Germany have expanded to the east eating up most small countries.
I rather would merge Poland (wich isn't small country) Czech, Slovakia and Hungary into Visegrád Group as addition i would see there Lithuania. Neutral against Rebels, and Baltic See Alliance, Friendly with Iberian Alliance, Hostile with, Russia, Great Russia, Alpine Alliance
and Germany, Austria, Slovenia, Northern Italy, Switzerland, and some minor part of France into Alpine Alliance. Alpine Alliance would be hostile for Visegrád Group so it could spread into this teritories.
The rest of France (majority), northern Spain, Southern Italy, and Flanders, Greece, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales into Rebels Alliance
About Ukraina - i wold make west pro european - sympatizing with Visegrád Group and Alpine Alliance and east part of Ukraina merged with belaurusia - anti european and pro-Russian.
Estonia Latvia, Finland and Sweden i would make Baltic See Alliance - very neutral
Norway, Denmark, England, the Rest of Belgium, Holland i would make North See Aliance in war with Rebels and Hostile with Alpine Alliance.
Russia i would make it place of the second revolution divide country into two powers - Russia and Great Russia rulled by neo-bolschevists or neofashists - what you prefer. Rest of the Spain and Portugal i would make Iberian Alliance In war with rebels and hostile with Alpine Alliance