Your post is really contradictory and confusing... so I'm gonna break it down Barney style and show you how exactly you aren't making any sense.
but it's not going to be 50%. it's probably like 75%. you're being scummy saying that. taking a random name is more likely to get a townie than mafia. you know that!
No, you're doing the math wrong. Each player, isolated to themselves with a clean slate, has 50% chance of being beneficial to town and 50% being hazardous to town. In the grand scheme of all players involved in the game, a random player is more likely to be town than scum... I admit that. But since these players are being looked at on an individual basis you aren't grabbing one player out of a pool of 33... you are grabbing one out of one... As I said, with all the information we have about TLD or Jarrema, they each have a 50/50 chance of being scum.
In otherwords, if I had 33 boxes and I told you that 4 of those boxes had a ball in it, you would have a 1 in 8.25 chance of selecting a box with a ball in it. However, if you were only presented with one box, there would be a 50/50 chance that the box would have a ball in it.
now, since there is even a release people from jail function, people had to begin in there otherwise we would send everybody to jail and never release anyone that didn't come up as pure town; there'd be no reason to hospitalize anyone ever, in most cases. Jail would be by far the optimal strategy.
But because people did start of in jail, it's not the optimal strategy to send people there? Instead we should send everyone to the Hospital?
but with 3 people beginning in jail we could be missing out on some more important people; and it's not necessarily entirely terrible for the players, as they may have a way out (at least 1 did).
since bsmith made no mention of this when he was in jail (i.e. "release other people, I'm going to get free day 3!") it leads me to believe either only bsmith had it or its dependent on something else. Or there is just a chance someone gets out of jail due to the police being incompetent and overcrowding.
So you think BSmith has some sort of way of escaping from jail. Okay... but you also think only he had it? Is it not possible that his release was the effect of an item? And since people in jail have no items, that would mean that someone not in jail used the item to free him? Or do you know something that I do not?
anyways, tl;dr don't release BigTin. A double voter isn't going to help us at all, while maybe one of the other two will. We need to release somebody today, and I don't care if it is just snake or something-- we don't want to waste a day again.
You lost me on the snake thing....
The goal is to have people made verifiable claims. BigTin was a waste of time yesterday since we already had his verifiable claim out in public, and now we have to go through the same process with visorslash. That is, assuming people have abilities or items or something this game, which I think people may have in limited sets.
So you know what; []unvote landlubber; hospitalize paulwhoisaghost[/]
So wait... you suggest that visorslash has a verifiable claim on the table... but he doesn't he falsely counterclaimed BigTin. But lets say that he did... wouldn't the way to verify his claim be to jail him and get his info? But instead you want to hospitalize me.... Which begs the question of why you are trying to send me straight to the hospital after stressing the importance of using the jail to verify people's claims or identify their alignments?
