85% chance and no coup? AI Cheating...

I'm all for a good challenge. AI can't play? Okay, I realize it must cheat. This, however, is too much. 85% chance of coup and 4 more influence then me. Yet... I can't coup a city state allied with Greece. This is with a top-ranked Spy.

Can somebody explain to me how this is NOT cheating?

I mean, I'm number one in tech and about to win a Science victory.

But this just seems unfair.

85% =/= 100%

I had a level 3 spy killed with an 85% success rate as well. Rather annoying. But it happens. One reason I rarely try to coup.

It's like how AI cheats on me...

this is my old list:

Allies

England: I think she knows I'm born in her lands, she tends to be friendly despite her spamming RG all the dang time. I just hate how she never tires in wars... she builds up nothing and declares war on other people with a weak army. But the result is nor do the others try for some odd reason. Only time she has ever been wiped out in my games was by Greece.

India: I love how people go on in the steam reviews how they get nuked by Gandhi... yet hes been in almost all of my games without any backstabs! Some games I might get a rejected DoF near the end... but almost just fine!

Persia (no idea how you spell it): A great ally every once in a while, too the first one I've ever got the 'afraid' moodlet from. He tends to steal my wonders at first... however attacks those I hate later on.

Enemies

France: The worst backstabber I've ever met in my life... worst than watching the spy backstab a pootie! He often steals others citys in a huge army path... until their war path run right into my capital al full health!

China & Arabia: The both like to work as a team... rapid city spamming in between my most important trade routes... to my most likely 250 turns of city razing.

Egypt: My first ever game - turn 25 - 5 spearmen outside my only city. This is the worst of all... they do everything! DoWs, rapid citys, backstabbing, war hurting, face aching, chest bashing little doors of- :.;'., and that ;.,:; face! This ';,:, should just stop with his acts of a 'poor innocent' little Bob the builder...

Some in this list actually are little buggers with my spies... just not said in this. I though this was kinda something to do with it.

In my last game I coup'd a city state allied to enemy civ at war... -60 influence and 23% chance.

What's up.

It's not cheating. It's simple math. You had a 1 in 6 chance of killing your spy and you killed him.

Math FTW.

I love how you now open threads with

I'm all for a good challenge.

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This is practically crossing the line into self-parody. Does 85% look like 100% to you?

Someday the AIs must get actual revenge... where the player gets set back in time because the AI is reloading to fix an unfair result.

players always hated those probabilistic mechanics, why do devs continue to push them, are they lazy?
well at least this is history now

If the AI had a spy in the said Cs then the odds drop dramatically, regardless of the level they use(although higher level spies are more effective). I suspect there is a bug that doesn't show the true percentage, or is it by design?

shaglio said:

85% =/= 100%

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This.

Having an 85% chance and failing makes it too tempting to reload. Low chances are also tempting in SP for the same reason. I reload when I do something bone headed, but I almost never try to coupe, mostly because reloading would be too tempting for me.

I do wish this mechanic were different, that coupes were 100% but variable in time and/or gold required. As implemented, it is a game feature that I pretty much ignore.

shaglio said:

85% =/= 100%

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This.

Even a 99.99% chance does not mean you will be successful. The statistic only tells you that you have a 99.99% probability of success.

@ OP: Do not interpret that in the sense of "in a sample of 10000 cases, 9999 of them (99.99%) will definitely be successful", or "the percentage chance is not 100%, but I believe that it is subjectively high enough for me to succeed no matter what", as that is what you seem to be doing.

Probability =/= definitive guarantee of anything (unless: if and only if it is 0% or 100%).

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MrTaylordw said:

Allies

England: I think she knows I'm born in her lands, she tends to be friendly despite her spamming RG all the dang time. I just hate how she never tires in wars... she builds up nothing and declares war on other people with a weak army. But the result is nor do the others try for some odd reason. Only time she has ever been wiped out in my games was by Greece.
.

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Elizabeth for me is usually that angry old hag that never shuts up, and has a long list of "Who I should meaninglessly bother next". Now, if she actually built any units to speak of, that may become an issue .

Has anyone seen a 100% coup chance? When I used to coup, I .member having 85 %.

85% is the max. And, near as I can tell, that computation does not take into account the presence of a rival spy.

Anyone who has ever played Civ4 will laugh at you. 85% is nothing.

CivAddict2013 said:

Can somebody explain to me how this is NOT cheating?

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Here we go again.

shaglio said:

85% =/= 100%

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This, too.

I deal blackjack for a living. You must be the guy telling me I am cheating because I pulled a 5 on my 16 to beat your 20.

Learn maths dude.