I set my threshold at "no other important city sites, reachable by galley, and two sea food or one fish available".
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Presuming the two seafood, food surplus is +8. Presume Granary, Library, Forge, lighthouse. This means I can run two scientists and an engineer, and whip every 11 turns at size 11 [+2 food, 42-20 food required for growth].
This gives +6 science, +7.9 hammers (+3 engineer, +1.5 city site, 3.4 whipping [37.5 hammers/11 turns]) and +23 commerce per turn (disregarding trade routes). Converting science to commerce, the original 100 hammers for the settler (each worth roughly three commerce) now gain ~17.5 hammers per turn. That is somewhat decent.
Colossus or FIN gives +3 hammers each,
Moai +11 hammers (although usually this goes to another city much earlier).
Representation +9 science (+3 hammers)
No slavery: -3.4 hammers
Trade routes: Depends on empire. Probably something about +6 commerce (+2 hammers) at size 11. Note that the first island city creates more than that, as it enables oversea trading.
Fish means one scientist less, or -1 hammer.
So FIN+Rep+Routes gives about 25.5 hammers. This is pretty good.
I estimate the time needed to arrive at this point is roughly 60 turns (calculating 270 hammers for LH, Forge, Library at 2/3 base production. Actually it is probably faster). Build order is Lib (if seafood not in first ring) -> Forge -> Lighthouse -> Library (if seafood in first ring).
So, playing the game I settle the islands reachable by galley after the situation on the continent is reasonably stable, I have writing, currency and metal casting.
Islands that can be reached only by galleon are settled if I
- plan on mining.inc
- or am FIN and will run slavery for a little while longer
- plan on switching to US somewhat soon (highly unlikely).
However, I have usually much better things to do with my hammers once astronomy comes around.