promotion probabilities

sumthinelse

sumthinelse

civ investigator
Joined
Mar 20, 2002
Messages
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Location
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What are the odds of a unit promotion:

  • non-mil. civ, reg->vet
  • non-mil. civ, vet->elite
  • mil. civ, reg->vet
  • mil. civ, vet->elite

I searched everywhere I could think of, didn't see this posted. I can do the research, but if somebody already knows....
 
Odds of promotion are based on whether the civ has the Militaristic trait or not and whether the victory was against barbarians or not. Basically, chances of promotion are halved for victories over Barbarians and doubled for Militaristic civs.

non-militaristic civ vs. non-barbarians:
conscript to regular: 1 in 2
regular to veteran: 1 in 4
veteran to elite: 1 in 8

non-militaristic civ vs. barbarians:
conscript to regular: 1 in 4
regular to veteran: 1 in 8
veteran to elite: 1 in 16

militaristic civ vs. non-barbarians:
conscript to regular: 1 in 1
regular to veteran: 1 in 2
veteran to elite: 1 in 4

militaristic civ vs. barbarians:
conscript to regular: 1 in 2
regular to veteran: 1 in 4
veteran to elite: 1 in 8
 
cool man:cool:
i had a conscript warrior(from goody hut)who survived 5 archer attacks.i was playing as the germans.
first fight:conscript to regular
second fight:regular to veteran
third fight:stays veteran
next turn:4th fight:veteran=====>elite
5th fight:great leader!!!!!!!!
Man can we edit it in the editor in june?
and thx for the info!
 
Originally posted by Mike B. FIRAXIS
Odds of promotion are based on whether the civ has the Militaristic trait or not and whether the victory was against barbarians or not. Basically, chances of promotion are halved for victories over Barbarians and doubled for Militaristic civs.

non-militaristic civ vs. non-barbarians:
conscript to regular: 1 in 2
regular to veteran: 1 in 4
veteran to elite: 1 in 8

non-militaristic civ vs. barbarians:
conscript to regular: 1 in 4
regular to veteran: 1 in 8
veteran to elite: 1 in 16

militaristic civ vs. non-barbarians:
conscript to regular: 1 in 1
regular to veteran: 1 in 2
veteran to elite: 1 in 4

militaristic civ vs. barbarians:
conscript to regular: 1 in 2
regular to veteran: 1 in 4
veteran to elite: 1 in 8
Click to expand...

Thanks!! this is what I call clear info! thank you VERY much!!:)
 
Excellent info, Mike, and much appreciated.

Personal point of view: You will find criticism of Firaxis on this forum, and a good deal of it is exaggerated and/or unjustified. (Of course I criticize some aspects of Civ3 too but I have had a lot of fun with it.) Let me say that when I was a Blizzard customer, I never got this kind of direct help.

:goodjob:
 
For some reason, I think those stats are skewed somehow. I find promotion from conscript -> regular the hardest (usually 3 victories), reg -> vet 1 in 2 (ALWAYS, never haven't met those odds yet), and vet -> elite totally random (so I won't argue the 1 in 8 on that one).

Also, with militaristic civs I find sometimes I get a reg -> vet promotion with 1 victory, but leaders are still as rare...

Anyone else here in accordance?
 
Thanks, however, would you be so kind to give us the stats on promotion to leader?
 
Would the odds be changed if the units have different strengths? For example, is it the same if I win a battle against spearman or mechanic infantry?
 
If a civ has 2x the # of elite units, it should get 2x as many leaders. Militaristic is a stronger trait than I previously thought. Thanks, Mike! :)
 
Originally posted by Exsanguination
For some reason, I think those stats are skewed somehow. I find promotion from conscript -> regular the hardest (usually 3 victories), reg -> vet 1 in 2 (ALWAYS, never haven't met those odds yet), and vet -> elite totally random (so I won't argue the 1 in 8 on that one).

Also, with militaristic civs I find sometimes I get a reg -> vet promotion with 1 victory, but leaders are still as rare...

Anyone else here in accordance?
Click to expand...

Mike B. has been very reliable and trustworthy. When we sanity-check him, he is consistently right. If you can post a game where you think the odds are different from what he says, I will download it, turn off "remember random seed," and try it 100 times.
 
100 times is nowhere near significant for test purposes.
Just like I have had whole games where I never got one leader with elites, and others have gotten them better than the 1/12 or 1/16 odds. It balances out in the long run.
 
How about promotion odds relating to blitz units that attack (and win) more than one battle per turn?

It seems that veteran blitz units will always be promoted to elite if they win two battles in the same turn (seems like always, I can't swear to it -- but I bet Mike B could ;)).
 
Originally posted by Mike B. FIRAXIS
non-militaristic civ vs. non-barbarians:
conscript to regular: 1 in 2
regular to veteran: 1 in 4
veteran to elite: 1 in 8
Click to expand...
Mike, does this mean that when an extra level is introduced, the promotion will go like this for the example above:

conscript to green: 1 in 2
green to regular : 1 in 4
regular to veteran: 1 in 8
veteran to elite: 1 in 16
 
Originally posted by kring
100 times is nowhere near significant for test purposes.
Click to expand...

It depends on what you are testing. The more improbable the event, the more trials you need. For promotion conscript->regular I think it gives you a very good idea of whether 1/2 (or 1/1 for militarist) is a reasonably accurate statement of the odds. Thus, if I get 44 promotions and 56 non-promotions from 100 trials I would think that Mike's statement of 1/2 for promotion to regular looks good. And I do expect Mike's statement to be true, based on his track record.

However, you and I would agree that 100 trials do not give you a good idea of whether iron disappears with a probability of 1/800.
 
Originally posted by Catt
How about promotion odds relating to blitz units that attack (and win) more than one battle per turn?

It seems that veteran blitz units will always be promoted to elite if they win two battles in the same turn (seems like always, I can't swear to it -- but I bet Mike B could ;)).
Click to expand...

I didn't believe what you said at first, so I tried it. Actually it was a blitzing modified German modern armor with 100 attacks. It had attacked and won 3 times and had been promoted to conscript to veteran (2 promotions out of 3 victories). I saved the game at that point with "remember random seed" off (so that the random number changes every time). And lo and behold, the unit was promoted to elite 10 times out of 10! Wow! If the odds are 1/4 as advertised, the odds of that happening are 1/1,000,000!
 
To preface my remarks, I'm playing the Mac version, v1.21f...

That said, those listed odds may apply to a single fight per turn for a particular unit, but there is definitely a deterministic component (i.e., one not random).

If I have a defending unit: if it survives two attacks in the same turn, it is *always* promoted (from conscript to regular, or regular to veteran, or veteran to elite), whether fighting another civ or fighting barbarians... For an attacking unit, the odds seem right, but again, if I attack twice in the same turn with the same unit (obviously not possible until late in the game), it is *always* promoted.

The Great Leader is still random for elite units (i.e., winning twice in the same turn with an elite unit does not guarantee creation of a great leader) as far as I can tell...
 
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