SGOTM 12 - One Short Straw

LowtherCastle · Nov 20, 2010

Just to make sure we're all on the same page:

We DON'T give or trade anyone PAPER for any reason, any time, till after we complete Liberalism.*

Now that Gandhi has Philosphy, Paper is our only hope of slowing him down from beelining Liberalism. Roosy is researching way too fast to risk giving it to him, because Gandhi will trae Philo after we steal it from him.

*I've learned that one can't assume anything in Succession Games.

babybluepants · Nov 20, 2010

LowtherCastle said:
*I've learned that one can't assume anything in Succession Games.

Some things you can assume... :lol:

Especially when it concerns myself and Liberalism.

I don't have time to play the set right now, but I played 1t earlier just to see what happens with DG. No attacks or even visible troop movement IBT, he still refuses to talk and he... LOST TOURS!

Otherwise, I just made the resource and tech trades and MM-d cities as per plan. I canceled the 4 one-sided deals with Roos and took 2gpt for deer. Not sure if we still need to be gifting resources? Might as well give him another 1-2 for now, to speed up the +2, or do we know how many reso-turns we've already had?

LowtherCastle · Nov 20, 2010

We can now freely conduct gpt deals with Churchill. We need to keep an eye on what dG does with his stack. We hope it will go toward Tours asap. If not, soon we need to put plenty of threat on Marseilles to hoefully draw it back. We'll have to leave dG with Marseilles, I suppose, unless CHurchill goes after it too. We may be in a race to Orleans...

Mitchum · Nov 20, 2010

I ran some tests and this is what I got. I only focused on our cities, not Gandhi's.

1 pop - 2nd religion - 15 failed
5 pop - 2nd religion - 16 failed (population doesn't seem to have an effect)
5 pop - 2nd religion - space bar 5 times (skip turn) - 9 failed (hmmm...)
5 pop - 3rd religion - 19 failed
5 pop - 3rd religion - space bar 5 times (skip turn) - 18 failed (no difference here)

So it looks like I got slightly better results when spreading the second religion after 5 skips (I actually hit the space bar for each missionary 5 times, not just hit enter to end turn). However, when I tried the same thing with the second religion, the 5 skips didn't have an effect???

Any way, I think the formula that LC found is the definitive equation. Population and skipping turns don't have an effect.

MYTH BUSTED!!... kind of...

LowtherCastle · Nov 21, 2010

Mitchum said:
(I actually hit the space bar for each missionary 5 times, not just hit enter to end turn). However, when I tried the same thing with the second religion, the 5 skips didn't have an effect???

I wasn't sure about this either, so the first time I also stuck in a spy, to see if it accumulated the -50% and it did, even when only hitting <enter>.

LowtherCastle · Nov 21, 2010

babybluepants said:
Spy

Think a Confu Miss for Bahamas might be better? We'd just have to figure out how to get it there, which should be a problem. Poprush a galley in Cuba after the granary or something.

babybluepants · Nov 21, 2010

Played another 6t and took a break as proposed. Save's uploaded.

I made two small mistakes - forgetting to switch the queue in Siberia (built wealth instead of wonder) and forgetting to OB w Churchill. Luckily, we could OB again after the next DOW. I also took a risk by my standards in taking 6 Paris defenders with 6 maces @ 13%. The worst odds were 75% w CR2 against a shock axe. I took an immediate CF just in case, as we only have one injured mace in the city.

Confu spread in GP was successful. I did build another spy in Pigs. Mao's spreading Confu to his main cities...

Trades as agreed upon + one with Stalin for cash + banana for 4gpt with Churchill. I think that's all. Didn't see any sabotage production at more than 100-ish hammers. Roosevelt got CS and Gandhi got Feudalism, btw. Edit: I also refused a demand from Stalin.

Queued LH's in Cuba and Bermuda. Maybe we should get a galley from one of those. The explorer WB is parked near Bermuda, as I didn't know what to do with it. There's an oil platform north of Bermuda. :crazyeye:

Spoiler :

babybluepants · Nov 21, 2010

Judging by the graphs, it's another 2-horse race now. Xteam obviously settled Moscow on the horse and had an awful opening, but they seem like they might leapfrog everyone else. Our score graph is staying just ahead of Ducks, with power even and culture behind. I think the difference in culture (ca. 500 pts) is Oracle (that alone is 200 roughly) and earlier REX.

Mitchum · Nov 21, 2010

Nice work, bbp!! :goodjob:

The Buddhist shrine is giving us +12 gpt. Not bad. Too bad the granary and library didn't survive.

When do you plan to play forward

BTW, I'll likely have to swap with someone. I'll be very busy until a week from Monday.

babybluepants · Nov 21, 2010

Mitchum said:
When do you plan to play forward

Actually, I'm not super sure why I thought it was good idea to stop. Except that I spent 1.5 hrs on the 6t and got a bit tired.

We could just go right through the Uni whips and Orleans capture. I think later today maybe. Do we want a galley and where? I thought I'd put the Cuba OF into Moai, and Bermuda could build a galley. (This is actually a screw-up on my part. I meant to stagger these whips, so I can OF into Moai in both.)

Edit:
BTW, our 6xp axe didn't see any action. After Tours fell, DG's stack re-appeared in Marseilles and there's been no unit movement at all aside from an archer moving into Paris. I think his back is broken now. Orleans and Lyons can't have more than 2 units each, maybe 3 with a random wandering one. Churchill's Tours stack had 3 axes, 2 archers and about 5 spears. He's been sitting on that hill near Marseilles with two units for several turns, and just started moving another pair of units north. I don't think Orleans is in danger, so I'd move on it after all maces are healed (also have a 3rd cat on the way). If it somehow came to that (I doubt it), and Churchill actually endangered Orleans, would we want to negotiate peace? At what kind of cost?

babybluepants · Nov 21, 2010

We do have an 8xp and a 7xp mace now, so I don't think HE will be a problem. I'll try to pick off a unit coming to reinforce Orleans in the open. We'll be building HE after Oxford, though.

LowtherCastle · Nov 21, 2010

Excellent work, bbp! Looking good.

Roosy and Gandhi swapped Feudalism and CS, of course. Duh. I should have thought of that. Stupid me. We could have had Feudalim ourselves. Oh well, hopefully we'll get it soon enough. Roosy is very dangerous now that he has the Paper prereq. We'll want to hold off on stealing Philo till the last minute, so hopefully Gandhi won't trade it to Roosy.

I assume Paris built walls?

Guangzhou built an Intelligence Agency for us!!! Right on, Comrade Mao!!! Nanjing still still didn't pop its boorders. :mad:

Paris has a great military instructor! Perfect for a trireme.

I'll post some thoughts in a little while. Then I think you could just continue on.

LowtherCastle · Nov 21, 2010

Priorities:
1. Our Shanghai attack can be much sooner than I was first thinking. We only really need 1 more 5XP cat + 4 cats. Plus a trireme and another galley. I'd play until Paris comes out of resistance, then we can plan that carefully. So Fish should go uni-cat.
2. EPs + failed gold
Siberia: uni - OF into NE/HE - 1h into COnfuMiss(fish/corn) - 2pop OF into NE/HE
GPFarm: hire spyspec!, uni - 1hConfuMiss(2pop) with OF into NE/HE
Cuba: lh(1pop) - galley(2pop)
Bah: work mine(s) not eng, uni - ch
Ber: lh - forge
Rheims: lib - forge
Ban: gran - forge
Paris: trireme(2pop) - galley(2pop)

-----------
Details:
1. BRING THE CONFU MISSIONARY HOME!!! (OBs with Churchill!) That's why I hate clicking on
Sleep...

2. I'd work the Moscow farm rather than the hill. Increases the growth rate by ~60%.

3. We need chs everywhere possible and working spies. Hire one in GP Farm immediately. I'd rather pop a GSPy than anything else at this point. We'd probably be able to steal GP from Roosy by the time we needed it. That would be killer (but unlikely).

4. No need to risk our spy in dGLand. It can peek at Orleans on the rice tile and exit back SW each turn. It should NOT end its turn in his culture.

5. Definitely turn one of our Paris Maces into a Medic1. Send the cats with mace escort asap. We want to capture Orleans before Churchill gives dG a bunch of free XP.

6. Two workers should go to Paris-1S to scrub (after pasturing pigs), so Paris doesn't lose any population when it comes out of resistance. Must be done in 6t!!!

7. gpt with Mao and dG

8. Once Roosy gets Optics we should buy his maps for 5g every 2-3 turns for circumnavigation.

LowtherCastle · Nov 21, 2010

This is getting very interesting. As long as we beat Gandhi and Roosy to LIberalism, we should be able to let those two reserach like crazy and rock and roll with EPs. Exciting!

Mitchum · Nov 21, 2010

LowtherCastle said:
This is getting very interesting. As long as we beat Gandhi and Roosy to LIberalism, we should be able to let those two reserach like crazy and rock and roll with EPs. Exciting!

Don't forget that we still have the good old fashioned way to get techs: trading...

babybluepants · Nov 21, 2010

Played another 4t and paused again. I was gonna do another 1-2t tonight (we should pop the Moscow GP at least). DG has 3sw+3axe+1arch in Orleans, all Combat1. All but one of our Paris maces are done healing. I think I should redeclare this turn. I'd like your opinion on:
1) CR2 charge or Accuracy for third catapult?
2) Use southern mace in Orleans?
3) Possibly upgrade C2 axe. Hate to waste cash, though.

He still has a lot of units, is all.

Churchill hasn't done anything, so I felt it was better to just wait 'till full health.

I traded Calendar to Churchill for 120g.

New York was building something big (200+ hammers), btw.

Mao has 3LB in Nanjing and 2LB+Arch in Shanghai.

Spoiler :

LowtherCastle · Nov 21, 2010

Siberia: Careful. You're set to put 3h into the Confu Miss, which means no 2pop. Max is 1 or 2h for a 2pop.

---------------

Orleans:

I wouldn't even attack with the cat. We want 4 accuracy cats asap for Mao, as you know.

How are you going to defend Paris? This turn you could finish healing the mace, while most of the others leave. They catch up a turn later. Meanwhile, you could send the Pigs chariot to the galley to Paris...

Imo, you can send most melee from Rheims to Orleans, but maybe leave an axe behind and leave some unit on the gems, 2 tile from Marseilles (chariot?). Don't forget that you and Churchill are threatening Marseilles, so he's not likely to send those units away, in my experience anyway.

No upgrade.

Your odds:

CRII mace versus C1axe, no city defense: 87.7
CRII mace versus C1arch, no city defense: 84.88
CRII mace versus C1sword, no city defense: 99.64

New YorK: We either quickly build MoM or hope he's not building it. Worst comes to worst, luckily it's the closest city to Mao and easiest to capture.

Good luck!

bcool · Nov 21, 2010

bbp, why not take a few of the swords and an axe from the south as well to assault Lyons?

Churchill's units will likely prevent him from attacking us and you will have an axe and the chariots to delay him if he moves on us.

Anyone have any idea why Calcutta is on the top 5 cities page?

bcool · Nov 21, 2010

If you leave Paris empty, DeG will likely empty his cities and send them towards Paris. You could then kill them in the field. Combat odds would be significantly better, but we would likely lose Paris (and quickly recapture it killing unfortified units there even if a good part of the stack makes it would be significantly easier after you kill some in the field)

However we would lose significant population in Paris...

LowtherCastle · Nov 21, 2010

Maybe the best possibility is to go with your initial thought of making the third cat CRII and attacking with it before the maces. Then the odds of losing any maces goes down significantly. Since those are already CRII maces and they're more expensive, that might be the wisest choice.

SGOTM 12 - One Short Straw

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