With Thebes' low natural production, you should be building a settler. You're probably assuming that slow-building a granary at 3
per turn will ultimately give you faster growth and extra health at Thebes; the problem is that Thebes grows much faster than it produces (excluding the proper use of Slavery), so you'll spend unproductive turns at sizes 3 and 4 while waiting for your build to finish, and then you'll
still have grown past the health cap; therefore, in fact, the granary will not produce the desired effect. What's more, you're neglecting your horizontal expansion; the Middle East in particular will soon be sealed off by regional competitors, i.e. Hammurabi and Saladin, and possibly the Greeks/Byzantines, whoever is on the map. The Ptolemaic dynasty controlled the Levante and Cilicia for a long time, why not make that your goal for early expansion?
In contrast to your current plan, if you build a settler near the southern sheep and order your worker to herd them in a pasture, you will end up with two small cities that can work all of their tiles to their full potential for the time being. Since the River Nile would flow between the two cities and the relevant stretch of that stream would be contained entirely within your own borders, you would not be required to build roads or research Sailing to connect the new city to your trade network -- "can trade along rivers and coast" in that tech's description refers to tentative trade routes that leave your own borders. Note that these Sailing routes can be very lucrative, as they save worker turns otherwise spent on roads, and foreign trade is always more valuable; this map in particular allows for great Sailing trade routes because the Mediterranean, Black, North and Baltic Seas are all connected. That's not quite your concern yet, though; just keep it in mind that a single exploring galley may pay off its cost in opportunity and
well for you.
Why are trade routes so powerful? Simple answer: they yield
for almost no investment beyond tech/roads, every turn, without any need to use worker labor or population points on building/working cottages. That's not to say you should neglect your cottages, as their mature yields very much pay for the opportunity cost of not working farms/mines/specialists, but profits from non-Financial cottages come much later than Currency, a tech of supreme importance, since it instantly turns nearly any city's commerce output into a net profit compared to its maintenance costs via (1) trade routes and (2) the ability to build
from
. Your cottages must effectively also pay back the costs of any trade route you couldn't establish several turns sooner because you chose to improve your tiles for
rather than
/
for faster settlers. Trade routes do cost 100
because they only come bundled with a settler, so to speak, but you want settlers for other benefits as well and can't avoid building them, so the opportunity cost of trade routes is very small.
Anyway, back to why you should prefer settler over granary here:
By virtue of its placement, the new city would receive the fresh water bonus and less floodplains to cause you trouble with low health; better yet, by roading the sheep, you can add another health resource that would give its benefits to your whole empire, rather than just one city. Thus you could also achieve progress towards your (well-considered) strategic goal of improving health, but in a shorter timeframe than by slow-building the granary, while also expanding your empire.
By the way, I think that researching something like Mining -> Masonry -> Pottery -> Bronze Working -- and wasting no turns with the initial settler, of course
-- would have been optimal for you, because you could have built at least one quarry for additional
to speed up your settler/worker production (Masonry would have finished before the 12-turn worker would have finished improving the wheat, I think), same as if you had two plains cows at your start.
As general advice, before you have a granary + Slavery in your capital,
always build a settler rather than growing your capital when the best tile you can add at growth is a "forest" (that is, any tile with 3 combined
/
).
Here, with unhealthiness taking away your food, the 3/1/1 stone/floodplains (or marble/floodplains) tile you would next grow onto actually amounts to a 1/1/1 tile, 2 combined
/
, because two
are consumed by two points of unhealthiness past the available
. You can observe this directly in the city screen, where it currently says "-1
". Thus, since every population point adds another point of unhealthiness (and also unhappiness; remember this), you can foresee that the tile you add at size 2 will have its output stifled by -2 food per turn until you gain
by some means. To gain health, you would have to build either a settler (for the nearby sheep resource) or a granary, but the granary takes too long and only adds enough health for the size you're already on, so you still cannot grow and the granary's boost to growth wouldn't help you. You also cannot improve the stone or marble (10 turns of research to Masonry, and ~8 for a desert quarry after that) before Thebes grows at least twice and the granary will already be complete. Here, you can easily decide that it's time to build a settler.
Pottery is a good tech, but generally, commerce isn't quite as important in the beginning and you wouldn't be delaying cottages unreasonably if you were to improve the wheat and two quarries first. Besides, 10t earlier villages usually won't make up for 5t earlier cities, keyword: "snowball" and all that. For a demonstration of this, you can see
this single player map I'm currently playing, on which BornInCantaloup expertly surpasses my opening by using an innovative tech path (correctly identifying the stranger characteristics of the map, while my play was too generic) and focusing on horizontal growth (i.e. more cities, not bigger ones), which I have neglected. As a result, in 1000 BC, I'm at six cities with a seventh settler coming in shortly, but BornInCantaloup has
eight by turn 75 and will tech Currency faster than I can, with Sailing also researched, so that his commerce output will overtake mine in short order.
From that benchmark alone, you can probably imagine that not founding a second city before roughly turn 40 would have disastrous effects on your economy.