387 million, present lifestyle capacity 129 million, modest lifestyle 251 million. Welcome to mass starvation. Eastern and central Europe then population 350 million, present capacity 238 million and modest capacity 286 million.



Not entirely true, we have more arable land per capita than anywhere in the world. In terms of water availability per capita we rank 19th in the world:
http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/env_wat_ava-environment-water-availability
In terms of severe water stress we're 64th in the world, so there's 63 countries worse off:
http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/env_wat_sev_wat_str-environment-water-severe-stress
Bare in mind alot of that water contributes to food we export. We have water issues thats mostly due to management though. Often water is too cheap, there's usually no proper market, its usually provided by the government. Alot of the problem could be solved with storage and transferring water from high rainfall areas to low rainfall areas.

Global warming though is a different proposition to food sustainability. We may pollute more than most however this has nothing to do with overpopulation, its entirely due to placing no real cost on pollution.


Live modestly - do you have any idea what it would mean? I imagine the Australians wouldn't like to ration water (no lengthy showers every day), give up on eating juicy steakes whenever they want, on driving cars, using plastics etc. etc. Telling the first world citizens that they have to live modestly would be like saying to a millionaire that he has to live in a shack with three other people.

Diamond estimates that if the Third World countries achieved current first world living standards, the global human impact on the enviroment would increase 11-fold, whereas the present-day impact is probably unsustainable as it is. If only China reached Western living standrads, the impact would double.

The sad fact is that humanity has crossed the line a long time ago and there is no way back. The first world people will not give up on their luxury benefits, the developing countries will continue to try hard to catch up with the first world, and the third world people will continue to live in poverty and multiply until they destroy the countries they live in and collapse into famine and genocide.

Unlike Diamond, I am not optimistic about the future.
 
There's a difference between France, which was never badly over farmed, and the mideast and fertile crescent that was. How many people would that land support today on the farming practices and tools available then? Not that many compared to what it use to, I'd bet.

Don't forget that the climate in France is exceptionally favourable for agriculture, compared to the not-so-fertile crescent or some south European regions along the Mediterranian coast.

France has enough rainfall which means faster forest growth and thus the soil generally regenerates much faster. And this is true for most of non-Meditteranean Europe, the continent is practically an agricultural heaven. What we need is to abolish CAP and promote less damaging agricultural techniques and production, then Europe with its stabilized population can live sustainably.
 
One problem with your equivocation: Neither the Romans nor the Mayans "collapsed" because of an "unsustainable" population.

That's so painfully wrong :lol: Really, you should read the book. Mayan case is thoroughly examined there and when you learn what they did with their environment (twice!), you realize how stupid are all the people living today who believe the world can sustain another 5 million humans.

Anyway, you forced me to quote from the book:

Collapse by Jared Diamond

To summarize the Classic Maya collapse, we can tentatively identify five
strands. I acknowledge, however, that Maya archaeologists still disagree vigorously
among themselves—in part, because the different strands evidently
varied in importance among different parts of the Maya realm; because detailed
archaeological studies are available for only some Maya sites; and because
it remains puzzling why most of the Maya heartland remained nearly
empty of population and failed to recover after the collapse and after regrowth
of forests.

With those caveats, it appears to me that one strand consisted of population
growth outstripping available resources
: a dilemma similar to the one
foreseen by Thomas Malthus in 1798 and being played out today in Rwanda
(Chapter 10), Haiti (Chapter 11), and elsewhere. As the archaeologist David
Webster succinctly puts it, "Too many farmers grew too many crops on too
much of the landscape."
Compounding that mismatch between population
and resources was the second strand: the effects of deforestation and hillside
erosion, which caused a decrease in the amount of useable farmland at a
time when more rather than less farmland was needed, and possibly exacerbated
by an anthropogenic drought resulting from deforestation, by soil nutrient
depletion and other soil problems, and by the struggle to prevent
bracken ferns from overrunning the fields.


The third strand consisted of increased fighting, as more and more people
fought over fewer resources. Maya warfare, already endemic, peaked just
before the collapse.
That is not surprising when one reflects that at least
5,000,000 people, perhaps many more, were crammed into an area smaller
than the state of Colorado (104,000 square miles). That warfare would have
decreased further the amount of land available for agriculture, by creating
no-man's lands between principalities where it was now unsafe to farm.
Bringing matters to a head was the strand of climate change. The drought at
the time of the Classic collapse was not the first drought that the Maya had
lived through, but it was the most severe.
At the time of previous droughts,
there were still uninhabited parts of the Maya landscape, and people at a site
affected by drought could save themselves by moving to another site. However,
by the time of the Classic collapse the landscape was now full, there was no useful
unoccupied land in the vicinity on which to begin anew, and the whole population
could not be accommodated in the few areas that continued to have reliable
water supplies.


As our fifth strand, we have to wonder why the kings and nobles failed to
recognize and solve these seemingly obvious problems undermining their
society. Their attention was evidently focused on their short-term concerns of
enriching themselves, waging wars, erecting monuments, competing with each
other, and extracting enough food from the peasants to support all those
activities. Like most leaders throughout human history, the Maya kings and
nobles did not heed long-term problems
, insofar as they perceived them.
We
shall return to this theme in Chapter 14.

Finally, while we still have some other past societies to consider in this book
before we switch our attention to the modern world, we must already be struck
by some parallels between the Maya and the past societies discussed in Chapters
2-4. As on Easter Island, Mangareva, and among the Anasazi, Maya
environmental and population problems led to increasing warfare and civil
strife. As on Easter Island and at Chaco Canyon, Maya peak population numbers
were followed swiftly by political and social collapse
.
Paralleling the eventual
extension of agriculture from Easter Island's coastal lowlands to its uplands, and
from the Mimbres floodplain to the hills, Copan's inhabitants also expanded
from the floodplain to the more fragile hill slopes, leaving them with a larger
population to feed when the agricultural boom in the hills went bust.
Like Easter
Island chiefs erecting ever larger statues, eventually crowned by pukao, and like
Anasazi elite treating themselves to necklaces of 2,000 turquoise beads, Maya
kings sought to outdo each other with more and more impressive temples, covered
with thicker and thicker plaster—reminiscent in turn of the extravagant
conspicuous consumption by modern American CEOs. The passivity of Easter
chiefs and Maya kings in the face of the real big threats to their societies
completes our list of disquieting parallels.


The most important warning we should take from this is that collapse occurs after the population reaches its peak. Obviously, the people look back and say "hey, everything is fine, we're moving in the right direction!" That is, they say it before they die, like someone falling from a skyscraper who says "so far so good" every time he flies by another storey. Yeah, he can say that until he hits the ground.

When I look at today's world, I see the Maya scenario on a global scale. People are repeating the same mistakes, they're as ignorant as to what will happen in the future if they don't change their ways and as the Maya, the climate change is coming to "test" our ability to survive.
 
What about the case of the Romans, old boy? Also, why did Diamond suck so hard at the whole Greenland thing?
 
What about the case of the Romans, old boy? Also, why did Diamond suck so hard at the whole Greenland thing?

I don't suppose you're talking to me, but the only obvious mistake Diamond made in the Greenland case was the fish thing. The environmental causes of the collapse were identified mostly correctly, IMO.
 
That fish thing seems at least semi-important to me, but meh. Not reeeally my field. But Rome is. Can you agree that the Western Roman state's decline and eventual collapse was not due to any sort of population problems?
 
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