SGOTM 11 - One Short Straw

[LowtherCastle]

^ Espionage ratio.

and........?

 

[mystyfly]

Since the ratio is about 1 zara only knows us. If he met any other AI he'd spend 50/50 on us and them so we'd have more EPs on him than he has on us.

 

[shyuhe]

Espionage ratios in semi-isolation are generally 1-1 since both parties are investing equally in espionage against each other. If he has less EP against us than vice versa, that means he has met another AI. Without worst enemies, AI tend to distribute their EP spending evenly.

edit: x-post with mysty.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Okay. Now, when I did a few test runs with bbp's save, I noticed Zara running 20% espionage, so wouldn't that enable him to keep his ratio up against us, even if he were investing in other AIs?

 

[Silu]

At this point 20% EP slider is about 1-2 EP, so the Palace contribution is still bigger - it would noticeably differ from 50/50 if he knew other AIs.

 

[mushroomshirt]

edit: I am OK with LC's "safest path" for warrior 1 though I would send warrior 2 clear the river area before going back fogbusting west or north.

I also like LC's "safest path"

 

[Mutineer]

The fact that Zara does not know any other AI does not tell as that there no any connection to other land mass with other Ai's. Other AI's did not get units there yet.

 

[mushroomshirt]

The fact that Zara does not know any other AI does not tell as that there no any connection to other land mass with other Ai's. Other AI's did not get units there yet.

Yes, I think we all agree. LC's safest path from this post is to immediately send the warrior SE around Zara's capital to see what is on the other side (if possible) before border pop.

Although LC calls it "risky", second warrior could go to the forested hill 2NW of Zara if needed.

Again, this image is from LC's post...

 

[LowtherCastle]

Does anyone have any dates for when barbs start spawning/crossing cultural borders on emperor.

Barbs will cross borders when there are 2n+1 cities on the map, with n being the number of civilizations. In my test emperor games, I did not see any barbs cross borders until ~1000 BC or even later.

Animals will spawn instead of barbs until there are 11 cities. (animals as long as #cities < #players * 3/2)

The number of barbs will be #unowned-tiles / 35, which looks to be 4 or 5, but that depends on our landmass.

The number of barb cities will be #unowned-tiles / 100, which looks to be 1.

We could fogbust pretty well with about 3 units, letting the barbs that spawn to the NE attack Zara.

Some good links:
When barbs enter borders
When will barbs attack
When is that wave of barb attacks?

 

[mystyfly]

Silu?

 

[Silu]

Sorry, I've been so busy (school & May Day) that I thought I don't have the proper time and concentration to put into the SGOTM. Dunno if I still do.

- So the consensus on the warr moving is to take LC's "safest" path, along the south side of Aksum? And have the second warrior check the rest of the east river tiles and bust somewhere in northwest?

- Worker farms second Corn (1t of road on the river plains on the way), then 1 chop, then mines the Silver? What to do between the farm and the chop? Farm is ready in 8 I believe, BW takes 10.

- Warriors until size4, then Settler?

- Sorry, I'll try to get a grip on this...

In other news, that's definitely coast just outside Aksum in north, so if we get to the green hill river area first he'll be almost forced to expand to the other direction.

Is there any documentation about the trigger for a dow based on a "I am boxed in by a human" factor?

I'll look into that, my experience says that AIs DoW is VERY much more likely if they want to expand and can't.

 

[LowtherCastle]

@Silu:

Looks fine to me.

I would recommend breaking your turnset in two and stopping at BW, without moving the worker yet. (Stop earlier if TSHTF or you think we should discuss something.) We'll have a great overview of the terrain then. Who knows, maybe we'll want to tech something other than The Wheel.

If you're going to move Warrior1 SE, then remain flexible. My hunch is that he'll dead-end pretty quickly and then you'll have to decide what's better--he goes back around to the north or he defogs the river area and Warrior2 goes NE. If Warrior1 doesn't see Aksum on a plains hill, then we knww it's on a resource.

Good luck!!!

 

[LowtherCastle]

Is there any documentation about the trigger for a dow based on a "I am boxed in by a human" factor? Silu? Bestsss? (OK no chance he helps us here ) Anyone?

I'll look into that, my experience says that AIs DoW is VERY much more likely if they want to expand and can't.

I know of two posts that seem to cover the topic fairly thoroughly:

When an AI will go to war by Niklas
When an AI will go to war by DanF

The one detail I'm not clear on is how to determine what our power is compared to the AIs. If we want Zara to DoW us, then it would be nice ot have our power just a bit below the threshold so that we can have enough firepower to defend ourselves against his initial assault, while we gather the forces to subdue him...

 

[mushroomshirt]

The one detail I'm not clear on is how to determine what our power is compared to the AIs. If we want Zara to DoW us, then it would be nice ot have our power just a bit below the threshold so that we can have enough firepower to defend ourselves against his initial assault, while we gather the forces to subdue him...

Can you just look at the in-game graph...

 

[Silu]

Yeah I know about the DanF post, but the whole matter is so complicated that I often find it easier to actually read the code than someone's interpretation about it

And don't worry about our power, on Emperor it's almost impossible to pass the no-DoW power threshold in the early-mid game if you don't go for an all-in rush or the Great Wall. In any case in semi-isolation we will quickly find out the power ratio through espionage. EDIT: X-post - already do!

 

[Silu]

BTW, I'd still like to know what did you guys plan on the Worker doing after the second farm and before BW is in? Or is BW in earlier as we grow? And is there some turn-by-turn notes made based on some test save other than LC's comparison of the 4 build paths?

 

[mdy]

BTW, I'd still like to know what did you guys plan on the Worker doing after the second farm and before BW is in? Or is BW in earlier as we grow? And is there some turn-by-turn notes made based on some test save other than LC's comparison of the 4 build paths?

It depends whether getting a third settler out very quickly or working the silver mine is more important. I am inclined to build the silver mine next, but if I remember correctly there is only one turn between the completion of the second farm and the discovery of bronze working so we could move the worker two tiles towards the silver mine and then pause to decide what to do next which would keep our options open.

 

[LowtherCastle]

BW in 10t, worker moves once (we don't have TW yet), then farms 8t, so there are no available wkr turns before BW.

 

[mushroomshirt]

BW in 10t, worker moves once (we don't have TW yet), then farms 8t, so there are no available wkr turns before BW.

I am too stupid to figure this out on my own, so I just tried a test save - attached. Sure enough there are no extra worker turns.

I wonder about what tile to work at size 3... silver mine or forested grass? Forested grass would get us to size 4 a bit faster I think.

EDIT: I guess we should probably manage so that pop 4 and third warrior happen at the same time. Maybe this is what LC was saying a few posts back... (and in his response below! I agree this makes the most sense)

 

[LowtherCastle]

If we work forested grass for those two turns, then after BW, we'll want to work the plains forest for two turns. That finishes the warrior at growth to pop4. We want to start building the settler asap in all likelihood. If Silu stops at BW, then the governor should handle everything up till then.

I don't see any big value in a couple of coins at this point.