Counting things in Lua is easy, as is making an event that has a chance of happening. Combining them is no more difficult. I believe these are fairly difficult to do in the Macro system. There was a civil war scenario that strung together 5 events with flags in order to count to 5 confederate infantry killed, and I think that you would have to combine a random turn trigger with another trigger to get a random chance, but I'm not totally sure about that.
The difficult part of all this is actually figuring out when a nuke has been launched so you can count it. A quick test tells me that onChooseDefender will be triggered by a nuclear attack if there is a unit defender, but onInitiateCombat and onUnitKilled will not be triggered. Also, onChooseDefender will not be triggered if an undefended city is nuked. So, you can easily count nukes used against defended cities and units in the field, but you will have to infer if a nuke is used against an undefended city. onChooseDefender will also happen even if SDI defense blocks the nuke, but that is an easy thing to check, since SDI always works. Perhaps
@TheNamelessOne will consider adding a 'nuke used' event in a future TOTPP release.
You would also have to program an event to stop the AI using nukes to account for the Armageddon event, since the AI won't know to stop.