Recession watch: April

MADRID (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund sees the world economy contracting by between 0.5 and 1 percent in 2009, Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said in an interview published on Wednesday.

He said a recovery could come in the first two quarters of 2010.

"If ... economic policies are appropriate, the recovery should come in the first two quarters of 2010," he told Spanish newspaper El Pais.

The IMF said last month in two reports prepared for a meeting of Group of 20 nations this week that the global economy will shrink as much as 1 percent this year -- its first contraction since World War Two.

It forecast a gradual recovery in 2010.

Separately, Strauss-Kahn said it was possible the European Central Bank could resort to purchasing assets with newly created money to boost the money supply.

"I'm sure that, if necessary, it will not hold back, but be active against a fall in prices," he said.

With regards to Spain, Strauss-Kahn said although Spanish banks were not directly exposed to U.S. toxic assets they had created their own.

"I'm more worried about the consequences of the real estate boom on the Spanish banking system than the direct impact of U.S. toxic assets," he said.

He said there could be problems with some Spanish banks needing government help although the system overall was healthy.

Spain on Sunday launched its first bank rescue of the global financial crisis to prevent solvency problems at unlisted savings bank Caja Castilla la Mancha (CCM).

Spanish banks' capital and liquidity levels are being worn down by limited access to money markets and soaring debt defaults during Spain's recession.

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JerichoHill said:

We're out of the recession!!!!!

Spoiler :

April Fools

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Another 20,000 people have signed on to the Live Register in March, bringing the seasonally adjusted total to 372,800, according to the latest figures from the Central Statistics Office.

It is the biggest Live Register total on record, following an earlier record in February. Records began in 1965.

Read the full CSO report

AdvertisementThe CSO says that in the year to March, there was an unadjusted increase of 173,279 on the Live Register up 87.5%, which is the highest on record.

The CSO said the unemployment rate rose to 11% last month from 10.4% in February.

More men than women joined the live register last month, with 13,600 males and 6,000 females.

The Taoiseach said a fall is unlikely in the coming months.

Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny said the rise in unemployment was an appalling situation and asked the Taoiseach to consider proposals laid out last week to create 100,000 jobs.

Labour leader Eamon Gilmore said the latest unemployment figures were really bad.

He said it seemed the Government was throwing in the towel in regards to saving jobs.

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NEW YORK (Reuters) - Job losses in the U.S. private sector accelerated in March, more than economists' expectations, according to a report by ADP Employer Services on Wednesday.

Private employers cut jobs by a record 742,000 in March versus a 706,000 revised cut in February that was originally reported at 697,000 jobs, said ADP, which has been carrying out the survey since 2001.

The big drop foreshadows a huge decline in the non-farm payroll reading in the government's employment report that will be released on Friday, some analysts said.

"It's a terrible number. It is almost a loss of three quarters of a million jobs which is possibly the highest we have seen so far over the length of this crisis," said Matt Esteve, foreign exchange trader with Tempus Consulting in Washington.

U.S. stock futures and the dollar fell after news of the bigger-than-expected job losses, while U.S. Treasury bonds regained some of their lost ground.

Economists had expected 655,000 private-sector job cuts in March in the ADP report, according to a recent Reuters poll.

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March 2009 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®
PMI at 36.3%

DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report's information reflects the entire United States, while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of March 2009.

New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories Contracting
Prices Falling
Supplier Deliveries Faster
Some Industries Expect to Benefit From Economic Stimulus Package

(Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector failed to grow in March for the 14th consecutive month, and the overall economy contracted for the sixth consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Norbert J. Ore, CPSM, C.P.M., chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The rapid decline in manufacturing appears to have moderated somewhat, as the PMI remains in the mid-30s for a third consecutive month. While the PMI is slightly higher in March, the New Orders Index offers greater encouragement, as it rose above the 40-percent mark for the first time in seven months. The Production Index showed no benefit as yet from the improvement in new orders, as it continued to decline at a rate similar to March. The rate of decline in the Employment Index slowed slightly, and the same held true for the Prices Index. A special question was asked with regard to the Economic Stimulus Package, and five of the 18 manufacturing industries expect to derive some benefit from the stimulus."

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Rossiya said:

Recession Watch: April?

April?

It's not even April yet!

APRIL FOOLS!

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The OECD forecasts that Japan’s GDP will shrink by 6.6% in 2009 as a whole, wiping out all the gains from the previous five years of recovery.

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Manufacturers' Shipments, Orders, and Inventory

Summary
New orders for manufactured goods in February, up following six consecutive monthly decreases, increased $6.1 billion or 1.8 percent to $352.2 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 3.5 percent January decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.6 percent. Shipments, down seven consecutive months, decreased $0.4 billion or 0.1 percent to $365.9 billion. This was the longest streak of consecutive monthly decreases since the series was first published on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 2.6 percent January decrease. Unfilled orders, down five consecutive months, decreased $10.7 billion or 1.4 percent to $773.2 billion. This was the longest streak of consecutive monthly decreases since September 2002-January 2003. This followed a 2.0 percent January decrease. The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was 5.98, down from 6.07 in January. Inventories, down six consecutive months, decreased $6.2 billion or 1.2 percent to $529.7 billion. This also was the longest streak of consecutive monthly decreases since March 2003-January 2004 and followed a 1.1 percent January decrease. The inventories-to-shipments ratio was 1.45, down from 1.46 in January.

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Office of Workforce Security
UI Weekly Claims

In the week ending March 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 669,000, an increase of 12,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 657,000. The 4-week moving average was 656,750, an increase of 6,500 from the previous week's revised average of 650,250.

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warpus said:

Whoa, the Polish unemployment rate is lower than the EU average.

even lower than the US rate? Weird.

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warpus said:

Whoa, the Polish unemployment rate is lower than the EU average.

even lower than the US rate? Weird.

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