Gliese's Deity Game #2, Zara Yaqob

I've been agonizing on which way to take this. If you all had agreed on a course it might have been easier. :)
As it is I was first thinking of continuing the war, then I leaned the other way when I learned that Paris would be safe if I took Nappy's capitulation. That didn't stop the fact that Rusten and Dirk spoke against it however and you need to have a pretty strong argument if you're going to disagree with them.
So I dug up an old post by VoU and did some calculations.

http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?t=206578&highlight=wfyabta

This excellent thread highlighted some issues I had forgotten. Namely the fact that either you or the trade partner has to be in the upper half of the scoreboard in order for WFYABTA to have an effect. Also it refreshed my memory on the basic probability of an AI forgetting a tech trade, which is 5% for each turn.

I then counted the number of tech trades that the AIs in my game has seen me do. For my own continent it is the staggering amount of 30 techs, for the other continent it's 16 of those.
My first continent has had 99 turns since tech trade number 1 which gives an approximate average of forgetting 5 of those trades which would land me at 25. The other continent has had 52 turns which averages 2-3 techs landing them at 13-14.

Now the number of tech trades allowed before WFYABTA for each leader in my game according to XML is:

HC: 5
Nappy: 10
Joao: 15

SB: 5
WK: 10
Liz: 15

The scoreboard top half consists of WK, HC and Joao. I must conclude then that they've all hit WFYABTA, but Joao will still trade with me since he's friendly.
I must also conclude that SB and Nappy has hit WFYABTA but since neither of them or me are in top half of the scoreboard, we can still trade. SB however needs to be at pleased relations as well which is what is stopping him at the moment.
Liz is probably the only one not quite at WFYABTA yet but will hit it in another tech trade or two. She's also in the lower half of the scoreboard however.

I must assume that I'll surpass Joao in score and thus enter the top half of the scoreboard sometime in the near future once my french cities comes out of revolt and I work on my economy. Couple that with another tech trade or two and I will no longer be able to trade with any AIs that are not friendly toward me.

Since the attitude for tech trades is dependant on the average attitude vs you and vassals, I'm at great risk of not having any trade partner at all for the rest of the game if I vassalize Nappy.

Having realized that I have to say that being able to trade is much more important if I'm to catch up to HC, than being certain of getting a good output from Paris and some resources+gold.

Also, on examining my choice in going for Medicine, I agree with you Dirk that it's risky. Too risky in fact I think as 8 turns is at 100% with massive deficit and so it would probably be say 11 turns or something. By which point it might prove to be a total waste of time.
I'll thus put research on something else and finish the war and see if Joao vassalizes Nappy (then I can trade with Nappy before hitting top half of scoreboard). Otherwise it's definitely physics next for me.
 
Nice analysis, Gliese, thanks for letting us into your thought processes.

Playing at a lower level then you I don't hit WFYABTA but I suspect I will soon :). Being opposed to vassalising the AI in general, I feel the decision to continue against Nappy is interesting as I was leaning towards that position before I read your last post. Are you hoping that Nappy becomes a vassal of Joao or that you get chance to wipe him out completely? I can see advantages of both.

I also find it interesting that you have only been trading techs for 99 turns. It shows how fast the game goes at Deity :)

Good luck for the next set of turns.
 
AndrewN: It would probably be better if Nappy's wiped out even though I'd lose out on 2 possible tech trades with him. I would gain 2 and a half cities though (Paris, Tours and a small city to claim the unworked fish as Rusten suggested). Well Paris is mine in any case but with french culture intact it would be a pretty bad city. I'd get some gold from taking Tours as well.

The thing is also, those tech trades would only help me if I can then trade with Liz before entering the top half of the score, which is dependant on getting a tradeable tech before then as she's likely to hit WFYABTA with the next 1 or 2 trades. There's also the question of demerits from trading as Nappy is the worst enemy of SB and Liz (Joao too but not if he becomes Nappy's master).
 
Can you bribe Joao into peace with Nappy? That would give you the time to conquer the remaining two cities. If it's not possible, and you don't want to risk a WFYABTA by vassalizing him, you can only hope Joao doesn't accept a capitulation and move on the southern city. If Joao takes Orleans before accepting a capitulation you're golden anyway; Paris will control the corn, iron and stone if you pump culture in fast.
What I understand of cultural control, it's not the amount of culture in the city but the number of turns you excert cultural presence on a tile that decides ownership, if you manage to pop Paris to the first level before Jaoa does, it should be your tile until he goes to the 2nd borderpop at least. And if you get there first again, he stand little chance of regaining it.
In that case, the focus should be on maintaining order in Paris and formenting disorder in Joao controlled Orleans so his culture doesn't develop. So station plenty of troop and use some EP on Orleans. If successful, that would leave Paris with 13 tiles, if you don't get any from Tours, with 13 tiles, corn, stone and iron, Paris would still be a great city.
 
JammerUno: Unfortunately no I have nothing to bribe him with or I would have done so even earlier. Paris culture is not a problem if Joao takes Orleans true. Culture is generated not only in a city but also in the surrounding tiles, it's 1 culture per turn in outermost ring, 20 in the ring inside that, then 40 etc. To this value is then added the total number for any city that has that tile within its "personal border". Since Paris was founded in 4000 BC and the other cities also thousands of years ago, Nappy's had alot of time to dump culture in this area. Battling Joao however should be no problem as I have a headstart being creative.
 
... just be carefull that Joao doesn't figure out that you can act as a new training tool for his troops :)
 
Sian: That's not a problem regardless since he's safe at pleased or above. :) HC and WK are the potential threats, I discovered WK is WHEOOHRN on the last turn of the last round.
 
@Gliese, i recommended continuing the war before DanF's post made me realized the possible vassilization problem that existed. I'm just not sure now. It would be bad if Nap vassalized to Joao minimizing the gains from the war.

But for what it's worth i think i'd continue war. If Nap vassalizes to Joao i'd still follow the plan to military techs but i'd mix it with a troop build up to take out Joao/Nap somewhere in the infantry/artillery stage. These troops probably have to be build anyway so taking extra land should be good. And once you have all that land surely there must be a way to take on HC. Problem is of course that Joao isn't really weak and the war'll have to be fought at tech parity.

You have one thing going for you, according to the guide Joao's attack courage is normal (meaning low). I don't know how that translates in the ai code exactly but in my experience these civs don't attack large stacks very often so you can just slaughter them while they cower in their cities. Joao'll have a good stack left from the previous war, be sure to know where it is before taking him on.

If you vassalize Nap now there are some more war gains but it's not overwhelming either. If you're bent on Internet/space race i think you should vassalize but i think chances of pulling this off are small. Even if you get internet it remains to be seen how useful it is. While i don't think your position in this game is hopeless (it is difficult for sure) this decision is tough.

Whatever you do this is going to be a long game. Interesting article about the wfyabta btw. I've read it some time ago but i had forgotten about upper/lower half.
 
I think my best bet is domination at this point since it appears HC is 2 techs away from Internet while I need 11 techs. I should probably hit SB next then as he hasn't got rifling or steel yet and so should be an easy target. It remains to see what happens over the last turns of the Napoleon war however, I need to keep an eye on WK's plans as well since he's WHEOOHRN.
If I go for an all out war effort I should probably adopt State Property but I think I need Emancipation as well for the economy. I would really really like the Spiritual trait right now as switching back and forth would be the best bet, particularly since Slavery would be awesome for the captured french cities when they come out of revolt.

What is everyone's experience of drafting infantry? I've never done it myself but it seems you get 70 hammers for 1 pop this way instead of 110 as for rifles since it requires 2pops. Perhaps it would be better if I continued my riflemen drafting and then upgraded them all to infantry? The alternative is of course to grow Libyan as large as possible to get a headstart on infantry drafting or to switch out of Nationhood altogether in favour of Bureacracy/Free Speech.
 
Yeah it should be a domination win and my guess is you'll have to take down HC's capital at least once. This means you can't totally fall behind in science, you'll have to have some modern stuff when he launches unless you think domination's possible before he launches. If you go on drafting i'd do it now, costs you more maintenance and you'll have to upgrade but in the end it delivers twice as much units. After AL i think you should be be in US,FS,EM,SP,THC. Nationhood'll cost you too much on research/gold though this civic definitely has some advantages too.

If you take out SB you'll have to take out Liz too, otherwise all the conquered land'll be hopeless.
 
You do remember the insane 20% boost you get towards the WFYBTA thresholds for playing a Deity game? (the actual thresholds move to 6|12|18 --> 5 more trades with Lizzy should get you somewhere).

Also SB trades techs @ Cautious.

You could consider staying among the underdogs by gifting some cities back to your vassals.
 
Dan: I didn't know about that, that's good to know. That's 4-5 more trades with Liz then. My mistake on SB, he must not be ready to trade away corp just yet.

As for gifting cities, if I can keep Joao at friendly I have him to trade with besides Liz. If I'm lucky I'll get Corps from SB as well (or get Corps+Physics from Nappy if Joao vassalizes him).
 
Gliese 581, I don't know if your aware or not, but war allies can be treated like vassals, you can 'request' that they attack a particular city. By talking to joao, and talking about something else, request that he attacks Tours, he'll say "we'll do our best", IF and if he attacks tours, then request Orleans. You don't have enough spy points to take out culture, and rifles are only a 30% odds.

Joao, is Napoleons worst enemy, does this affect Capitulation??

Sit rep screen F5, show's a strategic advantage over WK of Frigates, Galleons and Privateers??? and he has air ships. If its correct, he'll be going after Sitting bull

Napoleon has Joao as worst enemy, and how many turns has it been since war started, enough for them to talk??
 
My mistake on SB, he must not be ready to trade away corp just yet.

corp is traded only at friendly

also, remember that your friendly with joao is because of hr, in which he won't stay much longer(not that I changed my mind - I still wouldn't vassal nappy - just negative diplo for not too much).

and I don't see how wk could be on anyone else but hc. Different warmonger, founders of diff. religion...
 
IPEX: Would giving Joao that request prevent him from vassalizing Nappy somehow?

Snowlywhite: :confused: Are there special rules for The Corporation?

Joao is at +14 right now, with +4 from favourite civic, how much do I need from him on deity for friendly?
Trade relations are only at +1 so I might be able to raise that after he leaves HR.

In any case it's all done in regards to the war. I've played exactly one more turn during which Nappy capitulated to Joao. :mad:
I still think it's better that this happened than him capitulating to me and ending all tech trading on my part from SB and Joao.

I believe WK is after either HC or SB, hopefully HC.
 
^That's right. Corporation has a huge MonopolyValue because it enables 7 World Wonders (the Corp Headquarters) + a National Wonder (Wall Street). Without any Corporations founded and everybody else already knowing it, you can only get it from Pericles, Peter & Willem (or Mansa or any friendly player).

In any case it's all done in regards to the war. I've played exactly one more turn during which Nappy capitulated to Joao.

:), I mean :mad:! ;)
 
Round 7, 1400 AD - 1575 AD (25 turns).

Another relatively short round, this game is not looking easy.

1400: As discussed previously I felt that I would rather ensure future tech trading by prolonging the war against Nappy, even if it meant he would become the vassal of Joao. This is exactly what happened on the following turn. Before ending the turn I switched all EPs to HC and put research slider to 0% to gain some extra time before comitting.

1410: The capitulation to Joao is signed. SB gets a shiny new tech and we do a trade.

ZY2010000.jpg


Yes very fair SB, you leech.

1420: After whipping a settler I revolt to Emancipation. I start to research Artillery as some trade partners lack it and I will need it myself in my future wars.

1430: WK is no longer WHEOOHRN. I check his comment about attacking HC and he states that he would have nothing to gain. Well I guess HC was not his intended target.

1440: Nappy gets communism and I rejoice as Liz hasn't got it yet according to the tech screen. A trade is done.

ZY2040000.jpg


He had part of Rifling already but once again I'm ripped off. I guess you have no choice about that at deity most of the time if you need to trade.
I switch to Steam Power to try to trade Communism for it with Liz.

1450: 3GD BIDL (HC). Rock & Roll BIDL (HC).

1460: WK asks me for embargo against HC and I refuse, putting him at annoyed though as it turns out only temporarilly.

1470: The settler I whipped earlier arrives and is placed to use 6 tiles other cities can't reach and more importantly, prevent Nappy from cutting Paris off and helping with culture pressure against nearby tiles.

ZY2070000.jpg


I do the trade with Liz.

ZY2070001.jpg


I then put research on The Corporation but pauses it with around 50 beakers left which it takes my GP farm specialists 3 turns to complete while I hoard the gold in anticipation of deficit researching Assembly Line after losing another trade route when Corp replaces GLH.

1480: I feel ready to adopt State Property, Free Speech and Universal Suffrage but first I do some calculations. SP costs me one trade route per city which I calculate will cost me 57 gold per turn at 100% gold from slider.
The savings outweigh this considerably however, mostly because HC has been spamming Sid's Sushi in all my cities.

ZY2080000.jpg


Corporation costs and distance upkeep for my cities multiplied by the inflation costs me 145 gold per turn. The corporation gives me 3 food per city (9 cities for total of 27). I have just slightly less workshops/watermills so food loss is insignificant, then there's the 10% production multiplier on top. All in all a no-brainer as it turns out.
The other decision is whether to keep HR for some time yet to keep Joao at friendly for possible trades. I decide to switch all 3 at once to save a turn of anarchy and for the extra production as happiness is not a factor either now.

Perhaps I should have taken Nappy as a vassal after all, I wouldn't be able to trade with SB then but Nappy's had the same techs as he available and Liz don't mind. As it turns out I never got the chance to trade more with Joao anyhow before switching out of HR and thus debuffing him to pleased where his WFYABTA immediately kicked in.

1490: Cristo Redentor BIDL (HC).
Apollo Program BIDL (Liz).

1500: Creative Constructions FIDL (HC).
Joao is WHEOOHRN. WK is WHEOOHRN. Interesting, WK is afraid of HC so probably SB as target. Joao can only attack someone at the other continent due to diplo.

1505: Eiffel Tower BIDL (HC).
Muslim Shrine BIDL (Liz).

1510: I experience a revolt by the portugese border and move most of my SOD to the city.

ZY2120000.jpg


1525: Apollo Program BIDL (HC).

1530: Corporation -> AL

1535: A GE is born in Lalibela which it was my goal to get a shot at since some time back before we decided that a domination victory would be the only possible scenario, in case I would run free market I could've used him for Mining Inc. I save him in the capital. I could still found Mining Inc to prevent others from getting it but it seems better to save him for a second GA. What do you think?

1540: Cereal Mills FIDL (HC). Compete with your own corp? Nice. I guess it stops others from getting it.

1545: WK dows SB but is forced to make peace with him the very same turn due to an event.

1565: AL -> Railroad to trade.

Joao dows WK!

1570: I also put some research on Electricity since both Liz and Nappy lacked AL, I hoped to trade with both. Nappy acquires AL before that however so I'm left with the one trade.

ZY2240002.jpg


Docking Bay BIDL (HC).
The Internet BIDL (HC).

1575: After missing out on the Electricity trade with Nappy I decide to pause and assess my chances.
HC has a huge techlead, he already has Laser and Robotics giving him Mobile SAMs, Mobile Artillery and Mech Infs. He is one tech away from Composites and Modern Armor. With the internet in his hands it's a double challenge to get any kind of special technology advantage on him down the line.
Joao is also ahead of me with tanks, destroyers, artillery and sam infantry (not to mention an upgraded army).
There was a small window of attack against SB as I initially planned however I lacked sufficient transportation and after getting half a dozen galleons ready he had already aquired rifling. I decided I'd rather keep my army on the home front than fight a difficult overseas war at tech parity against a protective AI.

State of the world:

Army. Needs to be doubled and upgraded probably. My fleet is of course a joke.

ZY2250002.jpg


Demographics.

ZY2250003.jpg


Relations. Getting harder to avoid stepping on anyone's toes. I have some pretty important resource trades with WK, but no open borders of course. I can afford to piss of Joao a little though since he's at +10. Unless my aim is to get him back to friendly somehow.

ZY2250004.jpg


And techs.

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As I see it I have three tech choices right now, I have some research in all of them already.

Electricity 1852/7605 around 5750 b left.
Medicine 1147/7605 around 6550 b left.
Artillery 1769/6760 around 5000 b left.

Medicine is only held by WK and HC still so I if I could get it before this changes I could trade it for both artillery and electricity with Nappy and Liz.

Electricity is needed for Industrialism and tanks (and marines).

Artillery is needed to upgrade my cannons to something more effective.
I guess the question is, how soon do I attack Joao? Do I get artillery only and rely on massive siege to take him down with some antitanks on railroads for home defense vs tanks or do I get tanks myself?
Is medicine worth the risk to get it + artillery + electricity in the same timeframe? (7-8 turns needed).
One bit of good news is that I'm outspying HC quite severely at the moment and already have more EPs on him than he on me. I'll need to grasp every little straw I can if I'm to prevent him from going to space.
I recently lost a lot of old spies I had lurking about but my scouting tells me that Joao has sent away about half of his fleet though he hasn't sent an invasion stack from what I can tell, at least not any significant forces. Worst case scenario is him just building lots of troops but never sending an invasion or get invaded by WK, leaving me to face the stiffened resistance.

HC has 3 SODS spread over his empire but the largest is in his capital. He recently sent a small stack to our border, don't know what that's about. No WHEOOHRN in any case.
Right now I'm putting up half-price factories in all cities with reasonable production but after that I'll be ready for a massive mobilization. I'll also need gold to upgrade my rifles and cannons though.

I'm really really bad at modern wars since my games almost never lasts this long before I call it a win/loss and quit, aside from the occassional tank mop-up in particularly entertaining games, so I could use some advice on how I should plan this.
 

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