Update 2 - 1503-1505
International Events
The Isbunan merchantry, alarmed by the rapidly shifting balance of power
p) in Andalusia, have thrown their weight on one side of the balance. Fearing that the collapse of the Muwahhidun would lead inevitably to a Liyunese or Saraqustan attack on Isbunah, and resentful of high-handed Sicilian commercial practices, the Isbunans entered an alliance with the Muwahhidun. The Muwahhidun agreed to dramatically reduce duties on Isbunan cargo, and prohibit corsair attacks on Isbunan shipping; the Isbunans agreed, in exchange, to lend their seapower to the Muwahhidun.
(-75,000 taris from Muwahhidun revenue, +40,000 taris to Isbunan revenue)
Early 1503 saw the Muwahhidun and Saraqustans involved in Isbunah-brokered peace negotiations. Surprisingly, an agreement was fairly quickly reached: the Muwahhidun would cede Valencia and pay an indemnity to the Saraqustans, with half the indemnity loaned from Isbunah. Faisal had, of course, no intention of actually honoring the peace treaty, intending to use it to buy time to resupply his forces and hopefully induce the Muwahhidun to transfer forces to Africa, and so refused to vacate his southernmost garrisons. He did not, however, consider that Al-Radi might be playing the same game. Truce on the Iberian front dragged through the spring and into summer, as the Muwahhidun pleaded difficulties organizing the transport of the indemnity. Finally, with time running out in the campaign season, Faisal had no choice but to announce the voiding of the treaty before the silver was transferred. In the end, Faisal got the delay he wanted out of this bit of farce, but so too did the Muwahhidun. Considering events in the east and south, Al-Radi likely got the best of that exchange (see below)
The revocation of Egypt's commercial privileges may prove to be the most significant event of the early century. The diplomatic landscape of the sea has been overturned, and Italy has at last begun to awake from its long torpor. First, the Romans sealed a defensive alliance with Sicily, seeking to protect themselves from a Egyptian reprisals. The Sicilian alignment with Rome, combined with Aimeric's failed council, convinced the Egyptian elites of Sicily's hostile intentions, and left the Egyptian crown with no choice but to seek a new alliance to replace the old Sicilian friendship. The Italians, meanwhile, were shocked into action by the alliance between their two oldest enemies. All but the most determinedly insular municipalities saw the Roman-Sicilian agreement as a dagger pointed straight at the heart of Italy, and when the Egyptians came calling the Italian emperor was only too happy to reach an alliance. The Egyptian break with Rome also led directly to an Egyptian alliance with the Chobanids.
The Lotharingians and the Danes have agreed to a marriage alliance, betrothing Albrecht's young granddaughter to Erik's heir. A grandiose engagement ceremony was held at Aachen, at which the Danes additionally recognized Albrecht as the rightful Duke of Saxony.
(+1 Lotharingian Prestige)
The Poles have attempted to shore up their influence in their nominal vassals to the west by organizing a joint military command structure. The Lusatians and Polabians, somewhat alarmed by Lotharingia's invasion of Saxony, were only too happy, at first, to agree to what looked like a stronger guarantee of Polish support. They were much less happy when they learned that the Poles intended the military forces of Polabia and Lusatia to be under solely Polish direction. The Count of Lusatia and the Duke of Polabia outright refused to go along with such a scheme, on the reasonable grounds that: a) Polish generals didn't understand the strategic, geographic or tactical problems of warfare in the west; b) the ability to respond to threats without waiting for the go-ahead from Poznan was the whole raison d'etre of the western provinces; and c) the Poles hardly had any troops in the west most of the time. King Jan didn't really have any means of forcing them to go along with it, and the Polish nobility had at any rate begun to become suspicious that the whole thing was a tyrannical plot, so he had to drop that portion of the scheme.
Algirdas has secured an alliance with Poland, by the time-honored Lithuanian stratagem of holding up the promise of conversion. In exchange for Polish military help against Zygimantas, Algirdas allowed Catholic missionaries to proselytize among the Lithuanian nobility. Of course, Algirdas didn't force the nobles to listen or convert, not that he could have anyway. The Catholics weren't killed, but had essentially no success at converting pagans, and by the end of 1505 were spending most of their time sniping at their Orthodox counterparts.
Nizhny Novgorod has continued attempts to entice Horde nobles over the border, but with much less success than previously, as the beglerbeg has cracked down on defectors. Consequently, tension is rising between the border Tatars and Nizhny Novgorod.
What looked like a major realignment of Red Sea politics has fizzled, as the Zabidis have backed down from confrontation with the Ethiopians. The Zabidis reached a treaty with Asnaf Sagad, in which they agreed to pay a substantial indemnity, and the Ethiopians agreed to turn over their ships to Zabid. Zabid then cunningly didn't pay the stipulated indemnity, though they didn't restart the raids either. So after that little interlude Zabid is right back where it was in 1500, except with fewer friends in Ethiopia.
(-1 Zabid Prestige)
The Ardabilids have intensified their efforts to make friends in East Africa. They've established a relatively major mission on, of all places, Socotra, where it has made some progress towards convincing the locals of the virtues of Dhahabism. They have additionally despatched another, larger expedition to East Africa, this time planned and carried out by high-ranking clerics. This expedition has been less successful; high-ranking Dhahabi clerics tend to be too inflexible to make good missionaries.
(+small mission on Socotra)
Domestic Events
The Gascon crown has endowed a university at Bordeu, to general approbation, though more patronage will be necessary if it's ever to become a really significant center of education.
(+1 Gascon Prestige)
As Ygo of Frisia spends ever more time with his alchemists and artists, the day-to-day administration of the Principality has fallen increasingly to Ygo's heir, Klaes. Under Klaes' direction, the government has focused on water management projects, and on encouraging trade, both along the Rhine and with Iberia. Trade with Iberia is picking up somewhat, though the League's new close alliance with Liyun has limited Frisian inroads there. The various efforts to improve Frisia's canals and dikes have likewise been successful, though have had only a minor impact; a major land-reclamation scheme would require a lot more money and cooperation from local interests. Meanwhile, Ygo - in between extensive experiments with Olfinga, his favorite alchemist – has been beautifying his palaces. As his hopes for finding the Philosopher's Stone fade, Ygo has begun to lay the groundwork for the construction of a medical academy, to search for other means of extending his life.
(+1 Frisian Prestige, +5,000 taris to Frisian revenue)
The Danish royal family have spent a great deal of time and money on trying to look kingly. Erik has endowed a number of monasteries, while Cristina has been publicly charitable towards the poor of Copenhagen. Meanwhile, artistic patronage efforts scored something of a coup: after Saxony's fall (see below), the Danes convinced von Soest to come to Copenhagen. In more practical affairs the Danes were somewhat less successful. A planned survey of the royal domain achieved very little, since no funds were allocated to actually perform said survey. An attempt to levy an extraordinary tithe on the population met with extremely strong resistance, and the crown was ultimately forced to accept a much smaller tax than they'd hoped.
(+1 Danish Prestige, -1 Nye Maend Confidence)
Isbunah has expanded their new bureau of the navy, developing it further along the lines of a Norman admiralty. The Isbunan Naval Draft was given responsibility for overseeing ship construction and the recruitment of sailors. So far the bureaucrats haven't interfered enough with the existing structures to really offend anyone, but central oversight of the emirate's naval forces is definitely on the rise.
The Muwahhidun, under serious military pressure, have undertaken a series of reforms of their Andalusian domains, aimed mostly at squeezing more money out. Al-Radi, having already killed a lot of Andalusian elites and possessing a large, loyal army in Andalusia, decided he might as well finish what he'd started. In early 1503, while truce held on the Saraqustan front, Al-Radi cracked down hard on the remaining Andalusian nobility, expelling most of them from administration and confiscating their assets. This provoked a fresh round of revolts, of course, but Al-Radi was fully prepared to handle them. They were nearly all crushed before becoming a real threat, though a group around Maridah held out into 1505. The virtual elimination of the Andalusian administration posed a problem, as there were too few loyal and educated bureaucrats to fill the gaps. So Al-Radi decided to steal a good idea from Saraqusta, and parcelled out askari-type iqta grants to Berbers and securely loyal Andalusians. There have been some pains with the new system, but the new class of Andalusian askaris has already proved its military worth, and might offer a long-term solution to the problem of governing Andalusia.
(+600,000 taris to Muwahhidun treasury, -50,000 taris from Muwahhidun expenses, -30,000 taris from Muwahhidun revenue, -1 Andalusians Strength, -1 Andalusians Confidence, -1 Dhahabi clergy Strength, +Askaris (Muwahhidun), -12 Muwahhidun Levy Companies)
Unusually, international developments have impacted Italian municipal politics. The Sicilian-Roman alliance provoked a debate in municipal circles over the correct course of action. The non-interventionist stance of the hardline Milanese was unpopular with the Partito Ambrosiano, and the Neapolitans took advantage of their disunity. The debate rapidly swung in Naples' favour, and the high profile defection of Florence to the Neapolitans sealed victory for the southerners. The Partito Ambrosiano is presently in the bit of leadership crisis, and for the moment the Neapolitans dominate municipal politics. Imperial influence is at its highest point for a generation, and the municipalities granted a decent-sized tax levy with astonishingly little fuss.
(-1 Partito Ambrosiano Strength, +1 Partito di Napoli Strength, + 1 Partito di Napoli Confidence)
The Sicilians, determined to crush the Muwahhidun, levied a forced loan on the Sicilian merchantry, collected extraordinary excise taxes, and raised a huge new army. These measures were unpopular with the merchants, of course, but when Sicilian plans went badly awry the army they raised turned out to be invaluable.
(-1 Sicilian merchantry Confidence)
Lotharingia has been swept up in the craze for scholarship and weapons that seems to be sweeping Europe. Albrecht has endowed a large new college in the university at Aachen, and has stepped up patronage of the weapon industry. Unlike most of his peers, however, Albrecht has decided to focus on the raw materials side of the equation, and has been encouraging iron and saltpeter extraction. Lotharingia doesn't have any real natural deposits of saltpeter, but artificial production is increasing.
(+1 Lotharingian Prestige)
The Bohemians have focused on domestic construction, and particularly on increasing the quality of the major thoroughfares between the center and the borders. This hasn't yielded the increased trade the Bohemians had hoped, but easing transit with the regions can't hurt. The Bohemians also continued their program of fortification in the east.
In response to Catholic appeals, the Polish crown ordered a crack-down on Gaborite influence along the Hungarian border. The Hungarian missionaries that the Church had particularly wanted to target were nowhere to be found, having apparently vacated Poland entirely, so the Poles had to be content with burning a few local Gaborites. King Jan had hoped to end things there, but men on the ground, egged on by the local clergy, got rather carried away; something of a witchhunt ensued along the border, and the tiny Gaborite minority was mostly either killed or driven into Hungary.
(-Polish Gaborites)
The Hungarians have continued and expanded their patronage program. Patronage of individual artists has continued; more significantly, Stephen has endowed a university in Esztergom. This is so far not much more than a vanity project, but it's a start; in particular, the establishment has gone some way to challenging the standard Papist propaganda of Gaborites as ignorant, anti-intellectual peasants, which surely can't hurt.
(+1 Hungarian Prestige)
After pulling out of the Lithuanian war (at least mostly; see below), the Volynians have focused on patronage of artists and, of course, gunpowder experts. The latter are so much in demand at the moment that Volynian money didn't go very far, but a couple were persuaded to immigrate. They have also stepped up construction of a cathedral in Vladimir, though it's still far from finished. Less pleasantly, the Prince decided to blame the failure of the Lithuanian campaign on his generals, and particularly on the Tatars. And so he had his generals publicly flayed. This went over like a lead balloon with the Tatars, and subsequent attempts to get the Tatars to go someplace other than home were scarcely better received.
(+1 Volynian Prestige, -1 Tatar Confidence)
Makuria has moved closer to its seemingly inevitable civil war. The Alwans continued to throw lots of money around, and attempts by Kernabes to separate Alwa and el-Adwab mostly failed. A crisis began to develop in 1505, when the Great King Kernabes suffered a horrific hunting accident. With Kernabes incapacitated and clearly with not long to live, frenzied maneuvering for the succession broke out. Kernabes favored nephew, Semamum, a Sicilian Catholic, had seemed sure to follow his uncle on the throne, but with Kernabes out of the picture Coptic interests, including Alwa, began to rally to a Coptic nephew, David. With David's popularity always growing, Semamum resorted to Norman backing to shore up his position. Things came to a head when Semamum's Norman allies had David arrested late in 1505 for plotting to kill the Great King. But before David could be executed, Alwan retainers managed to break him out of Dongola and spirited him away to Alwa. It seems likely that civil war will break out as soon as Kernabes finally expires.
The Ethiopians, in addition to continuing their extensive patronage efforts, have taken steps to shore up their position on the coast, using Muslim corvee labor. Massawa has been rebuilt and refortified, and has already regained its former prosperity. A series of watchtowers, built with imperial funds and manned by imperial soldiers, has been constructed along the coast to provide warning of any future raids. These projects have been overseen by Asnaf Sagad in person, as the negus spent most of his time along the coast. This was not a popular move with the bahir negash; the defense of the coast is supposed to be his responsibility, after all.
(+1 Ethiopian Prestige, -1 Bahir Negash Confidence)
The Ardabilids, judging their toll-road project a success, have poured more money and effort into expanding it, though this time they have placed a greater emphasis on making sure that the Shah gets his cut. Combined with an increase in customs posts, revenue has increased slightly, though of course this hasn't been entirely popular with the people.
(+45,000 taris to Ardabilid revenue, +5,000 taris to Ardabilid expenses)
Word of the Ardabilid toll-roads has reached all the way to Friland, where Prince Matthias was so taken with the concept he decided he simply had to replicate it in Friland. There's less trade in Friland's interior than in Ardabil's, and the population is sparser, so the Frilanders toll-roads have been slower to construct and less profitable than Ardabil's, but a good bit of progress has been made, and the thing can't find a thing to complain about.
(+5,000 taris to Friland's revenue)
As he's busy with the war, Zygimantas has installed his son Andrius as regent. Andrius has not been a particularly effective regent, and has been heavily influenced by East Danish advisors, but at least he's ever more closely associated with the throne.
With victory in the civil war perhaps within his grasp (see below), Algirdas has been concerned of late with projecting a properly kingly appearance. The crown's sacral duties have been strengthened, the conciliar function of the nobility has been reemphasized, and a law code published. Along with the interest in the crown's image have gone efforts to shore up the succession, and associate Liudas with government. The efforts have been generally fairly successful, particularly considering Algirdas' military successes.
(+1 Prince's Prestige)
The Sultan of Zabid has raised customs duties by a small but significant percentage; while unpopular with the people you'd expect, this has raised revenue. He has also decided that Zabid should try to shut Egyptian merchants out of the Bab al-Mandab. Since this has been Zabid's policy for at least a quarter century, this decree has met with incomprehension.
(+120,000 taris to Zabidi revenue, -1 Aden merchantry Confidence)
Delhi has deployed a new class of bureaucrat, the pratinidhi. Drawn from Delhi's state school, they've been sent to the provinces, officially to oversee the raising of extraordinary taxation. Some of Delhi's regional feudals were upset by such an invasion of their prerogatives, but bribery from the center smoothed over most of the difficulties, and the pratinidhi turned out to not actually do anything particularly annoying. In Delhi itself, observers have noticed the development, thanks to Garbhasena's efforts, of a growing party of competent, well-educated, and extremely pro-Altai bureaucrats.
(+50,000 taris to Delhi's expenses)
Mandukhai has continued her bureaucratic reform policies, with more success than previously. The level of competency in the bureaucracy is rising, as talented foreigners begin to join up, and some Chinese are beginning to twig on to the Yenogretic schtick. The chief Mongol policy of these few years, however, was an attempt to secure the loyalty of the local elites in general and the Chinese in particular via a massive program of bribery. Most of the steppe peoples were fairly loyal to begin with, so impact there was limited. The program had more effect in China, where it went some ways towards counteracting the various attempts by Mongol neighbours to suborn the Chinese gentry. Of course, inclusion in government and administration would probably be necessary to bring the Chinese completely onside with the Mongols.
(+1 Chinese gentry Confidence)
The Haishu have spent a great deal of money on compiling and disseminating a new, official version of the Confucian canon. Alongside this new version, the Emperor commissioned and published a series of commentaries, which predictably argued that the Mongols were bad, Confucius was a little bit better, and the Nanhai were corrupt and immoral. This has certainly made Li Qilai look pious and moral, and has helped to shore up bureaucratic opinion in favor of the Haishu, but the merchantry are slightly alarmed by the implications of an official focus on conservative Confucian values.
(+1 Haishu Prestige, -1 Merchantry Confidence)
The Nanhai, as part of their increasing focus on gunpowder weapons, have constructed a large , state-operated gunpowder factory in Sichuan.
(+15,000 taris to Nanhai expenses)
The Yamato Emperor has been working hard to increase trade with the continent, but doesn't seem to have much of a plan for how precisely to do that. Attempts have been made to develop the imperial-controlled port at Osaka into a hub for trade with China, but have mostly failed. The real problem seems to be that Japan doesn't have anything in particular worth trading.