SGOTM 07 - Smurkz
- Thread starter AlanH
- Start date
Ok, here's the deal after checking in the code. If an AI is declared upon by anyone, all previous war plans are cancelled, period. So if we get either Asoka or Caesar to attack Kublai, we're safe!
So, do we want to sign in one or both? Caesar is considerably cheaper (from our perspective), taking non-monopoly techs Banking and Education to do it. As noted Asoka wants Printing Press and Economics, as well as 490 gp. Caesar is also next-door neighbor with Kublai, for better or worse. And it would leave Asoka open to attack someone else, i.e. Toku.
By current plans, we're planning to get Kublai to +9. That means he would still vote for us at +8, with a -1 War Ally demerit, assuming he doesn't vote for Catherine instead. That's another point in favor of only picking one of the two.
For the record, HC and Frederick are both Pleased with Kublai, and we would get a -1 Declared War on Friend with them if we joined the war. It's also too early to hope that Shared War modifiers will help us get Caesar to like us, since they would wear off before the vote.
Caesar still won't sign OB. Grr, what's up with him anyway??
So, do we want to sign in one or both? Caesar is considerably cheaper (from our perspective), taking non-monopoly techs Banking and Education to do it. As noted Asoka wants Printing Press and Economics, as well as 490 gp. Caesar is also next-door neighbor with Kublai, for better or worse. And it would leave Asoka open to attack someone else, i.e. Toku.
By current plans, we're planning to get Kublai to +9. That means he would still vote for us at +8, with a -1 War Ally demerit, assuming he doesn't vote for Catherine instead. That's another point in favor of only picking one of the two.
For the record, HC and Frederick are both Pleased with Kublai, and we would get a -1 Declared War on Friend with them if we joined the war. It's also too early to hope that Shared War modifiers will help us get Caesar to like us, since they would wear off before the vote.
Caesar still won't sign OB. Grr, what's up with him anyway??
Thinking about it, we got really lucky that we had time to see Khan's stack coming. If they'd been able to enter our borders this turn, we'd have been SOL. Therefore, I'd like to use our units, as they're produced, as pickets a turn or so move outside our borders, so we can see if anyone else decides to do the same thing. We should also produce one galleon and station it a few tiles to the west.
As for who should do our dirty work for us -- can we look at all the civs that are currently planning wars, and see who is bribeable against them? It's best to keep as many options open as possible, in case Saladin or Alex shows up with a stack in the near future.
As for who should do our dirty work for us -- can we look at all the civs that are currently planning wars, and see who is bribeable against them? It's best to keep as many options open as possible, in case Saladin or Alex shows up with a stack in the near future.
Excellent suggestions both of them.
I don't have the game at hand right now, but I seem to recall that there are several (both Asoka and JC among them) who would go against Alex. It's much much trickier to find someone who would be willing to attack Cathy or Saladin, in the case of need. Cathy herself would probably attack Saladin for the right price, but she's already busy. Perhaps Monty would consider attacking Cathy? We'll have to check.
I don't have the game at hand right now, but I seem to recall that there are several (both Asoka and JC among them) who would go against Alex. It's much much trickier to find someone who would be willing to attack Cathy or Saladin, in the case of need. Cathy herself would probably attack Saladin for the right price, but she's already busy. Perhaps Monty would consider attacking Cathy? We'll have to check.
Here's a new spreadsheet. Key points include researching Gunpowder right away, and adopting HR earlier to get +4 with key AIs (Kublai, HC, Cathy, not Hatty who caps at 3). With a few forest chops for the UN, we can still win in 55 turns as planned.
I'm also interested in looking at one sheet where go straight for SciMeth now, and trade for GP once it's available. I'm not sure if there's any real gain in doing that though, it would be really hard to get that win 4 turns earlier, and since the above scenario should work out...
In theory we also have the time to build Broadway once we get Electricity, before the UN build must start. We should have 7 Riflemen by then, so if we're feeling safe with that... Building it would give us 13 turns with 5 Hit Musicals to gift away, that's ~ an extra +1 relations with someone (assuming we shuffle around the resources to make all 5 count).
Another idea I had was to go for Chemistry instead of Rifling. Grenadiers are 12 to the 14 of Riflemen, they aren't weak to Grenadiers like Riflemen are, Chemistry is cheaper than Rifling, and Chemistry is a prereq to more interesting techs than Rifling (Biology, Steel, Steam Power).
Thoughts?
I'm also interested in looking at one sheet where go straight for SciMeth now, and trade for GP once it's available. I'm not sure if there's any real gain in doing that though, it would be really hard to get that win 4 turns earlier, and since the above scenario should work out...
In theory we also have the time to build Broadway once we get Electricity, before the UN build must start. We should have 7 Riflemen by then, so if we're feeling safe with that... Building it would give us 13 turns with 5 Hit Musicals to gift away, that's ~ an extra +1 relations with someone (assuming we shuffle around the resources to make all 5 count).
Another idea I had was to go for Chemistry instead of Rifling. Grenadiers are 12 to the 14 of Riflemen, they aren't weak to Grenadiers like Riflemen are, Chemistry is cheaper than Rifling, and Chemistry is a prereq to more interesting techs than Rifling (Biology, Steel, Steam Power).
Thoughts?
Another benefit of researching Gunpowder ourselves right away is that we can gift that to those in need - like Asoka if we want him to go after Toku.
I had a look at the save, and both Cathy and Saladin are too powerful for anyone to consider attacking them. We'll just have to hope it's not us they're after. We can be positive that Cathy's target is another, the way the target is selected there's no way she would bypass the better targets among her neighbors. Saladin is trickier though, since he's on a continent on his own then all potential targets are equally valid for him. We should be fairly low value for him though.
I could continue to play tomorrow morning, if only I got some comments. I won't play without anyone saying anything at all though.
I had a look at the save, and both Cathy and Saladin are too powerful for anyone to consider attacking them. We'll just have to hope it's not us they're after. We can be positive that Cathy's target is another, the way the target is selected there's no way she would bypass the better targets among her neighbors. Saladin is trickier though, since he's on a continent on his own then all potential targets are equally valid for him. We should be fairly low value for him though.
I could continue to play tomorrow morning, if only I got some comments. I won't play without anyone saying anything at all though.
Updating for turn 137, with 55 turns left to go:
Asoka: 127 (0)
Washington: 118 (0)
Lizzy: 16 (1)
Fred: 65 (1)
JC: 47 (1) -- we should see +1 BR in 3 turns
Hatty: 9 (0)
Saladin: 18 (2)
Louis: 21 (2)
Frigates seem to me the major reason to go for Chemistry. Having a naval defense might be more valuable than a land-based one, since we don't really have any actual threats on our own continent.
I'll continue play either tonight or tomorrow morning.
I'll continue play either tonight or tomorrow morning.
Since I'm bored, a new updated list. Only minor updates to the one a few pages back, primarily related to the HR crowd and Kublai in particular:
Mansa:
Us: +1 Peace, +2 OB, +4 FT, +1 Shared Tech, +5 Civic = +13
Cyrus: +2 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, ~+3 Civic = +10
Cathy: Below 0
Potential problem: Only if Cyrus doesn't go FR, but we have to keep a lookout so they don't start trading techs.
Asoka:
Us: +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, +4 FT, +1 Help = +10
Cyrus: +4 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB = +7
Cathy: +1 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB = +4
Potential problem: If Cyrus goes for US.
Hatty:
Us: +1 Peace, +4 FT, +2 OB, +3 Civic = +10
Cyrus: +2 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +1 BR = +6
Cathy: Below 0
Potential problem: If Cyrus stays in HR, though it should work anyway, she caps at +3. Worse if he doesn't go FR though, but that's very unlikely.
Lizzy:
Us: +1 Peace, +2 OB, +4 FT, +5 Civic, +1 BR, -1 RH = +12
Cyrus: +3 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, ~+3 Civic = +11(!)
Cathy: -2 Hidden, not a problem.
Potential problem: If Cyrus gets FR too early, this could be nasty. We could plan to go for +2 BR though, we must keep track. At +2 BR we should win the day.
Cathy:
Us: +1 Peace, +2 OB, +4 FT, +4 Civic = +11
Cyrus: -1 Hidden, not a problem
Cathy: Doh.
Potential problem: No - only by being opponent.
Frederick:
Us: +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, +4 FT, +1 ST, -1 RH = +9
Cyrus: +2 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB = +5
Cathy: -3 Hidden, not a problem
Potential problem: If Cyrus goes for US, but he must get Democracy within 15 turns to overtake us. Not gonna happen.
Kublai:
Us: -1 Base, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +4 Civic, +4 FT, +1 Help, -1 RT, -1 War Ally = +9
Cyrus: -3 Base, not a problem.
Cathy: +2 Hidden, +1 Peace, ~+5 Civic, +1 OB, -1 Heathens = +8
Potential problem: He might vote for Cathy if she goes FR, if they sign OB too early, or trade resources. As of 540 AD, they don't know each other though, and the longer it stays that way the better.
HC:
Us: -1 Base, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +4 FT, +4 Civic = +10
Cyrus: -1 Base, not a problem.
Cathy: +4 Hidden, +1 Peace, ~+5 Civic, +1 OB, -3 Heathens = +8
Potential problem: If Cathy goes FR, she likely gets his vote, and there's not much we can do about it. By 540 AD (55 turns left) they don't yet know each other. The +1 OB above assumes that they don't meet in the next 5 turns.
Louis:
Us: -1 Base, +1 Peace, +4 FT, +2 OB, +2 BR, +4 Civic = +12
Cyrus: -5 hidden, not a problem
Cathy: +2 Hidden, +1 Peace, +4 Civic, +2 OB, +2 BR, -3 Heathens = +8
Potential problem: Cathy may solve it by attacking some friend of his, meaning Hatty. But even if she goes FR, we should be able to win the day here.
Washington:
Us: -1 Base, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, +4 FT, +1 FT, -1 CB = +8
Cyrus: +2 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB = +5
Cathy: -3 Hidden, not a problem
Potential problem: Not really.
Cyrus:
Us: +1 Peace, +2 OB, +4 FT, +1 BR = +8
Cyrus: Doh.
Cathy: 0 Hidden, shouldn't be a problem. If he's not our opponent, he will need the BR bonus though, not sure where to take it from.
JC:
Us: -1 Base, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, +4 FT, -1 RST = +7
Cyrus: -1 Hidden, not a problem
Cathy: +3 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, -2 Heathens = +4
Potential problem: If we get him to vote for us at all, it shouldn't be a problem, he should have nothing to trade to Cathy.
Saladin:
Us: -1 Base, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, +4 FT, -1 RT, -1 RST = +6
Cyrus: -1 Hidden, not a problem as long as Cyrus goes FR.
Cathy: +5 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, -3 Heathens = +7
Potential problem: Umm, yeah, he will vote for her most likely, if she's the opponent. Unless she starts warring, which doesn't seem unlikely. He likes all her neighbors except Mansa, and that could incur War on Friend demerits. But we would still need to get him to vote for us in the first place. The RT demerit should wear off hopefully, and we can only hope the RST does too.
We don't care about the rest.
Summary of potential problems:
If Cyrus is our opponent: Lizzy, if Cyrus gets FR too early.
If Cathy is our opponent: Kublai, HC, Louis, Saladin.
Still not taking potential Rank modifiers towards us into account. We also hope some will ask us for help, and that they refrain from asking us to stop trading with their sandbox rivals.
Mansa:
Us: +1 Peace, +2 OB, +4 FT, +1 Shared Tech, +5 Civic = +13
Cyrus: +2 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, ~+3 Civic = +10
Cathy: Below 0
Potential problem: Only if Cyrus doesn't go FR, but we have to keep a lookout so they don't start trading techs.
Asoka:
Us: +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, +4 FT, +1 Help = +10
Cyrus: +4 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB = +7
Cathy: +1 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB = +4
Potential problem: If Cyrus goes for US.
Hatty:
Us: +1 Peace, +4 FT, +2 OB, +3 Civic = +10
Cyrus: +2 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +1 BR = +6
Cathy: Below 0
Potential problem: If Cyrus stays in HR, though it should work anyway, she caps at +3. Worse if he doesn't go FR though, but that's very unlikely.
Lizzy:
Us: +1 Peace, +2 OB, +4 FT, +5 Civic, +1 BR, -1 RH = +12
Cyrus: +3 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, ~+3 Civic = +11(!)
Cathy: -2 Hidden, not a problem.
Potential problem: If Cyrus gets FR too early, this could be nasty. We could plan to go for +2 BR though, we must keep track. At +2 BR we should win the day.
Cathy:
Us: +1 Peace, +2 OB, +4 FT, +4 Civic = +11
Cyrus: -1 Hidden, not a problem
Cathy: Doh.
Potential problem: No - only by being opponent.
Frederick:
Us: +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, +4 FT, +1 ST, -1 RH = +9
Cyrus: +2 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB = +5
Cathy: -3 Hidden, not a problem
Potential problem: If Cyrus goes for US, but he must get Democracy within 15 turns to overtake us. Not gonna happen.
Kublai:
Us: -1 Base, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +4 Civic, +4 FT, +1 Help, -1 RT, -1 War Ally = +9
Cyrus: -3 Base, not a problem.
Cathy: +2 Hidden, +1 Peace, ~+5 Civic, +1 OB, -1 Heathens = +8
Potential problem: He might vote for Cathy if she goes FR, if they sign OB too early, or trade resources. As of 540 AD, they don't know each other though, and the longer it stays that way the better.
HC:
Us: -1 Base, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +4 FT, +4 Civic = +10
Cyrus: -1 Base, not a problem.
Cathy: +4 Hidden, +1 Peace, ~+5 Civic, +1 OB, -3 Heathens = +8
Potential problem: If Cathy goes FR, she likely gets his vote, and there's not much we can do about it. By 540 AD (55 turns left) they don't yet know each other. The +1 OB above assumes that they don't meet in the next 5 turns.
Louis:
Us: -1 Base, +1 Peace, +4 FT, +2 OB, +2 BR, +4 Civic = +12
Cyrus: -5 hidden, not a problem
Cathy: +2 Hidden, +1 Peace, +4 Civic, +2 OB, +2 BR, -3 Heathens = +8
Potential problem: Cathy may solve it by attacking some friend of his, meaning Hatty. But even if she goes FR, we should be able to win the day here.
Washington:
Us: -1 Base, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, +4 FT, +1 FT, -1 CB = +8
Cyrus: +2 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB = +5
Cathy: -3 Hidden, not a problem
Potential problem: Not really.
Cyrus:
Us: +1 Peace, +2 OB, +4 FT, +1 BR = +8
Cyrus: Doh.
Cathy: 0 Hidden, shouldn't be a problem. If he's not our opponent, he will need the BR bonus though, not sure where to take it from.
JC:
Us: -1 Base, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, +4 FT, -1 RST = +7
Cyrus: -1 Hidden, not a problem
Cathy: +3 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, -2 Heathens = +4
Potential problem: If we get him to vote for us at all, it shouldn't be a problem, he should have nothing to trade to Cathy.
Saladin:
Us: -1 Base, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, +4 FT, -1 RT, -1 RST = +6
Cyrus: -1 Hidden, not a problem as long as Cyrus goes FR.
Cathy: +5 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, -3 Heathens = +7
Potential problem: Umm, yeah, he will vote for her most likely, if she's the opponent. Unless she starts warring, which doesn't seem unlikely. He likes all her neighbors except Mansa, and that could incur War on Friend demerits. But we would still need to get him to vote for us in the first place. The RT demerit should wear off hopefully, and we can only hope the RST does too.
We don't care about the rest.
Summary of potential problems:
If Cyrus is our opponent: Lizzy, if Cyrus gets FR too early.
If Cathy is our opponent: Kublai, HC, Louis, Saladin.
Still not taking potential Rank modifiers towards us into account. We also hope some will ask us for help, and that they refrain from asking us to stop trading with their sandbox rivals.
I prefer going for Chemistry over Rifling at this point. We *should* be able to distract any aggressors on our own continent by buying in our friends (Asoka) or the nutcases (JC), so long as we see the threat coming. But Saladin's another story, and he does worry me. Frigates sound extremely nice.
Played one more turn: >>The Save<<
The reason I stopped here is because I realize we have the chance to stop all the wars again, right away. Cathy would stop fighting for Education, JC would stop for Liberalism, Izzy would stop for Engineering. Note that all plans are set to NO_WARPLAN at that point, so old grudges and plans to for instance stab us in the back should no longer be valid...
In particular it might be useful to stop Cathy's war, unless we like her to grow larger. I'll edit in some war footage, but I can say right away it's obvious she will capture Memphis, probably next turn already. So either we decide to go up against her as our opponent, or we stop the war now. One thing to note though is that, ridiculously enough, bribing her to stop the war will likely give us RT demerits with Hatty, for trading with Cathy.
EDIT: Here's the war footage I promised. Notice you can see the pitiful defense in the bottom of the shot:
As for the JC war, the main reason not to let it continue is to not be asked to join by someone we care about. On the other hand, JC is difficult to get to vote the right way. Maybe a little pounding would do him good...? Or we could stop his war with Kublai, and let him and Izzy duke it out on their own. We want Izzy out, and we may still get JC on our side in the vote, putting those pop in good hands...
Thoughts, comments?
Spoiler :
The reason I stopped here is because I realize we have the chance to stop all the wars again, right away. Cathy would stop fighting for Education, JC would stop for Liberalism, Izzy would stop for Engineering. Note that all plans are set to NO_WARPLAN at that point, so old grudges and plans to for instance stab us in the back should no longer be valid...
In particular it might be useful to stop Cathy's war, unless we like her to grow larger. I'll edit in some war footage, but I can say right away it's obvious she will capture Memphis, probably next turn already. So either we decide to go up against her as our opponent, or we stop the war now. One thing to note though is that, ridiculously enough, bribing her to stop the war will likely give us RT demerits with Hatty, for trading with Cathy.
EDIT: Here's the war footage I promised. Notice you can see the pitiful defense in the bottom of the shot:
Spoiler :
As for the JC war, the main reason not to let it continue is to not be asked to join by someone we care about. On the other hand, JC is difficult to get to vote the right way. Maybe a little pounding would do him good...? Or we could stop his war with Kublai, and let him and Izzy duke it out on their own. We want Izzy out, and we may still get JC on our side in the vote, putting those pop in good hands...
Thoughts, comments?
I was a bit confused yesterday, this is what I meant to say:
* We could end the war between Cathy and Hatty by giving Hatty Education (not Cathy as I said before) + Guilds. Incredible that you can do that, but obviously it works in Vanilla. Doing so might give us RT demerits with Cathy - but we can afford them, she will likely end up at +11 before they are counted.
* We could end the war between JC and Kublai by giving Kublai Guilds, much cheaper than giving JC Liberalism.
* We could end the war between JC and Izzy by giving Izzy Engineering.
But something more profound that struck me - we actually have it in our power, right now, to decide who we will go up against. If Cathy doesn't war, then Cathy won't overtake Cyrus. And we can stop her whenever she tries, since we can obviously buy peace. So who do we want to face? I say Cyrus, definitely.
There's one other worry though - Saladin is on the rise. Current population numbers are Cyrus 58, Saladin 54, Cathy 52. We probably wouldn't want to face Saladin, even if he's the most difficult to get to vote for us, simply because there's no way we're going to get him out of Hinduism. He has Theology as favored civic and won't consider FR even with three native religions - at least not when we ask for it, I'm unsure what it would take for him to decide to adopt it on his own, seems unlikely at any rate. The other alternative is of course if everyone else is out of Hinduism, hmm... I'll need to count on this for sure, be back soon with some thoughts.
* We could end the war between Cathy and Hatty by giving Hatty Education (not Cathy as I said before) + Guilds. Incredible that you can do that, but obviously it works in Vanilla. Doing so might give us RT demerits with Cathy - but we can afford them, she will likely end up at +11 before they are counted.
* We could end the war between JC and Kublai by giving Kublai Guilds, much cheaper than giving JC Liberalism.
* We could end the war between JC and Izzy by giving Izzy Engineering.
But something more profound that struck me - we actually have it in our power, right now, to decide who we will go up against. If Cathy doesn't war, then Cathy won't overtake Cyrus. And we can stop her whenever she tries, since we can obviously buy peace. So who do we want to face? I say Cyrus, definitely.
There's one other worry though - Saladin is on the rise. Current population numbers are Cyrus 58, Saladin 54, Cathy 52. We probably wouldn't want to face Saladin, even if he's the most difficult to get to vote for us, simply because there's no way we're going to get him out of Hinduism. He has Theology as favored civic and won't consider FR even with three native religions - at least not when we ask for it, I'm unsure what it would take for him to decide to adopt it on his own, seems unlikely at any rate. The other alternative is of course if everyone else is out of Hinduism, hmm... I'll need to count on this for sure, be back soon with some thoughts.
Another update, taking the possibility of Saladin as our opponent into account:
Mansa:
Us: +1 Peace, +2 OB, +4 FT, +1 Shared Tech, +5 Civic = +13
Cyrus: +2 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, ~+3 Civic = +10
Cathy: Below 0
Saladin: -3 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +5 Religion, +2 BR = +7
Potential problem: Only if Cyrus doesn't go FR, but we have to keep a lookout so they don't start trading techs.
Asoka:
Us: +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, +4 FT, +1 Help = +10
Cyrus: +4 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB = +7
Cathy: +1 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB = +4
Saladin: +1 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB = +4
Potential problem: If Cyrus goes for US.
Hatty:
Us: +1 Peace, +4 FT, +2 OB, +3 Civic = +10
Cyrus: +2 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +1 BR = +6
Cathy: Below 0, declared on twice...
Saladin: -3 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, +6 Religion, +3 Civics = +11
Potential problem: If Cyrus stays in HR, though it should work anyway, she caps at +3. Worse if he doesn't go FR though, but that's very unlikely. Also if Saladin is the opponent, unless we can get Hatty to FR.
Lizzy:
Us: +1 Peace, +2 OB, +4 FT, +5 Civic, +1 BR, -1 RH = +12
Cyrus: +3 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, ~+3 Civic = +11(!)
Cathy: -2 Hidden, not a problem.
Saladin: -2 Hidden, not a problem.
Potential problem: If Cyrus gets FR too early, this could be nasty. We could plan to go for +2 BR though, we must keep track. At +2 BR we should win the day.
Cathy:
Us: +1 Peace, +2 OB, +4 FT, +4 Civic = +11
Cyrus: -1 Hidden, not a problem
Cathy: Doh.
Saladin: +5 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, +4 Civic, -4 Heathens = +10
Potential problem: If Saladin is the opponent and she goes for FR.
Frederick:
Us: +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, +4 FT, +1 ST, -1 RH = +9
Cyrus: +2 Hidden, +1 Peace, +1 OB = +4
Cathy: -3 Hidden, not a problem
Saladin: -2 Hidden, not a problem
Potential problem: No.
Kublai:
Us: -1 Base, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +4 Civic, +4 FT, +1 Help, -1 RT, -1 War Ally = +9
Cyrus: -3 Base, not a problem.
Cathy: +2 Hidden, +1 Peace, ~+5 Civic, +1 OB, -1 Heathens = +8
Saladin: +3 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +5 Civic, -1 Heathens = +10
Potential problem: He might vote for Cathy if she goes FR, if they sign OB too early, or trade resources. As of 540 AD, they don't know each other though, and the longer it stays that way the better. Already knows Saladin, and would vote for him unless he ditches HR.
HC:
Us: -1 Base, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +4 FT, +4 Civic = +10
Cyrus: -1 Base, not a problem.
Cathy: +4 Hidden, +1 Peace, ~+5 Civic, +1 OB, -3 Heathens = +8
Saladin: +4 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +5 Civic, -3 Heathens = +9
Potential problem: If Cathy goes FR, she likely gets his vote, and there's not much we can do about it. By 540 AD (55 turns left) they don't yet know each other. The +1 OB above assumes that they don't meet in the next 5 turns. Has already met Saladin, but Saladin is highly unlikely to go FR, and might ditch HR.
Louis:
Us: -1 Base, +1 Peace, +4 FT, +2 OB, +2 BR, +4 Civic = +12
Cyrus: -5 hidden, not a problem
Cathy: +2 Hidden, +1 Peace, +4 Civic, +2 OB, +2 BR, -3 Heathens, -1 Declare on Friend = +7
Saladin: +1 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +4 Civic, +5 Religion = +13
Potential problem: Cathy declared on Hatty, which means Louis is now going to be much easier to please. He won't need the +2 BR even if Cathy goes FR, so we could send the Copper off somewhere else. Saladin is a worse problem though, we clearly need Saladin out of HR.
Washington:
Us: -1 Base, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, +4 FT, +1 ST, -1 CB = +8
Cyrus: +2 Hidden, +1 Peace, +1 OB = +4
Cathy: -3 Hidden, not a problem
Saladin: -3 Hidden, not a problem.
Potential problem: Not really, as long as we get him to vote for us in the first place. Needs a few more techs for that.
Cyrus:
Us: +1 Peace, +2 OB, +4 FT, +1 BR = +8
Cyrus: Doh.
Cathy: 0 Hidden, shouldn't be a problem.
Saladin: 0 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR = +5
Potential problem: Only if he doesn't go FR. If he's not our opponent though, he will need the +1 BR. Take one off Louis most likely.
JC:
Us: -1 Base, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, +4 FT, -1 RST = +7
Cyrus: -1 Hidden, not a problem
Cathy: +3 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, -2 Heathens = +4
Saladin: +3 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB = +6
Potential problem: If we get him to vote for us at all, it shouldn't be a problem, he has nothing to trade to Cathy or Saladin.
Saladin:
Us: -1 Base, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, +4 FT, -1 RT, -1 RST = +6
Cyrus: -1 Hidden, not a problem as long as Cyrus goes FR.
Cathy: +5 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, -3 Heathens, -1 Declared on Friend = +6
Saladin: Doh.
Potential problem: If we get him to vote for us in the first place, we should get that vote. Could be a problem if Cathy goes FR though.
We don't care about the rest.
Summary of potential problems:
If Cyrus is our opponent: Lizzy, if Cyrus gets FR too early.
If Cathy is our opponent: Kublai, HC, Louis, Saladin.
If Saladin is our opponent: Hatty, Cathy(!), Kublai, Louis
Still not taking potential Rank modifiers towards us into account. We also hope some will ask us for help, and that they refrain from asking us to stop trading with their sandbox rivals.
Mansa:
Us: +1 Peace, +2 OB, +4 FT, +1 Shared Tech, +5 Civic = +13
Cyrus: +2 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, ~+3 Civic = +10
Cathy: Below 0
Saladin: -3 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +5 Religion, +2 BR = +7
Potential problem: Only if Cyrus doesn't go FR, but we have to keep a lookout so they don't start trading techs.
Asoka:
Us: +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, +4 FT, +1 Help = +10
Cyrus: +4 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB = +7
Cathy: +1 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB = +4
Saladin: +1 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB = +4
Potential problem: If Cyrus goes for US.
Hatty:
Us: +1 Peace, +4 FT, +2 OB, +3 Civic = +10
Cyrus: +2 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +1 BR = +6
Cathy: Below 0, declared on twice...
Saladin: -3 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, +6 Religion, +3 Civics = +11
Potential problem: If Cyrus stays in HR, though it should work anyway, she caps at +3. Worse if he doesn't go FR though, but that's very unlikely. Also if Saladin is the opponent, unless we can get Hatty to FR.
Lizzy:
Us: +1 Peace, +2 OB, +4 FT, +5 Civic, +1 BR, -1 RH = +12
Cyrus: +3 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, ~+3 Civic = +11(!)
Cathy: -2 Hidden, not a problem.
Saladin: -2 Hidden, not a problem.
Potential problem: If Cyrus gets FR too early, this could be nasty. We could plan to go for +2 BR though, we must keep track. At +2 BR we should win the day.
Cathy:
Us: +1 Peace, +2 OB, +4 FT, +4 Civic = +11
Cyrus: -1 Hidden, not a problem
Cathy: Doh.
Saladin: +5 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, +4 Civic, -4 Heathens = +10
Potential problem: If Saladin is the opponent and she goes for FR.
Frederick:
Us: +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, +4 FT, +1 ST, -1 RH = +9
Cyrus: +2 Hidden, +1 Peace, +1 OB = +4
Cathy: -3 Hidden, not a problem
Saladin: -2 Hidden, not a problem
Potential problem: No.
Kublai:
Us: -1 Base, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +4 Civic, +4 FT, +1 Help, -1 RT, -1 War Ally = +9
Cyrus: -3 Base, not a problem.
Cathy: +2 Hidden, +1 Peace, ~+5 Civic, +1 OB, -1 Heathens = +8
Saladin: +3 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +5 Civic, -1 Heathens = +10
Potential problem: He might vote for Cathy if she goes FR, if they sign OB too early, or trade resources. As of 540 AD, they don't know each other though, and the longer it stays that way the better. Already knows Saladin, and would vote for him unless he ditches HR.
HC:
Us: -1 Base, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +4 FT, +4 Civic = +10
Cyrus: -1 Base, not a problem.
Cathy: +4 Hidden, +1 Peace, ~+5 Civic, +1 OB, -3 Heathens = +8
Saladin: +4 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +5 Civic, -3 Heathens = +9
Potential problem: If Cathy goes FR, she likely gets his vote, and there's not much we can do about it. By 540 AD (55 turns left) they don't yet know each other. The +1 OB above assumes that they don't meet in the next 5 turns. Has already met Saladin, but Saladin is highly unlikely to go FR, and might ditch HR.
Louis:
Us: -1 Base, +1 Peace, +4 FT, +2 OB, +2 BR, +4 Civic = +12
Cyrus: -5 hidden, not a problem
Cathy: +2 Hidden, +1 Peace, +4 Civic, +2 OB, +2 BR, -3 Heathens, -1 Declare on Friend = +7
Saladin: +1 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +4 Civic, +5 Religion = +13
Potential problem: Cathy declared on Hatty, which means Louis is now going to be much easier to please. He won't need the +2 BR even if Cathy goes FR, so we could send the Copper off somewhere else. Saladin is a worse problem though, we clearly need Saladin out of HR.
Washington:
Us: -1 Base, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, +4 FT, +1 ST, -1 CB = +8
Cyrus: +2 Hidden, +1 Peace, +1 OB = +4
Cathy: -3 Hidden, not a problem
Saladin: -3 Hidden, not a problem.
Potential problem: Not really, as long as we get him to vote for us in the first place. Needs a few more techs for that.
Cyrus:
Us: +1 Peace, +2 OB, +4 FT, +1 BR = +8
Cyrus: Doh.
Cathy: 0 Hidden, shouldn't be a problem.
Saladin: 0 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR = +5
Potential problem: Only if he doesn't go FR. If he's not our opponent though, he will need the +1 BR. Take one off Louis most likely.
JC:
Us: -1 Base, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, +4 FT, -1 RST = +7
Cyrus: -1 Hidden, not a problem
Cathy: +3 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, -2 Heathens = +4
Saladin: +3 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB = +6
Potential problem: If we get him to vote for us at all, it shouldn't be a problem, he has nothing to trade to Cathy or Saladin.
Saladin:
Us: -1 Base, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, +4 FT, -1 RT, -1 RST = +6
Cyrus: -1 Hidden, not a problem as long as Cyrus goes FR.
Cathy: +5 Hidden, +1 Peace, +2 OB, +2 BR, -3 Heathens, -1 Declared on Friend = +6
Saladin: Doh.
Potential problem: If we get him to vote for us in the first place, we should get that vote. Could be a problem if Cathy goes FR though.
We don't care about the rest.
Summary of potential problems:
If Cyrus is our opponent: Lizzy, if Cyrus gets FR too early.
If Cathy is our opponent: Kublai, HC, Louis, Saladin.
If Saladin is our opponent: Hatty, Cathy(!), Kublai, Louis
Still not taking potential Rank modifiers towards us into account. We also hope some will ask us for help, and that they refrain from asking us to stop trading with their sandbox rivals.
Ok, I'm going to do a full 180 here. I think we should plan for facing Cathy in the UN vote. Why?
* It's the safe plan. If we decide to go for Cathy as our opponent, then getting her in the opponent's chair is not going to be hard, we just let her continue her little war and she'll manage it on her own. Whereas if we plan for Cyrus, there's always the risk that Cathy or Saladin will outgrow him, both have one town more than Cyrus.
* The ones that are most likely to vote for her are not really very big problems. Saladin and Louis are now less likely to vote for her thanks to her declaration on Hatty - something that may happen again. And Kublai and HC still haven't met her.
* If there are still risks towards the end, we could always ask Cathy to attack her best friend - she would, for the right price. And we have big enough margins with everyone except Saladin to afford a -1 War Ally demerit.
Thoughts on this?
* It's the safe plan. If we decide to go for Cathy as our opponent, then getting her in the opponent's chair is not going to be hard, we just let her continue her little war and she'll manage it on her own. Whereas if we plan for Cyrus, there's always the risk that Cathy or Saladin will outgrow him, both have one town more than Cyrus.
* The ones that are most likely to vote for her are not really very big problems. Saladin and Louis are now less likely to vote for her thanks to her declaration on Hatty - something that may happen again. And Kublai and HC still haven't met her.
* If there are still risks towards the end, we could always ask Cathy to attack her best friend - she would, for the right price. And we have big enough margins with everyone except Saladin to afford a -1 War Ally demerit.
Thoughts on this?
As you know, my one concern with that last idea is that Cathy is not unlikely to be planning a war at the end, in which case we wouldn't be able to bribe her into anything. But there may be ways around that, too, particularly if an existing war can always be stopped with the right ammunition in terms of techs, as seems to be the case.
I agree with that concern. But even so, I still think the chances are better there than with the alternative. Saladin is impossible to do anything with, and if he becomes our opponent then we're toast.
I did a count, assuming that we get everyone we expect to vote for us to actually do so, with Hatty losing Memphis and Toku being killed. We'd be below 60% using current pop numbers, but at 63% if JC votes for us. Hmm...
I did a count, assuming that we get everyone we expect to vote for us to actually do so, with Hatty losing Memphis and Toku being killed. We'd be below 60% using current pop numbers, but at 63% if JC votes for us. Hmm...
Spoiler :
We have currently traded two techs to JC, and it takes (at least) 10 for a ST bonus with him. Getting him to 10 shouldn't be very hard actually. So that's the +1 we're missing - if only he will sign OB with us very very soon. 
Sigh, foiled again. MW have just finished their game it seems, and their last uploaded save is before turn 180. Our own predicted end date is 192, which might be squeezed to 188 if we're really lucky. So we're now competing for silver. 
I'm going to do another complete 180 and say that we shouldn't plan for Cathy as our opponent at all. The reason is that my first and most important post isn't true. If she captures all of Egypt, that's going to be two small hamlets for her, crushed under the cultural weight of Montezuma's might. Memphis would be lucky to support size 3, being trapped in the desert.
Also, I'm no longer so pessimistic about going up against Saladin. In particular, if only we get Cathy on our side then it won't matter how the other uncertains vote, we'll win anyway. And how to get Cathy to not vote on Saladin? Make her declare on him of course!
With this in mind, I now favor doing what we've been doing all along, i.e. planning for all possibilities, until we know for sure who we're facing. That means sending at least one of Louis' resources to Cyrus instead, to secure his vote, and sending our missionaries to Louis and Hatty instead of Cyrus (who already has two religions). We might want to build yet another missionary while we still can, to be on the safe side, in case one of them fails. Mansa can stay Hindu, he's not a problem.
I'm going to do another complete 180 and say that we shouldn't plan for Cathy as our opponent at all. The reason is that my first and most important post isn't true. If she captures all of Egypt, that's going to be two small hamlets for her, crushed under the cultural weight of Montezuma's might. Memphis would be lucky to support size 3, being trapped in the desert.
Also, I'm no longer so pessimistic about going up against Saladin. In particular, if only we get Cathy on our side then it won't matter how the other uncertains vote, we'll win anyway. And how to get Cathy to not vote on Saladin? Make her declare on him of course!
With this in mind, I now favor doing what we've been doing all along, i.e. planning for all possibilities, until we know for sure who we're facing. That means sending at least one of Louis' resources to Cyrus instead, to secure his vote, and sending our missionaries to Louis and Hatty instead of Cyrus (who already has two religions). We might want to build yet another missionary while we still can, to be on the safe side, in case one of them fails. Mansa can stay Hindu, he's not a problem.
