Ukraine Crisis Thread III: a new European order?

Commodore said:

Nobody has been scared off from doing business with Russia, which is the point I was making. Despite all the talks of sanctions there has been no significant decrease in how much business both the US and EU do with Russia. You also completely missed the point when I said the money favors Russia. The point was Russia is a more profitable trading partner than the Ukraine and they are a safer investment due to the fact that they are not a failed state right now. From a purely business perspective there is absolutely no reason to back the Ukraine here. Thus the only argument for the Ukraine would be a moral one, and I simply cannot support that. Moral arguments and foolish idealism are what lead to major wars.

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The business continues. Partly because it's hard to cold-turkey — especially if it means homes in Romania, Bulgaria etc. grow cold if it's done — partly because it's because cheap energy is just downroght profitable for the EU. Partly it's because the idea still is that trade fosters more positive relations, even with Russia.

None of that gainsays the fact that Russia has started to take advantage of the trade relations it has so far developed. So we can trade with it, but Russia will still use such relationships for extortion as and when opportunity arises, with a sideline in military invasions and annexations as it sees fit, secure in it own conviction that the westerners are too decadent and spinless to dare to do anything about it all.

We have a problem regardless if Russia is correct in that we, the west, is spinless and decadent, or if it has gotten that bit wrong. Granted, we have a bigger problem if the view from Russia is the correct one, but even if it's not, Putin's Russia is still acting on the premise that it has got us pegged as useless rotters, ripe for intimidation and domination, too complacent and convenient not to simply run away from a challenge.

We are being challenged here. This is also a test, akin to the "KGB stare".

I am not that sure that the average russian is more about 'intimidation' than the average 'westerner' (itself a rather dumb term). Afterall it was not Russia that invaded 10 countries so as to clean them from their WMDs.

Winner said:

People of Europe who have decided after WW2 that enough is enough. What it sounds to your ears is inconsequential.

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This is just priceless. Imagine what a person 'after WW2' would think of the current EU

No one invaded 10 countries over WMDs.

There was rather more to specifically Iraq than just "the west" invading.

All conflict isn't based around intimidation.

The best you're going to get here, is that the US — like powerful nations generally — has problems sticking to the rules it otherwise sets itself. Too many temptations to chuck the principles over board for short-sighted expediency.

However, if the idea is that it's a good idea for Russia to emulate the US when it behaves in an unprincipled and aggressive way, a bit of reality check is probably in order, including a realistic look at how this kind of behaviour might have benefited the US — or not? Good prospects, are they?

^Maybe there is some degree of a parallel with Texas and the resulting US-Mexican war (although again in a different time, and with different results). Crimea is heavily Russian already and has been for a couple of centuries. I also doubt that Russia would actively seek to join more areas to itself. They already have a vast country, despite Siberia not being comparable to Crimea or other densely populated and urban-centered territories.

Kyriakos said:

^Maybe there is some degree of a parallel with Texas and the resulting US-Mexican war (although again in a different time, and with different results). Crimea is heavily Russian already and has been for a couple of centuries. I also doubt that Russia would actively seek to join more areas to itself. They already have a vast country, despite Siberia not being comparable to Crimea or other densely populated and urban-centered territories.

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Well, it's not what Putin is really saying, is it?

We used to think, when he waxed eloquent about the disaster of the rupture of the former Soviet Union, that it was just so much nostalgia, but no call to action.

Now it has turned out it was a call to action. We are now debating if there's a principle or a program involved, or "just an exception". Like the US makes exceptions when sticking to the UN system feels to onerous...

And Putin isn't telling. Even if he would come out clearly state that Crimea was a complete exception, and Russian will never ever contemplate something similar again — should he be believed? But he isn't stating anything of that sort. And in the mean time we still have the programmatic statements about how everything once Soviet just maybe should return — with ideological sidelines going even further.

The situation is not set up for transparency and clarity, where certain options and contigencies can be safely discounted. And that's also clearly as per Putin's likes with reagards to Russia. We get it wrong, and he takes advantage, then we're stupid, and deserve it for not taking Russia seriously. We entertain these possibilities, and plan accordingly, we're russophobic and aggressive, and silly for taking Russia seriously.

We have a choice between "stupid" and "silly". "Silly" requires a bit more planning and exertion. "Stupid" is in the short-run much more convenient, but can return and bite us on the ass. Hypothetically there might be a "just right" balance in between, where nothing untowards ends up happning. But what that might be, no one knows — worse, that happy medium might not even exist.

We still have to respond to the challenge.

...talking-heads expect Israel to join Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Turkey etc. and launch a military intervention in Ukraine on behalf of the USA and EU...
- while such characters are countered by other idiots that demand Obama to ask China to launch a military intervention in Syria...

Yet, believe it or not: these are just a few of most serious proposals one can hear making circles in _the_ circles in DC and Brüssels.

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is a post just read over some strategy site ...

r16 said:

is a post just read over some strategy site ...

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Clearly there are idiots everywhere. What's supposedly in it for Israel? Or even more so Turkey or the Saudis? It's not as if the US has the power to just order them. Which indicates the alleged anonymous talking heads are simply idiots. Taxi drivers in Brussels maybe?

I add here an editable map of Ukraine's regions with their respective populations. Any edits resulting from it should be directed to the Altered Maps thread

between you and that site has been almost instrumental in making some Syrian officers believe the Mighty West and its puppet aka the Turkish Army would simply walk over the border and invade after some two weeks of bloodshed .

for the idiots in question , am pretty sure they are very respectable people in think tanks . There is , unfortunately for the reputation of Mankind in the 21st Century , an intention to contract out the WW III ; in a spectacular dog eat dog . And of course for any idiot in the Middle East , the participation of Israel in any endavour is a sure sign of success . Just like , we have been like supporting the El Kaide , in the belief that Israel had approved "toppling of Damascus by any means necessary" and it wouldn't bite us .

idiots ? No, they are so smart that their level of idiocy is only possible through decades of hard work in the finest schools .

crosspost , was supposed to follow the one of Verbose .

^Odesa has a horrible choke point due to SSR Moldavia

Winner said:

I add here an editable map of Ukraine's regions with their respective populations. Any edits resulting from it should be directed to the Altered Maps thread

http://forums.civfanatics.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=373896&stc=1&d=1398076788

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And before WW2 borders in this region looked like this (posting this for comparison):



And Moldova was also part of Romania before WW2 (with the exception of Transnistria, which was part of the Ukrainian Soviet Republic before WW2).

Bulgaria declares war on Chicago, USA, due to the newly found WMDs there.

Prepare for total war, my dear obese friends. For totaaal war.

Tolni said:

Bulgaria declares war on Chicago, USA, due to the newly found WMDs there.

Prepare for total war, my dear obese friends. For totaaal war.

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Easy there! Dont you know the standard procedure before you can declare war? First you have to say 100x: "They have got them!" Only then your lie becomes true and you have free hands. Just be careful since Chicago has a lot of Polish citizenry and since Poland doesnt need viza to Bulgaria or its colonies you better treat the people in your new conquest damn well....

If Paradox ever gets around to making a Grand Strategy placed in the Cold War period onwards, I'd love if they have an WMD Casus Belli.

Tolni said:

If Paradox ever gets around to making a Grand Strategy placed in the Cold War period onwards, I'd love if they have an WMD Casus Belli.

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I would love to play as Bulgaria and vasalise both Muscovy and USA in that scenario!

Kyriakos said:

Imagine what a person 'after WW2' would think of the current EU

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I think he would be extremely impressed with our track record of having avoided another war for nearly 70 years.

I have had a good laugh with this:

The Russian government knows that Washington does not believe what Washington is saying and that Washington is systematically provoking a continuation and worsening of the problem. The Russian government wonders what agenda Washington is pursuing. Is Washington in its arrogant stupidity and superpower hubris unable to acknowledge that its takeover of the Ukraine has come amiss and to back off? Does Washington not realize that the Russian government is no more able to accept the application of violence against Russian populations in Ukraine than it could accept violence against Russians in South Ossetia? If Washington doesn’t come to its senses, the Russian government will have to send in troops as it had to do in Georgia.

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Here is another interesting read from Neil Clark:http://rt.com/op-edge/west-leaders-ukraine-democracy-600/
and some quotes:

Why was the occupation of government buildings in Ukraine a very good thing in January, but it is a very bad thing in April? Why was the use of force by the authorities against protestors completely unacceptable in January, but acceptable now? I repeat: I'm confused. Can anyone help me?

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A few weeks ago I saw an interview with the US Secretary of State John Kerry who said, “You just don't invade another country on phony pretexts in order to assert your interests.” But I seem to recall the US doing just that on more than one occasion in the past 20 years or so.

Have I misremembered the 'Iraq has WMDs claim'? Was I dreaming back in 2002 and early 2003 when politicians and neocon pundits came on TV every day to tell us plebs that we had to go to war with Iraq because of the threat posed by Saddam's deadly arsenal? Why is having a democratic vote in Crimea on whether to rejoin Russia deemed worse than the brutal, murderous invasion of Iraq – an invasion which has led to the deaths of up to 1 million people? I'm confused. Can anyone help me?

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We were also told by very serious-looking Western politicians and media 'experts' that the Crimea referendum wasn't valid because it was held under “military occupation.” But I've just been watching coverage of elections in Afghanistan, held under military occupation, which have been hailed by leading western figures, such as NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen as a “historic moment for Afghanistan” and a great success for “democracy.” Why is the Crimean vote dismissed, but the Afghanistan vote celebrated? I'm confused. Can anyone help me?

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Apparently to some "democrats" democracy is just a kind of slut to do with whatever they whant...

If I had a dollar for every time "tu quoque" was invoked in these threads...

Mechanicalsalvation said:

If I had a euro for every off-topic mumble....

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So that's why it keep getting invoked.

If I had a euro for every off-topic mumble....

SS-18 ICBM said:

So that's why.

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Careful mr. Future Oligarch you are getting wishfully rich there...

Everyone who doesn't agree with your opinion = Future Oligarch

Thanks, CFC, for preparing me for a career in politics in a post-Soviet country. I doubt I'd succeed without your help.