[RD] USA Senate - 2016

[onejayhawk]

Democrats are pulling money out of Florida and conceding to Rubio. Not a good last few weeks of polling. Voters appear to be both separating Trump from down ballotors and also wanting a "check" on Hillary with a Republican congress, aka, more dysfunction.

That's a big stone in the pond. Ripples could be substantial.

538 still has the Democrats as better than 50% to take control, but it's close. Enten did an article on ballot splitting. There are also signs that the Clinton bump has topped.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features...crats-are-losing-ground/?ex_cid=2016-forecast

J

 

[AdrienIer]

A fox poll in Florida is showing a tie between Rubio and Murphy. Trump's fall didn't have an impact on congressional races for a while but apparently not any more

 

[Sommerswerd]

Pres Obama is down there furiously tying that anvil securely to the drowning Rubiobot's ankle, ... and then pushing them both overboard... there is no escape...

 

[GoodEnoughForMe]

Obama is really the Dems not-so-secret ultimate weapon.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

All he has to do is walk on stage and the consequences of a Republican congress are laid bare. "Hi, I'm your very popular president. Ever wonder how you could like me so much and still be so dissatisfied with the direction the country is headed?"

 

[mrt144]

All he has to do is walk on stage and the consequences of a Republican congress are laid bare. "Hi, I'm your very popular president. Ever wonder how you could like me so much and still be so dissatisfied with the direction the country is headed?"

I lost a facebook friend over his bold statement that Obama was the worst president ever. So worth it.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

I lost a facebook friend over his bold statement that Obama was the worst president ever. So worth it.

As long as they can withstand being openly laughed at I don't mind when they do that.

 

[onejayhawk]

The Democrats had a big bounce when Trump's recorded comments came out. That has played out. We are back to where we were about three weeks ago, which is that the Democrats are favored to win control by roughly 2-1. The likelihood of a 50-50 split is not small. With Clinton seemingly in control of the Presidential race, that counts as a portion of the winning odds. The odds on outright control are more 3-2.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/?ex_cid=2016-forecast

J

 

[Timsup2nothin]

When you own the tie breaker a fifty fifty split is outright control...but don't let facts rain on your fantasies J.

 

[AdrienIer]

For once I'll side with J here, because that's basically what he said. "the likelihood of a 50-50 split is not small.[...] that [that = the senate ending up 50-50] counts as a portion of the winning odds"

 

[Timsup2nothin]

For once I'll side with J here, because that's basically what he said. "the likelihood of a 50-50 split is not small.[...] that [that = the senate ending up 50-50] counts as a portion of the winning odds"

The odds for control are 2-1. When he closed with a downgrade to 3-2 for "outright control" he was fantasizing, since control is control. It has nothing to do with taking sides, it's just the endless conflict between J and reality.

 

[onejayhawk]

For once I'll side with J here, because that's basically what he said. "the likelihood of a 50-50 split is not small.[...] that [that = the senate ending up 50-50] counts as a portion of the winning odds"

For both sides. In that case control rides with the Presidential race. Currently that race is about 6-1 for the Democrats.

J

 

[metalhead]

86-13 is actually closer to 7-1. And that's a conservative estimate. Upshot has it at over 10-1.

 

[onejayhawk]

86-13 is actually closer to 7-1. And that's a conservative estimate. Upshot has it at over 10-1.

Cherry-picking polls again? How Trumplike.

Rounding depends on the fraction. 86.5-13.5 rounds to 6-1. Anything over about 13.3 rounds down. In the specific case both polls round down.

It may be moot because the trend is up. All three are over 70 today. The odds on a clear Democrat win, ie 51 seats, is now over 60%

J

 

[metalhead]

What are you even talking about? Upshot isn't a poll. Don't be stupid.

 

[Bootstoots]

The odds for control are 2-1. When he closed with a downgrade to 3-2 for "outright control" he was fantasizing, since control is control. It has nothing to do with taking sides, it's just the endless conflict between J and reality.

It may still be worthwhile to note the difference between 50-50 (51-50 with the VP) and 51-49 though. At 50-50, a single death/resignation/defection switches party control immediately, as the Reps found out when they had a 50-50 Senate in 2001 and then Jim Jeffords switched to being an independent, giving the Senate to the Dems.

 

[onejayhawk]

What are you even talking about? Upshot isn't a poll. Don't be stupid.

It isn't stupid, just inaccurate. Upshot is a valid source that does not happen to be a poll. I always liked the comparison charts. Unfortunately for NYT, there is only one Nate Silver.

J

 

[danjuno]

What the hell is going on with the polls in Kentucky? Last two polls anybody seems to have bothered with in that race have Paul only up 30ish to Jim Gray's 20ish with 40ish undecided.

That aside, 538 has the Ds winning 52-48 at this point (taking IL, WI, IN, PA, NH, and MO), though I'm surprised they don't have Burr as a photo finish with Ross.

 

[Camikaze]

This is the link for the polls. No explanation is given for the high undecided numbers. It also apparently shows about 30% undecided and Trump only up by 3 for the presidential race too.

 

[danjuno]

The mystery grows. Any idea what gives?