Middle-East on the brink of international realignment?

[Virote_Considon]

What am I reading in this thread?

 

[hobbsyoyo]

What am I reading in this thread?

super sayan awesomeness

 

[Virote_Considon]

I was thinking more along the lines of ''school-age ******edness''.

 

[Tahuti]

Iran support Palestinians because Sunni countries did not. It gives the Iranian government popular support in arab countries and diplomatic leverage in penis measuring contest with Saudi Arabia.

Saddam's Iraq was historically the chief benefactor of the Palestinians, and to a lesser extent Gaddhafi was as well. Both were Sunni Arabs.

It has nothing to gain from anti-arab rhetoric and even discussing this idea is stupid.

Whoa whoa, watch your tone man!

Fact is Iran has more reasons to be Anti-Arab than to be Anti-Western, but power political reasons prevent them being so.

 

[Gen.Mannerheim]

Fact is Iran has more reasons to be Anti-Arab than to be Anti-Western, but power political reasons prevent them being so.

I'm still confused as to why you think this. Iran dreams of being the power I'm the Arab world. Being anti-Arab will not get you this. By trying to strike the West and the U.S. in particular's prestige and power in the region could possibly dislodge them and let Iran fill the vacuum.

 

[Tahuti]

I'm still confused as to why you think this. Iran dreams of being the power I'm the Arab world. Being anti-Arab will not get you this. By trying to strike the West and the U.S. in particular's prestige and power in the region could possibly dislodge them and let Iran fill the vacuum.

Arab countries are more often than not economic and religious competitors to Iran. This is especially true for Saudi-Arabia (which unsurprisingly is an ally of the West).

 

[innonimatu]

I do think that the Arab spring is going to force Israel to deal with the Palestinian statehood question however. The thing about the dictatorships that are falling is that they prevented the populace from making policies to antagonize Israel over the issue. Egypt is a good example of this.

No. Egypt has always decided war or peace in its relation from Israel from above. So did the other neighbors. It's not going to change. And though you can't exclude insane politicians, any national leaders who are not totally insane can see now that a war will not be reinforcing their control over their countries. More rhetoric, yes. War, no.

The hole Middle East instability is about a sick size competition between national leaders, not about pressures from below clamoring for international war. Even the syrian civil war is looking suspiciously engineered with external fighters, not like home brewed rebellion, and anyway not looking for territorial changes. Only Israel has been having problems with controlling a portion of its population and defining a future for portions of its territory, and that's because it hasn't yet quit using failed colonial policies.
The only other place with any potential for border changes and international wars is the kurdish area, but all the countries sharing it don't want a war. They're kind of like the poles before ww1, a good reason for the states sharing the region to not go to war against each other!

 

[hobbsyoyo]

No. Egypt has always decided war or peace in its relation from Israel from above. So did the other neighbors. It's not going to change. And though you can't exclude insane politicians, any national leaders who are not totally insane can see now that a war will not be reinforcing their control over their countries. More rhetoric, yes. War, no.

The hole Middle East instability is about a sick size competition between national leaders, not about pressures from below clamoring for international war. Even the syrian civil war is looking suspiciously engineered with external fighters, not like home brewed rebellion, and anyway not looking for territorial changes. Only Israel has been having problems with controlling a portion of its population and defining a future for portions of its territory, and that's because it hasn't yet quit using failed colonial policies.
The only other place with any potential for border changes and international wars is the kurdish area, but all the countries sharing it don't want a war. They're kind of like the poles before ww1, a good reason for the states sharing the region to not go to war against each other!

I never said egypt or any other countries would choose war with israel. I merely stated that democratically controlled governments were more likely to antagonize israel diplomatically, in a way that authoritarian regimes would not necssarily. Nice misread though

 

[Ajidica]

Whoa whoa, watch your tone man!

Fact is Iran has more reasons to be Anti-Arab than to be Anti-Western, but power political reasons prevent them being so.

Over the last few decades, for Iran anti-Arab was anti-west. The primary Arab states were Iraq, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Syria. Iraq and Egypt both had pro-western secular governments, much like the Shah's government. Revolutionary Iran wasn't going to be very friendly to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Princedoms due to ideological differences (plus they were nominaly pro-west), and so on.

 

[r16]

for a valid reason ı feel ı have to quote myself

now there is a thread in the Chamber where ı am lately the only poster and ı think bumping that would take me out of tolerable limits .

similarly on the news is a picture of President Obama politely speaking with the Turkish PM with a baseball bat in hand . In countries where Baseball is not played , that stick is popular only for its secondary function . Hence the choice of that image as the picture of the day by the White House might turn out to be unfortunate . Considering Mr. Obama has been a man of law , a comparision of scores might be deficient .

in light of the White House statement that the US president is a pal of the Turkish PM , he wasn't actually threatening him . Don't worry , it had already been guessed as much . So , until ı get beyond a certain point ı will be ranting around here , as we are central to the realingment business , one way or the other . Please don't feel giving up what ever you are discussing .

Spoiler :

the picture came at an awkward moment when US publicly warned Turkey not to further militarize the Syrian problem with discussions of invading Central 'stan , opps North Syria , ooops liberating all peoples of freedom craving but brutally oppressed Syria . Also coinciding with something in SouthEast Turkey that stinks , but whatever . Here Washington says they are with the goverment ... Plus some blah blah on the eternal friendship of the peoples of USA and Turkey .

not good enough . One democrat who writes for a CIA front complains on TV that the militarists and the seperatists have agreed -again- to work against the goverment . Also bringing in the traitorous Esad in the words of an another . And there is no shame the first one says . Oh , really ? This poster only parrots what the democratic experts say and he said the seperatists were ours , ı didn't . Expertise in Human Rights does not mean automatic reading comprehension , right ? Not good enough , most definitely and any offers to solve the impasse ? Of course , no . It always falls to the fool .

hmm , let's see . For the siege send in the Police . Didn't all the channels say one thousand to two thousand SWAT members would break the enemy where up to 200 000 soldiers , SWAT members and village guards had failed to do previously ? Ahnold does it in every movie . ( The actor formerly the California Governor )

for the militarists ? Arrest them all ... Hey , wait that requires American approval . Which is no more there . Oh , how it breaks democrats' hearts .

one can't get the newly elites . They arrested a former Chief of Staff , to be called Mr.A for the purposes of this discussion for being a ringleading coup-plotter . State documents officially state that he joined the terrorist organization also known as the Turkish Armed Forces at the tender age of 13 when he enrolled in a Military school . His former boss , Mr. B , also a retired CoS , talked favourably for Mr. A and journos expect the Judiciary to release Mr. A on the basis of that . The state prosecutor hugged Mr. B as he left the court and the journos expect the rest of the accused can safely be found guilty .

not exactly . The plan to break this country already foresaw that the newly elites would never succeed in convicting the coup plotters , with appropriate foreign pressure as necessary . Since this is essential to impress the general public to believe the military , the former lynchpin of the state , is all rotten while the newly elites are stealing the country by conspiracy . This is how people will simply watch Turkey sink into abyss until the seperatists reach the end of their tether . Then we will all see how Turkish civilians are capable of killing each other . Then it will be the time for Al Jazeeras of the world to unite . Feeding observations from Syria into simulations , people here suggest the our million dead civil war might be presented as a 5 million slaughter and ethnicide by the media .

nothing to worry about . Iran confident that the space for expansion will be available -to the West- is scrapping the family planning programme to reach a population of 150 to 200 millions . Now , that's foresight . And fun for the participants , eh ?

as always the journos are on guard ! One said it was a grave mistake not invade Iraq as America's dog back in 2003 . Just kidding he must be , how can he dare the decision that made the goverment , saying no to the Jewish organized Crusade to despoil the land of the Muslims and steal their oil ? It would be so low to think that the journo is trying to create a favourable impression for an invasion of Syria by implying the North Iraq rose in the vacuum and North Syria can do the same today . The two , Iraq and Syria , are soo different , today we are all Sunnis in the right of things and all them are all heretics . An advice for Mr. B , he should start arranging a legal defence team for the journo thinks he plotted against the Goverment by thinking we would go into Iraq and all the sins of the war , the blood of all those killed conscripts , would be on the Goverment since the Military remained silent during the decision making process . Everybody in the 21st Century Turkey seems to have memorized all the best books of the 19th Century Imperialism . You shrink if you don't grow !

a further note to the newly elites , the itsy bitsies and all . The 20% hike in salaries for the junior officers , NCOs and specialists will not convert the Army to you . Maybe 120% could ? How about 220% ? Anyhow , what will you do with an Army ? It will crumble and everybody will be deserting the moment America starts bombing us ... This is real life , don't expect the comeback a la the Metal Storm series . They are Western propaganda , as if you don't already know .

speaking of propaganda , Anita McNaught of Al Crusading by Media company just reported the Irresuction holds a third of Halep and that is mighty glorious advance . For weeks we have been hearing from the Turkish media that Esad lost up to two thirds of the city and that ratio of the Free Halep was never below 50% . Just yesterday the city center was liberated , wonder why the Al Crusading does not report it ? Might be because it is the central pillar of the world to lie to the Turk , the perceptionless imbecile , moron and idiot .

 

[Gen.Mannerheim]

Over the last few decades, for Iran anti-Arab was anti-west. The primary Arab states were Iraq, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Syria. Iraq and Egypt both had pro-western secular governments, much like the Shah's government. Revolutionary Iran wasn't going to be very friendly to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Princedoms due to ideological differences (plus they were nominaly pro-west), and so on.

I really see Iran's only real option is becoming increasing tied to Russia. Alone they are not strong enough to take on the U.S., let alone the Gulf principalities. They will probably join CSTO (such a joke alliance) to help Russia shore it up after pissing off Belarus and completely screwing up the Kyrgyzstan conflict. Russia would also like it because it gives them a new best buddy in the mid east after they lose Syria.

 

[Virote_Considon]

But what could Iran offer Russia as an ally that other states - such as Egypt - cannot? Why would Russia warm up to Iran all of a sudden? The only foreign policy objectives they share are that they both don't like the West much (more important for ally-starved Iran than Russia) and that they're both pretty friendly with Armenia (which'd be a lesser consideration for the both of them).

 

[Gen.Mannerheim]

But what could Iran offer Russia as an ally that other states - such as Egypt - cannot? Why would Russia warm up to Iran all of a sudden? The only foreign policy objectives they share are that they both don't like the West much (more important for ally-starved Iran than Russia) and that they're both pretty friendly with Armenia (which'd be a lesser consideration for the both of them).

Russian-Iranian relations are stronger than that. Russia is the numba 1 supplier of Iran's military and in conjunction with North Korea basically doing their nuclear program. They both are doing pretty well on the fossil fuel front as well. Russia is increasingly becoming ally starved as well, as seen with the complete Herp Derp that is CSTO, their failure to make China friendlier to them, and pissing off India by trying to make Pakistan an ally. Iran still has a pretty strong military and is in direct conflict with the major U.S. Islamic allies Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Turkey, and to a lesser extent Afghanistan (which is another reason they like Pakistan atm).

The problem with Egypt is that nobody knows what their foreign policy will be a year from now. Iran is for better or worse a stable place atm. Russia needs allies closer to home, not a couple in Latin America and a few in Africa kinda maybe. Iran would be a cheap one to pick up. Russia and China are starting to jockey for Central Asian allies, and China's got the stronger hand atm I think.

 

[otago]

Russia supplying Iran with S-300/ S-400 missiles/ technicians/operators would go a long way toward making Iran best buddies with Russia.
It would certainly make the Israelis have a long hard think if the cost a single strike on Iran is worth the cost in aircraft/pilots.

 

[Gen.Mannerheim]

Moscow can’t afford to let Iran get friendlier with Beijing then themselves. Every time Russia pisses off their former Central Asia republics (which is happening more and more) They turn to China (except of Kazakhstan who then lets the U.S. build bases on its soil). Russia is so desperately trying to find a buddy in the region. Egypt was always a fair weather friend, Libya was just insane and oddly rather western in outlook and Syria is headed out the door. Russian desperation in this regard can be seen in Russia trying to woo both India and Pakistan at the same time, and this stupid plan only drives India closer to the U.S. and Pakistan to China.

 

[r16]

what would you do if you were a young American officer , say 30 years old ? You would have learnt by now that the electoral system of your country gives special power to interest groups focussing on Israel and the security of that country is crucial to your military planning . Won't discuss that , it's your system , right or wrong , and it appears to be working ; considering your hegemonic status .

so it's not much of a stretch that you consider establishment of Kurdish state in the Middle East is an essential and actually easy way to serve your country . That would weaken the suicidally inclined Arabs , the lunatically dangerous Iranians and some unmentionables and divide collective attention that might instead remain fixated on Israel . And the Kurds might realise an American dream of their own and you would be honoured by their appreciation . And maybe in the line of duty , you would be tasked with observing the Turks . What would you see ?

Spoiler :

you know your history . This is a country built on the remains of an once impressive - latterly only funny empire and for a long time run by a military oligarchy with hardline civilian extensions into various acpects of public life ; a country that couldn't decide whether it was Communist or was it Fascist . The Turks must have massacred the Armenians , just like they did to everybody that stood in the way of their lust for plunder and blood . And given the slightest chance would do the same to the Kurds .

so you would be pleased with the new Turkey for breaking the shackles of such an undemocratic past . For your superiors bury the files that have an exact list of Turkish dignitaries on Uncle Sam's payroll , it escapes your attention that since the 1950s in every high level decision that hurt Turkey or any of its peoples , America had direct influence .

it will colour your thinking . Looking at the make believe anti-Americanism of the old , you will only be happy with the new . Some bright fellows who come over there and agree to play a little game . Your pals are fully occupied with the antics of the Arabs and here come some Turkish nationals who are ready to stress their common Islamic roots with the trouble makers . The game is easy . The new Turkey opposes Israel on something , Israel spanks the new Turkey , victimising it so that the Arab streets will forget the 5 decades America made Ankara to be extra careful of where Israel stood in any field , meanwhile your goverment will be kinda subsidizing any bank or fund to dabble in Turkish economy so that the new Turkey will look like a success story .

your immediate superior in the chain of command approves . His driver shot himself in Nebraska after a second tour in Iraq . While his closest buddy from West Point got it in an IED event 5 clicks from Fallujah . Your commander was the first on the scene and all he could do was to order human remains be scraped off that wall of the house nearby . In August last year he even comtemplated the sh t the Iraqis had to endure , after finding an old magazine on the book shelf , with an article on deformed infants with pictures of a couple of monstrosities that would make their mothers faint and he tried to calculate the amount of the Depleted Uranium they filled the city with . Anything that doesn't involve all that has to be good ...

so there you are , feeding the same UAV feed to the Turks and the seperatists at the same time . Keeping the fascist/communist Military busy with scandals of which America knows everything since America had them instigated in the first place . You are eroding the potential of any possible threats to the good plan while keeping an eye on every possible ally . It's immaterial that 818 Turkish troops have been killed in the last 10 years . It is somebody else who buries them .

there you are , having protected the seperatists at every chance , day after day . Every air strike to their safe zone in Iraq was vetted by the Pentagon and the only fools who couldn't run fast enough suffered . Ditto for ground operations , just to cool Turkish public opinion . Then just as Ankara learns the plan actually does not involve the neo-Ottoman empire in any way but as a laughing stock , the Turkish Army also learns much water has flown under the bridges , fighting a positional battle for 13 days and still no results . Neverminding a perceptible increase in the pundits' interest in an American intervention in Syria to forestall any kind of operations in Syria against this seed of Kurdistan , yet another component to be protected and matured as a beacon of hope - for the oppressed up North . So what , the Turks can only babble and nothing else , it certainly won't stick that they can claim Washington would simply watch 10 million Syrians die as long as a particular sector was free of Turkish interference .

nothing to be revealed to general public . Back in the 90s when you hadn't yet decided between becoming a soldier and a cop , your uncle finally told how greasy long haired hippies spat at him at the airport coming home after surviving his year as a draftee in Nam . After that long years of training that explained the US sucked at the time only because the media was too informed .

though to the untrained the risks are so pointlessly exaggerated . A quick scan of the Turkish scene shows none of the smart people are happy and they now find the phrase Vatan Millet Sakarya is such a tongue twister after years of mocking this perfect summary of the nationalist propaganda . For national unity is essential today , It is the new Turkey who runs the risk of losing power . So suddenly catchy empty slogans are no more fascist excuses of yesteryears to enable the militarist dictatorship survive even longer . For the present days opinion leaders have discovered America doesn't love them at all . Just days ago the Governor of a province in the North was taped offering to buy the Journalists so that bad news wouldn't reach the public and he knew the cameras were on ...

everything about Turkey is a fake . Anybody who says the blackmail of civil war in Turkey can't be contained to remain at a possibility level to silence structures that might otherwise tried to act against the good plan is a fool . A real fool if he says the planned controlled meltdown of Turkey to more manageable sub-units for the interests of the West will soon outrun its American masters and will turn into a free for all , anything goes bloodfest ; a Chernobyl of epic proportions . Foolish in the extreme , as everybody knows America can never ever fail .

it's afterall the Turks' own mistake to fall for the neo-Ottoman sting , to believe they could ever be allowed to be a power of their own mind , safely disregarding the corollary of too much Mehter music would the 3rd Siege of Vienna and weekly refreshment of the lists of interdicton targets around . It is only funny that the Turks have fed the locations of Polish Cavalry barracks to the F-15E squadrons they don't have .

whatever you do , just don't claim what will happen is unfair and had you known you would have acted differently . Although it is indeed fraught with special difficulties to communicate with civilizations who haven't discovered interstellar travel yet .

 

[del62]

I see the president of Iran has been up to his tricks again,

http://normblog.typepad.com/normblog/2012/08/the-age-of-that-zionist-clan.html

Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is in annihilate-Israel mode once more. There are people who will tell you that such threats are not aimed against the Jewish people, since it's only the Zionist regime he has in view. And, indeed, on this occasion the 'Zionist regime' is what he's reported as saying must be annihilated, in the interests of freedom and justice. Notice, however, a small detail concerning historical periodization: according to Ahmadinejad, it has now been some 400 years that a Zionist clan has been dominating world affairs and been the decision-makers 'in political, media, monetary, and banking organizations'. That's a lot of years, 400; rather longer than Israel, 'the regime', has existed. So it looks like something more than just regime-change is at work in Ahmadinejad's thinking. Anti-Semitism perhaps?

See, relatedly, a new episode of Holocaust-denial - by a Hamas official.

Perhaps some of his apologist's on here would care to comment

 

[dutchfire]

While I'm not an Ahmadinejad apologist, I would like to say that there really is no reason to take his public speeches more seriously than the North Korean television.

 

[Tahuti]

Over the last few decades, for Iran anti-Arab was anti-west. The primary Arab states were Iraq, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Syria. Iraq and Egypt both had pro-western secular governments, much like the Shah's government. Revolutionary Iran wasn't going to be very friendly to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Princedoms due to ideological differences (plus they were nominaly pro-west), and so on.

True. But Iran's primary opposition to the West stems from its perceived support of Israel, which Iran for stability's sake is obligated to oppose, along with its allies, due to its Shi'ite allies being in conflict with Israel. Should Assad dissappear out of the picture, Iran will feel less need to be conflict with Israel, and thus with the West as a whole.

I really see Iran's only real option is becoming increasing tied to Russia. Alone they are not strong enough to take on the U.S., let alone the Gulf principalities. They will probably join CSTO (such a joke alliance) to help Russia shore it up after pissing off Belarus and completely screwing up the Kyrgyzstan conflict. Russia would also like it because it gives them a new best buddy in the mid east after they lose Syria.

Considering Russia and Israel aren't enemies, despite their support for each others grave enemies, being Pro-Russia and Pro-Israel isn't exactly mutually exclusive. Germany and China, for example, are both very close to both Russia and Israel.

 

[Virote_Considon]

Russian-Iranian relations are stronger than that.

Not really that stronger. Just because Russia-Iran relations are friendlier Iran-West relations, it doesn't mean they're cordial.

Russia is the numba 1 supplier of Iran's military

That's saying less about how great Iran-Russia relations are and more about how poor Iran's relations are with the rest of the military exporting countries of the world.

and in conjunction with North Korea basically doing their nuclear program.

Under the auspices that it is a civilian program. The Russians don't want a nuclear Iran. They have stepped in countless time offering to supply Iran's nuclear energy for them from Russia to subvert any possible Iranian nuclear development which may lead to them gaining nuclear weapons. These offers are supported by the West.

They both are doing pretty well on the fossil fuel front as well.

So? Similar natural resources pits them more as rivals. The only resource Iran has in abundance which it is not in economic competition with Russia to export is Opium. Which Russia is less-than-fond about

Russia is increasingly becoming ally starved as well, as seen with the complete Herp Derp that is CSTO, their failure to make China friendlier to them, and pissing off India by trying to make Pakistan an ally. Iran still has a pretty strong military and is in direct conflict with the major U.S. Islamic allies Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Turkey, and to a lesser extent Afghanistan (which is another reason they like Pakistan atm).

No to most of these. CSTO isn't doing too shabby for itself? It's no Warsaw Pact or NATO, but it ain't exactly dead.

China is pretty friendly with them, considering every reason that they should regard each other as each others' dominant threat. India isn't so much pissed off with Russia, but Russia cannot fill the level of support the SU could guarantee India; hense out of the 2 choices available (China + the US) they top up their support with the side which they aren't in uneasy regional peace with (i.e. the US).

Most of those 'U.S.' allies are also Russian allies. Turkey and Russia have moved much closer, Russia's problem with Afghanistan is (moreso than with Iran) its Opium production which contributes to Russia's humongous domestic heroin problem; seeing an end to this by any means is their primary concern in the region. Russia and Saudi Arabia have pretty strong relations nowadays.

The Central Asian states don't have a mutually exclusive choice between China and Russia.

The problem with Egypt is that nobody knows what their foreign policy will be a year from now. Iran is for better or worse a stable place atm.

In other words, Russia can help shape Egyptian foreign policy in their image; Iran's has already been shaped in another.

Russia needs allies closer to home, not a couple in Latin America and a few in Africa kinda maybe. Iran would be a cheap one to pick up.

It doesn't need more allies 'closer to home' and if it did it would be a safer bet for it to start buttering up Ukraine/Georgia/Azerbaijan who share direct border access than it would enlisting the help of a country a whole sea away. But what Russia actually needs is allies further away. Syria was a good ally because it provided access to the Mediterranean. Egypt would do the same. The Persian Gulf is important, but for the ocean oil trade; thus it wouldn't be as useful a location to access for Russia as it is for the US, since most Russian oil goes overland.

Russia and China are starting to jockey for Central Asian allies, and China's got the stronger hand atm I think.

Not mutually exclusive, and it also doesn't necessarily mean that Russia and Iran would charge straight into each others' arms. China is also too supportive of Iran's untrustworthy neighbour Pakistan to ever go into their arms.

Russia supplying Iran with S-300/ S-400 missiles/ technicians/operators would go a long way toward making Iran best buddies with Russia.
It would certainly make the Israelis have a long hard think if the cost a single strike on Iran is worth the cost in aircraft/pilots.

Why would Russia do that when they have really good relations with Israel - I'd say better than Russia-Iran relations.

Moscow can’t afford to let Iran get friendlier with Beijing then themselves.

They won't.

Egypt was always a fair weather friend, Libya was just insane and oddly rather western in outlook and Syria is headed out the door.

Egypt under the toppled leader Mubarak was always a fair weather friend. Libya under the toppled leader Mubarak was often inconsistent in their orientation. Which is why now is a perfect chance for them to shape the new generation of leaders emerging from the Arab Spring to be friendlier with them.

Russian desperation in this regard can be seen in Russia trying to woo both India and Pakistan at the same time, and this stupid plan only drives India closer to the U.S. and Pakistan to China.

Erm, no? All 3 (Russia/the US/China) have been trying to woo all 3. China has the most to offer Pakistan and the least to offer India (plus border disputes with the latter), thus Pakistan is friendliest with China. India has more to gain from the US than from Russia; both India and Russia are on more or less equal footing and the additional military support India needs can't be picked up feasibly by Russia.

True. But Iran's primary opposition to the West stems from its perceived support of Israel, which Iran for stability's sake is obligated to oppose, along with its allies, due to its Shi'ite allies being in conflict with Israel. Should Assad dissappear out of the picture, Iran will feel less need to be conflict with Israel, and thus with the West as a whole.

No, Iran's opposition to Israel is to gain good reputation in the entire Muslim world - though most Muslim governments are supportive or indifferent to Israel, their peoples' are not. This is a way in which Iran can gain leverage against the governments of the rival Sunni sect, with its own Shia Islamic Revolution being the logical ideology to replace their governments.