It looks like a Religious victory should be possible at this point. Keep hitting Pacal until he's small and capitulates, but don't take the AP (so he's your competition for religious victory and his vote isn't big enough to prevent your victory), then get Astronomy, switch to the AP religion, and build missionaries and galleons to get them over there. You want Astronomy to do some of the work spreading AND you don't want too many of them guys converting to the AP religion - they just need to have it in 1 little city. Some may convert, that's okay. Suck up to everyone so they like you, and when the vote comes up, you should hopefully win.
If you take AP away, Mansa becomes the next highest candidate, and if he's using that religion, then by himself he will be forced to keep you from winning. You need like 5/6 of the votes, so it's tight.
A few questions of my own; I've only loaded up the final save to take a look at it:
Why haven't you got OB with Mansa? You're missing out on trade route money here!
Why haven't you traded for his tech yet?
You have your gold % set to 0, losing you 215 gpt; you need 60% gold to get out of the red (+5 gpt). Where have you been getting gold? Is this just a temporary deficit from selling Education and capturing cities?
Opening borders with Mansa brings income to 17 gpt at 60%. Buying Astronomy, thanks to all your OBs with everyone else, lets you drop gold to 50% and still make 22 gpt. Running at 40% gets you Chemistry in 3 turns (vice the 2 you had it at before) with a much smaller deficit. There's 43 gpt available through trade when you get Astronomy, plus some resources, which you need some happiness to stop burning money on Culture. You should snag Mansa's spare resources if you can so you have more to trade with. You don't have anything else getting you income (Spiral Minaret, Merchants, Priests, Shrines, selling off resources) so you're totally dependent on the slider, tech-trading, and pillaging for income, and you've only got Markets, no Grocers, Banks, and one Courthouse.
I guess the questions there would be: did you have a reason for not getting Astronomy/OB? You could've been doing Mercantilism if you're waiting for Astronomy. I think the OB with Moose was just an oversight (you can't lose by having it), and the lack of money-multipliers simply because you're busy building units. Also, were you holding resources in reserve for when Astronomy kicked in?
Edit: Oh geez, I didn't realize this thread was 5 pages long! Sorry if any questions/observations are stupid.