Patroklos
Deity
- Joined
- Feb 25, 2003
- Messages
- 12,721
Hey,
I was always skeptical of the claim that had the German effected a general breakout that the Allies would have been thrown back into the sea. Every TV doc or general history book seems to contend that this would have been the case once Rotterdamn fell.
Personally, I doubt that would be the case. Considering the Germans didn't even have the fuel reserves to finish the offensive itself, how were they going to pursue us across France? And Patton and the 3rd Army were still sitting South of the battlefield anyways. Sure we would have taken quite a beating and lost the low countries again, but thown back into the sea? I think not.
Now obviously the events surrounding the collapse of German and the end of WWII would be different, but without speculating on the Cold War political aspects, this is what I think a succesful German Ardennes offensive would have yeilded;
1) The Russians captureing Berlin and ending the war anyways, however maybe upwards to a year later.
2) Static Western Front for at least a year. Patton would shift from driving into Germany to secure his flank. Perhaps would drive the forces back to the Rhine again since Germany would undoubtedly transfer units to the Eastern front. But either way Patton would have lost initiative and resources recapturing lost territory instead of the Ruhr and Germany. I'd give the Western Allies another 7-9 months before having the mass to continue.
3) Maybe another assasination attempt on Hitler, from higher up as one of his henchmen tries to usurp power and then negotiate peace. A resurgance of hope by a German victory would not have helped Hitler at this point. He was now relying on a fatalistic resigned to death like cult instead of one focused on unbridled optimism. People would begin to think the world may have given then a way out to capitalize on. That is a wild conjecture though that I can't back up.
What definetly wouldn't have happened.
1) Western Allies would not be driven from the continent, just suffer a serious setback.
2) Russians would capture most of Germany from the East after taking Berlin, may not even be nessecary if Hitler repeated his stand there. Though with the West comparatively secure he may have fled to his mountain fortresses. Who knows.
3) Western Allies would still not make peace with a Hitler run government, but should that fall would be a little more open to listening to say Goerbels or Himmler.
What do you all think?
I was always skeptical of the claim that had the German effected a general breakout that the Allies would have been thrown back into the sea. Every TV doc or general history book seems to contend that this would have been the case once Rotterdamn fell.
Personally, I doubt that would be the case. Considering the Germans didn't even have the fuel reserves to finish the offensive itself, how were they going to pursue us across France? And Patton and the 3rd Army were still sitting South of the battlefield anyways. Sure we would have taken quite a beating and lost the low countries again, but thown back into the sea? I think not.
Now obviously the events surrounding the collapse of German and the end of WWII would be different, but without speculating on the Cold War political aspects, this is what I think a succesful German Ardennes offensive would have yeilded;
1) The Russians captureing Berlin and ending the war anyways, however maybe upwards to a year later.
2) Static Western Front for at least a year. Patton would shift from driving into Germany to secure his flank. Perhaps would drive the forces back to the Rhine again since Germany would undoubtedly transfer units to the Eastern front. But either way Patton would have lost initiative and resources recapturing lost territory instead of the Ruhr and Germany. I'd give the Western Allies another 7-9 months before having the mass to continue.
3) Maybe another assasination attempt on Hitler, from higher up as one of his henchmen tries to usurp power and then negotiate peace. A resurgance of hope by a German victory would not have helped Hitler at this point. He was now relying on a fatalistic resigned to death like cult instead of one focused on unbridled optimism. People would begin to think the world may have given then a way out to capitalize on. That is a wild conjecture though that I can't back up.
What definetly wouldn't have happened.
1) Western Allies would not be driven from the continent, just suffer a serious setback.
2) Russians would capture most of Germany from the East after taking Berlin, may not even be nessecary if Hitler repeated his stand there. Though with the West comparatively secure he may have fled to his mountain fortresses. Who knows.
3) Western Allies would still not make peace with a Hitler run government, but should that fall would be a little more open to listening to say Goerbels or Himmler.
What do you all think?