[NFP] Anyone know how likely is it to join a Secret Society after every other civ got one?

[hhhhhh]

I'm in a game where I want void singers. But wasn't able to find them. Here is the situation:

• I met all other 3 SS but no luck with void singers.
• All other 7 civs joined a SS and two of them got void singers.
• I got 6-8 tribal villages but non of them are giving me the initiation.

I even took a look at RandCalls.csv, and found a few rand calls for discovering secret society after visiting tribal villages, and one of the roll is even 95 out of 100 (I believe the max is 99, since it starts at 0). Assuming the number is the bigger the better, does it mean I have a less than 5% chance of finding voidsinger in this case?

 

[DanQuayle]

The "BaseChance" is set at 70% to get an invitation to the voidsingers secret society when meeting a tribal village.
My theory is that this probability decreases over time, because otherwise the odds of getting 4 invites every game would approach 100% (but in practice it is clearly not the case).
I had a game were it took the 6th barbarian camp clear on T199 to get an invitation to the Sanguine Pact and none of the AIs had joined that society. So the fact that other AIs joined that secret society first does not appear to be the main factor or at the very least the only factor.

From the patch notes

Discovery is not guaranteed, but you are more likely to find a Society that other players have not discovered, or on continents where no Society has yet been discovered.

I even took a look at RandCalls.csv, and found a few rand calls for discovering secret society after visiting tribal villages, and one of the roll is even 95 out of 100 (I believe the max is 99, since it starts at 0). Assuming the number is the bigger the better, does it mean I have a less than 5% chance of finding voidsinger in this case?

Looks like it is the case, but to be sure you would need a larger sample of data. What is the lowest value that you rolled?
If you ever get an invitation to the voidsingers in that game, it would be interesting to find out which value you rolled to get it and at what turn. You might want to check tundra/snow for undiscovered villages.
What is the exact name of the "Location" column entry for the secret society rolls?

 

[hhhhhh]

What is the exact name of the "Location" column entry for the secret society rolls?

"Rolling for chance to discover a Secret Society"

I lost the log from Turn 1 to Turn 83. The lowest I rolled from turn 84-100 was 46 out of 100. Already tried the tundra and snow ones, duh no luck.

 

[DanQuayle]

If I remember right from my past experiments with rock bands, the lower rolls had the more favorable results (ie concerts with more stars).
Assuming the odds are fixed at 30/70 and that the lower rolls are the favorable ones, rolls of 0-29 should trigger an invite (which would be consistent with your observation of no rolls below 46).

 

[hhhhhh]

Oh look what I found! So the chance is not constant. The tribal village on T96, was 15% but I found another one in T98 so the chance is now 43% and I think if I find one more tribal village it will be more likely. I will keep you updated.