Daring plan to Victory

Gorina has 2 turns left building the ToE. Industrialization will get in in 1 turn.

My plan is to snitch the Universal Suffrage from then World by building it in Gorina immediately after ToE finishes. The US gives us 4 culture per turn, besides it's War Weariness killing ability. Those 4 cpt might get us a 20k Cultural victory in Gorina, wouldn't that be a nice ending to the game ?

It has a production of 33 spt (2 corrupt). US costs 800 shields, so we can get it 800/31 = 25,8 ~ 26 turns. Gorina has 4 hilled mines which can be made more productive with Railroads Gorina will make 37 spt (35 uncorrupted). 800 / 35 = 22,8. Even if we build in Gorina for 5 turns with only 31 spt and then in 35 spt we get it in 24 turns, but 23 turns is possible if we focus. We have 4 turns ( 2 of ToE and 2 in US) to get Gorina upto 35 uncorrupted spt to get US.

There are currently 3 other cities building US; Frankfurt, Ur and Persepolis.

* Frankfurt is on the coast, with 6 tiles who produce shields. even if they scrape 15 uncorrupted spt ( clicked all tiles to see what spt they give) they have to build for at least 50 turns to get it.
* Ur; when it uses all 21 tiles it gets around 20 spt so 40 turns
* Persepolis has around 23 spt and the potential to increase that amount because of growth (it has 2 tiles which can produce more than 2 food; an irrigated flood plain and an irrigated plains and some irrigated railroaded deserts for 2 food), but if they are going to grow, that means that is now reducing their spt to around 20 spt. It will get a max of 25/26 spt.

Depending on how long ago they started (the chatlog isn't mentioning it; they were building it in 1450 AD; turn 5 in last turnchat.). They'll have a head start of at least 5 + 2 (till ToE finishes) * 23 = 7 * 23 = 161 shields when we start. Assuming they get their 35 spt then and assuming we have Gorina 2 turns on 33 spt and the rest on 35 spt. Persepolis is ready in (800-161) / 25 = 639 / 25 = 25,56 turns = 26 turns after we start.
We are ready in 2+ ((800 - 2*33) / 35) = 2+ (734/35) = 2 + 20,9 = 23 turns.

Addition, according to CivGeneral they started around turn 3. That would reduce their time by 2 and gets it for them 26-2 = 24 turns after we start; we get it in 23. The waste = 400 shields for the Persians...

If we withhold trading Atomic Theory and Electronics than the only wonder they can spend that on is CIA; a wonder only worth 400 shields, thus they waste a massive 350 shields.

If we are unlucky and due to a Leader, extra citizens by joining workers or other eventualities we miss US, we an easily switch to Hoover (Gorina is on a river) and we haven't lost a thing.

I need just 2 things to be completely sure we'll pull this of and neither is impossible.
1 - Get workers to railroad the hills of Gorina very very fast (4 - 5 turns max).
2a - Ask the DP for an (autosave) to know exactly when the Persians started their US.
2b - If 2a is impossible, an investigation of Persepolis to know how many turns it'll take for them to finish it.

If we put our shoulders under it, we can get Universal Suffrage.

I hear you ask where to build Hoover then? The options are:
1 - Tyvek, currently at 27 - 7 corrupt = 20 spt, but with some tile arrangements 30 - 7 corrupt = 23 spt. Tyvek has 6 tiles which can be railroaded for higher spt.
2 - Gorina after the US (gives us security we don't loose shields if we do loose the US to a leader or something)
3 - Memphis (needs railroads and mines) can get up to 22/23 uncorrupted shields.

A long plea, and a daring proposition, but what a stunt it would be to pull off.

And don't forget: Vote for Rik Meleet for President.

Rik

A bold and daring plan indeed Rik
I hope it receives the considered support of the people.

Rik - The Files have been sent to you.

Rik, I think discussion generally declared "Tyvek" as the location for Hoover. Only question i ask, is if we have to switch to Hoover from US what will become of Tyvek's build?

It can switch to a palace (1000 shields required). If on a 23 spt (which can be scaled down) we have nearly 50 turns to get to Fission for the UN (1000 shields) or Computers for SETI (also 1000 shields).

It is a magnificent prebuild for the UN, giving us control of the vote and eliminating an undesirable Diplomatic loss or enabling a desirable Diplomatic win (if requiered).

The more I think about it the more I like it; it can give us 2 extra victory types and at the same time throw some civs back by causing them to waste a lot of shields.

I do think an investigation of Persepolis is absolutely essential; perhaps several investigations.

Originally posted by Rik Meleet


I do think an investigation of Persepolis is absolutely essential; perhaps several investigations.

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Would you like an immediate investigation of Persepolis or any other city? If so, I will post a poll.

BTW, this plan looks great to me I would prefer winning by spaceship but a culture victory is not undesireable to me.

Originally posted by CivGeneral
Rik - The Files have been sent to you.

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Thanks CivGeneral.

Unfortunately these are the saves 1455-1460-1465-1470 and 1475, so they teach me nothing new. We already know they had started US in 1450. It seems we have to do an investigation in order to know how long they need to build the US and if we can snitch it from under their noses.

Originally posted by Bootstoots
Would you like an immediate investigation of Persepolis or any other city? If so, I will post a poll.

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Yes, please do an investigation of Persepolis ASAP; that is essential for this plan. I think one every 10 years might be needed, even. The other cities are not neccesary yet, but we have to keep an eye on them; if they grow beyond size 12 we have to watch out.

I support this plan wholeheartedly. US isn't the war-wearieness killer it's advertized as, at least not in PTW 1.27, but that probably doesn't matter if we remain peaceful. In my latest game I had US and was at war in the industrial age, cavalry vs infantry so slow going, and got a spontaneous anarchy!

All of the fallback plans sound good.

Originally posted by Falcon02
Rik, I think discussion generally declared "Tyvek" as the location for Hoover. Only question i ask, is if we have to switch to Hoover from US what will become of Tyvek's build?

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This is a very risky move, and one that could keep Hoover's Dam from us if we succeed. Keep in mind that there is a slight chance that Persia could have Electronics by then(depending on their research ability) and Persepolis would immediately cascade to Hoover's should we acquire US.

As Hoover Dam is the wonder we really want, I don't see the need in risking it. However, there are quite a few turns before this whole scenario pans out. Let's stay the course for now, and take a real close look at our options.

Rik: if we want to start a second build in Tyvek, are you sure we can get to Fission or Computers within 50 turns? That seems a bit optimistic to me. Please explain how this is possible, and I may lend my full support to this plan.

DZ,

I think you're right to be concerned about getting Fission/Computers within 50 turns or so. My best guestimate is about 60 turns, given current research rates. Big SWAG there.

I'd actually like to try for BOTH wonders, with the goal of completing them on the same turn. Risky - somewhat. But doable.

To make a dual build work, we'll need to concentrate on Tyvek. Gorina is a very capable city right now, and can outbuild anything. The weak link here is Tyvek - it's production needs to be boosted to make this work.

Actually, this brings an interesting option to mind. The other countries will be putting their top cities to producing US. We're actually going to be starting both US and the Dam. We start US in Tyvek, and the Dam in Gorina.

With some work, Tyvek should be able to outbuild the AI cities and get US. So we have a cascade danger there, right?

Wrong. Gorina will be building the Dam. With a production of 31, Gorina can build it in 26 turns. The AI will probably get AT and E in 10-15 turns, and start a city on the Dam at that point. Even assuming they flip the Dam site to US (which they can't, because they almost certainly will be already building it elsewhere), Tyvek will have enough of a headstart to complete US.

Tada! We get the Dam, then US, sweeping the wonders of the Industrial Age!

As a suggested modification to my plan, we queue up a courthouse in Tyvek once the bank completes. A courthouse will take 4 turns. Right now, Tyvek will take 40 turns to complete US. If the courthouse reduces corruption by 3 (about half), we cut the time by 5 turns, a net reduction of 1 turn. As we develop Tyvek, the reduced corruption from the courthouse will be even larger.

Summary:
Turn 1
Tyvek completes Bank, starts Courthouse
Turn 2
Gorina completes ToE, starts Dam
Turn 5
Tyvek completes Courthouse, starts US
Turn 20-something
Gorina completes Dam, AI cities curse as they lose lots of production
Turn 30-something
Tyvek completes US, AI cities curse mightly as they again lose lots of production.

Comments?
-- Ravensfire

Originally posted by Donovan Zoi

This is a very risky move, and one that could keep Hoover's Dam from us if we succeed. Keep in mind that there is a slight chance that Persia could have Electronics by then(depending on their research ability) and Persepolis would immediately cascade to Hoover's should we acquire US.

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That is true, but not realistic. The Persians are up Nationalism and Industrialization on us, we are up Sci.Meth and in 2 turns also Atomic and Hoover. We should never trade those 3 techs around before our builds are secure or even finished. If we get US before anyone else has Electronics, and that is realistic as they are expensive to research, (Sci Meth value = 100, Atomic Theory Value = 200, Electronics value = 180, compare to Esp = 90, Sanit = 90, comm =120, rep parts = 140), kills the cascade forever; no more Wonders for them and all for us. The first to come in is Hoover. I think they'll never catch up in time IF we don't help them by trading these techs.
(non-politically: [/b]The US means everyting to us !! [/b])

Originally posted by Donovan Zoi

Rik: if we want to start a second build in Tyvek, are you sure we can get to Fission or Computers within 50 turns? That seems a bit optimistic to me. Please explain how this is possible, and I may lend my full support to this plan.

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This only is important if the Persians do get Electronics in time (see above). I give that less than 3% chance.
We need 13 techs to get the UN. We get Indus in 1, Atom + Elec in 2. so 10 techs in 48 turns. That is a lot and perhaps out of our league, even considered that we are railroading our tiles, thus giving them extra commerce each tile. Since Indus comes in in 1 turn I have no real view in how many turns we can research the next techs (The corporation).
There are 2 escape hatches for this.
1 - Switch Gorina to Hoover and Tyvek to something else if Gorina will build US in 1, but Persia has Electronics. Tyvek has accumulated around 450 shields by then. Trading for Nationalism + Espionage allows us to build the CIA at a loss of 50 shields. We take Hoover and CIA and forget about the US.
2 - Micromanage Tyvek to produce food instead of shields. It has a mined railroaded Coal hill producing 6 spt and 2 roaded mined hills next to it producing 4 spt (4 with railroads) by adjusting tiles it is easy to get it down to 13 uncorrupted spt, buying us more time to research. And in my experience the AI goes for the top part of the research-chain. We go for Radio and do a 3 fer 1 with that. We can trade for their techs and affectively let them help us researching. Babs = scientific, Germany = scientific, Persia = scientific, Greece = scientific, Russia = scientific. We have 5 scientific neighbours to help us.

Originally posted by ravensfire
Summary:
Turn 1
Tyvek completes Bank, starts Courthouse
Turn 2
Gorina completes ToE, starts Dam
Turn 5
Tyvek completes Courthouse, starts US
Turn 20-something
Gorina completes Dam, AI cities curse as they lose lots of production
Turn 30-something
Tyvek completes US, AI cities curse mightly as they again lose lots of production.

Comments?
-- Ravensfire

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Yes I absolutely have comments. You are giving the US away. Granted their Hoover-Dam cities might not all have the capability to switch, but some might. But the far weaker point in your fairy-tale is the 30-something bit. The US is already finished by then in Persepolis. At least, if it isn't by then my plan would have succeeded long ago.

If you're plan succeeds, mine will to. But my plan will succeed even in conditions when you're will fail. And if my plan fails, you're plan has already failed.

You are suggesting to line up the cities as I've designed as the escape-hatch. But you forget why and in what conditions my escape hatch is needed; in case we won't get them both. And your cornerstone is to build US in Tyvek after the Hoover finishes in Gorina, thus allowing Persepolis to get US.

You're not making sense in this plan. If this is the way you are going to be our President I wouldn't vote for you.

Once we have all the wonders needed, how long would it be (in your estimation) until we get a cultural victory?

Boots: Too difficult to calculate; culture output gets doubled after 1000 years, which totally messes up any guestimations.

I'm going to do some more analysis tonight.

RM, the timeframe I've listed for Tyvek is valid for ANY wonder. Period. My proposal to build the Courthouse there prior to any wonder will save a turn or two. Right now it will take 40 turns to complete US or HD. With some tweaking, railing and the c ourthouse, the production capacity could reach close to 30, yielding an estimated completion timeframe of 27 turns.

Of the two wonders, I want HD over US, so I put Gorina on that.

I'm very, very leery about completing Hoovers in Tyvek and US in Gorina, and will strongly advocate against that. Riskest the most important wonder at this stage of the game does not make sense to me.

At this point, the investigation of Persepolis is critical to any further discussion. I hope we are able to do that this coming turn chat.

-- Ravensfire

Having just got out of the shower, there is another possibility.

I'm going to assume that Persepolis will have mid to high 20's for the number of turns left. Could be more, won't be less.

Like I said, I consider HD the most critical wonder of the Industrial Age. We MUST have it. With other civs starting US, there is a strong chance they will get to AT and E before their US build completes. I strongly prefer to have our most productive city on HD - we need that wonder.

That leaves US. To build it in 25 turns, Tyvek needs to have a production of 32, That's a significant increase from now.

Railing should increase shields by at least 5.

It also looks like we should switch the improvements on two tiles - East of Tyvek should be mined, NE of that tile should be irrigated.

In addition, the North, North-East tile is currently used by Gorina. Tyvek should grab that back. Gorina has a mined BG available for use.

Tyvek will complete a bank this turn - that is converted to a Courthouse, accepting the loss of 60 shields.

Finally, we run a food deficit in Tyvek. As needed, we merge workers into Tyvek to keep the population high.

We CAN get both wonders, but it is going to be tight, and will require a great deal of coordinated effort to do it.

Of course, if the investigation comes back and Persepolis is at 30 turns away we still have a lot of work, just not as much.

This is an example of why we need to be looking 20 turns in advance to determine what wonders we want. Had we a prebuild going for US, this would be a lot easier.

-- Ravensfire

Originally posted by ravensfire
I'm going to assume that Persepolis will have mid to high 20's for the number of turns left. Could be more, won't be less.

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Only an investigation can teach us that.

Originally posted by ravensfire
Like I said, I consider HD the most critical wonder of the Industrial Age. We MUST have it.

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No discusssion here.

Originally posted by ravensfire
With other civs starting US, there is a strong chance they will get to AT and E before their US build completes. I strongly prefer to have our most productive city on HD - we need that wonder.

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This is an unbased assumption, If we don't help other civs by never trading Sci Meth, Atom theroy and Elec. before the wonders are save they won't get it easy/ And if they do; my escape hatch is prevening the loss of Hoover Dam.[/B][/QUOTE]

Originally posted by ravensfire
That leaves US. To build it in 25 turns, Tyvek needs to have a production of 32, That's a significant increase from now.

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Gorina builds US, thus killing the cascade. Tyvek is in no hurry, unless we won't improve Gortina's tiles.

Originally posted by ravensfire
Railing should increase shields by at least 5.

It also looks like we should switch the improvements on two tiles - East of Tyvek should be mined, NE of that tile should be irrigated.

In addition, the North, North-East tile is currently used by Gorina. Tyvek should grab that back. Gorina has a mined BG available for use.

Tyvek will complete a bank this turn - that is converted to a Courthouse, accepting the loss of 60 shields.

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Why accept a loss of 60 shields when we need a bank more and your Doom-scenario can always be overcome ? [/B][/QUOTE]

Originally posted by ravensfire
We CAN get both wonders, but it is going to be tight, and will require a great deal of coordinated effort to do it.

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The best chance top get both Wonders is to get the Wonder that is currently being build by the other civs before they complete it and make sure they don't get the tech to build the most important wonder (Hoover) to cascade to. The main difference in point of view between ravensfire and me is the time the other civs get Electronics. I believe they'll get after we finish US in Gorina; ravensfire thinks they'll get it before that time. If they don't'we have both, if they do; we'll switch Gorina to Hoover's and Tyvek to palace as a pre-build of UN. In my plan everything is covered; ravensfire's plan only focusses on what if in the negative way. My plan has covered everything; ravensfire's hasn't.

Originally posted by ravensfire
Of course, if the investigation comes back and Persepolis is at 30 turns away we still have a lot of work, just not as much.

This is an example of why we need to be looking 20 turns in advance to determine what wonders we want. Had we a prebuild going for US, this would be a lot easier.

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Finally I agree with ravensfire; we do need to look far far ahead in these matters. But I believe, as my calculations have shown and the investigation hopefully confirms, that my plan (here named "positive plan") will succeed, and ravensfire's plan (from now on called "the negative plan") will show too pesimistic. Do not forget that my plan has build in itself the system that if anything goes wrong; we stil get Hoover's (ravens main concern), but if it doesn't go wrong we have both wonders without giving the AI ever a chance to get any other wonder and simultaniously allowing 20k cultural victory as well as Diplo victory. You all know I prefer Spacerace, but it wouldn't hurt to have a backup plan (UN) or an secure long-time plan (10k culture) in case some spaceship resources are unobtainable.

I get the feeing the only reason ravensfire is against this plan is because of the current presidential election. I hope not. I do believe, if it is the case, that the voters consider this kind of tactics of a candidate for the sole reason to get votes ...

Edited.

-- Ravensfire

Edit. It didn't make any sense after Ravensfire edited his.

Thanks to CG, we have a screenshot from the investigation of Persepolis.

From that, the Persians will complete US in 29 turns at their current production level. The population of Persepolis is currently 7, and will grow in 2 turns. Current shield production is 21. Some rough figures results in about 600 shields to go for Persepolis to complete US. Their next citizen could result in a gain of zero to 4 extra shields. if they do get an extra 4 shields, US will complete in 25 turns.

To reach the Modern Age, we need 12 techs, 3 of which are coming soon. In addition, we probably want to pick up Sanitation soon, so a total of 10 techs. Until we have both US and HD, we don't want to trade any techs away to countries close to us in technology.

Both Rik and I want to build both of the wonders, we have some differences in the specifics.

Regardless of the plan eventually followed, they both are similar for the next 20 turns or so. We need to determine two cities to build the wonders. I think it is a given that Gorina must be one of those cities. I would prefer Tyvek be the second, due to the higher production capacity.

We need to improve Tyvek immediately. I would like the build changed from a bank to a Courthouse, then US started. In two turns, Gorina completes ToE and starts HD. For 18 turns, we wait. On the 20th turn, we again investigate Persepolis. Based on that, we decide how to proceed. The palace is currently running 1000 shields, giving us a placeholder if we are going to lose a wonder.

In the meantime, we concentrate heavily on improving the land around Tyvek. If we want both wonders, we must improve the production capacity of that city.

Thanks!
-- Ravensfire