SGOTM 15 - Unusual Suspects

[SteelHorse]

Yikes!

Problems in relative order.
1. Hatty Stack - Assume he/she is ready to attack.
2. Tech Speed - In the dumper.
3. Hammy Stack - Manageable.

Thoughts on each.
1. Need to make peace with Toku. No value continuing need to save troops for Hatty defense. Can try moving the two Axes closer to Kago to see if that makes him more willing to offer some tech, but probably better to send them to Kyoto.

Retreat troops to kyoto. Build some walls there. Leave Tokyo undefended. If the missionary can get there in 3 before Hatty attack, it would be awesome, but i wouldn't count on it. Whip some archers for Kyoto defense. Temples can wait. Use cats on Hatty stack when it arrives at Kyoto. Once stack is depleted we should be ok. Trick is to survive initial onslaught.

2. We need an ally to get someone to trade with us. Toku would be good but must get must get him to convert. Without gifting an infected city, i dont see how. if we cant get east of the mountain perhaps, we build the fish city south of drona and infect and gift.

3. I think we sould crush his stack, build a city 1N of his current stack infect and settle for peace gifting that city.

Then use the AP to our advantage.

 

[ChrisShaffer]

If we can gift a Hindu Tokyo to Toku...

 

[Trystero]

In terms of Hindu infections, we have 1 completed and unmoved missionary in Bolly. He'd take this turn and 4 more to infect Tokyo; this turn plus 3 more to infect Kyoto.

We also have a missionary, en route, 1 turn from Osaka, who could be at Tokyo in 3 turns.

 

[kcd_swede]

Hatty will never decide to DoW at Pleased--any way to know when/if she was ever Cautious with Toku? Regardless, I think we have to assume she's going to attack us.

You are right about Hatty. But Hatshegawa will have the personality of a Tokugawa. Tokugawa will gladly attack at Pleased. And Tokugawa tends to attack his closest neighbor regardless of the diplo score compared to another farther target.

So if Hatshegawa did go into WHEOOHRN (selection of war target done at that point) before Tokyo fell, it is conceivable to me that Egypt is targetting Japan in an opportunistic dogpile (and was hoping to grab Tokyo on the cheap). There is also the question of whether or not Hatshegawa had OB agreements at the time which would be needed to even make us an eligible target. I think he did, but if he didn't we would safely conclude that Japan is the target. But we aren't getting that kind of luck in this game, so the only reasonable assumption is to plan for being DOWed by Hatshegawa either this or next turn.

Since Tokyo has no culture defense, he might attack with the WC's right away, IBT.

It sure would be nice to be able to hold Tokyo long enough to infect it. War experts... do you think this would be too costly?

Anyhow... peace with Toku will eliminate a deal of war weariness. Its not yet something that's forcing our hand, but something to add to the equation.

 

[AAA]

This is sorta moving out of my level. By all means, to those who wish to exploit the AP...godspeed.

In anycase...Sankore and some ESP will make us fly in tech, and that's a given. So, my question then is this - can we retreat to Kyoto, build a horde of city defense promoted archers to defend the northern and eastern 'gates', tech up till our horde is unstoppable, and go forth?

My take on this is that we will never go forth. Kyoto is as far east as we go, and neil designed it to be that way. Can we still whip? If we can, get a Islam missionary out of Tokyo ASAP, because soon it will be Hatty's. We are going to need a monstrous stack of highly promoted archers/longbowmen/riflemen in Kyoto to absorb wave after wave after wave, but Kyoto is designed to allow for this.
Get peace at any cost short of a city with Hammy, so we can build up our forces and defenses and then go smack Hammy.
This is going to be a very violent rather long cultural game.

 

[Xcalibrator]

3. I think we sould crush his stack, build a city 1N of his current stack infect and settle for peace gifting that city.

I'm not clear on which stack you're referring to. All I recall is a lone axe west of our two stacks and two units in Kago.

We also have a missionary, en route, 1 turn from Osaka, who could be at Tokyo in 3 turns.

Ah, missed that--that'll help a little. We might just be able to hold off Hatty long enough to infect Tokyo, and not suffer too badly from WW. In any case, having 2 missionaries already built is good.

You are right about Hatty. But Hatshegawa will have the personality of a Tokugawa. ... Since Tokyo has no culture defense, he might attack with the WC's right away, IBT. ... It sure would be nice to be able to hold Tokyo long enough to infect it. War experts... do you think this would be too costly?

D'oh! Right, personality of Toku, personality of Toku! Yes, my movement/retreat_or_counterattack plan was assuming Hatty would attack with chariots immediately. The point was that we can hold Tokyo at least for the coming turn, and maybe longer. There isn't really much of an alternative because of the way the roads are laid out--even if we want to retreat immediately, the fastest/safest way to do it is to move our front units into Tokyo.

My take on this is that we will never go forth. Kyoto is as far east as we go, and neil designed it to be that way. Can we still whip? If we can, get a Islam missionary out of Tokyo ASAP, because soon it will be Hatty's. We are going to need a monstrous stack of highly promoted archers/longbowmen/riflemen in Kyoto to absorb wave after wave after wave, but Kyoto is designed to allow for this.
Get peace at any cost short of a city with Hammy, so we can build up our forces and defenses and then go smack Hammy.

I think that's probably right, at least in the east. We have one wildcard up our sleeve: that spare GG in Bolly. Do we have an archer with Guerilla2 or City Garrison2? If so, we could warlord it and get CG3 plus Guer2, and with just one more XP (to get to 26) add Guer3. It's just a 3-strength archer, but fortified in a hill city defended by a river that's 75(CG) +75(G3) +50(archer in city) +50(hill) +25(river) +25(fortify) = +300% defense, or strength 12. Throw in some walls, which will be bombarded away, and that gives time for the unit to settle in. If he can survive until we get longbows we'll be untouchable.

AAA's other points: No, we can't whip Tokyo yet--I think it was another 3 turns, and we'd need a 2-pop whip for an Islamic missionary (I think we only have pop 3 at the moment). So that's a long shot, but if we can hold that long it's a very good idea. With Hammy, I'm not sure what to do. We're in decent shape up there for defense, particularly if we get a couple more spears, but Vijay is not a particularly good defensive spot apart from being a chokepoint. I think we should try to plant a city farther up in that unexplored gap and/or plan to take Babylon (the city), which is probably another chokepoint. Yes, that's probably being a bit ambitious, but it may be necessary. We could really use some spies to scope things out. So yes, maybe getting peace ASAP with Hammy is a good idea. I'd hold off for at least another turn with Toku to see what Hatty does and hope we have enough time to infect Tokyo.

 

[vra379971]

At this point I'd favor someone playing just one turn to see what Hatty does, because I don't see conjecture getting us any further at this point.

I would combine our stack to the South of Tokyo, keeping the River at our backs on the road tile.

Then, move GG to Kyoto for archer and wait in case.

 

[ChrisShaffer]

At this point I'd favor someone playing just one turn to see what Hatty does, because I don't see conjecture getting us any further at this point.

I would combine our stack to the South of Tokyo, keeping the River at our backs on the road tile.

Then, move GG to Kyoto for archer and wait in case.

Agreed.

 

[Xcalibrator]

Yes, everything hinges on whether or not Hatty is going to attack us. And after reconsidering my complicated ploy, I agree a simple retreat is best after all. If she does attack us, she'll only be able to move chariots into the city this coming turn, and we can counterattack with cats and axes. If she moves in the rest of her units the next turn, we can attack again. (Or we could just let her have the city and run away. But I'd like to hurt her if we can get a good kill ratio.)

Even playing this single turn, though, requires a PPP. The tile S of Tokyo can be roaded in 1 turn if I remember correctly; can we get a worker there quickly? Send the two missionaries east. I'd move one of our Woody2 axes into the forest NE of Kago and move the other toward Kyoto. We also need to agree on where to settle the island city, etc.

 

[vra379971]

I'd vote to not kill her even if she does attack. Our troops are worth far more than hers. Maces will do that later if need be.

Island city settle....if we're pushing for two cities, then whatever one is easier to defend and is productive/bigger faster.

 

[Trystero]

Even playing this single turn, though, requires a PPP. The tile S of Tokyo can be roaded in 1 turn if I remember correctly; can we get a worker there quickly? Send the two missionaries east. I'd move one of our Woody2 axes into the forest NE of Kago and move the other toward Kyoto. We also need to agree on where to settle the island city, etc.

If no one objects, I would like to play one last turn to tidy things up, and then hand off to the next player (I think I left some unit moves queued, etc.). I'm pretty familiar with the current situation (except that artist in Holy Cow ), at least.

Besides the issues mentioned, should decide if we want to switch civics to whip an archer or other unit in Kyoto.

I don't think we have any workers that could reach Tokyo in less than 2 or 3 turns, but I would have to check.

 

[Xcalibrator]

I really think we need to sort out some issues before playing even this single turn. Shall we try to get peace with Hammy? What are we willing to offer? We should switch Kyoto to walls in preparation for emergency whipping. I lean toward no civics changes this turn but this also needs discussion. I'd site the city where the island settler is now and pasture the cows sheep while starting on Moai (or maybe granary?). Etc... Not sure I'll have time tonight to even come up with a complete list of what to decide. Maybe you should just tell us what you have in mind to do, Trys, since you're most familiar with the current situation and then we can refine the plan if necessary.

 

[SteelHorse]

I'm not clear on which stack you're referring to. All I recall is a lone axe west of our two stacks and two units in Kago.
Yikes!

This refers to the Hammy stack in the north of 4HA+Cat+Spear+Axe+Chariot just outside of Vijay.

I doubt we could hold Tokyo, too many Cats + Chariots against what is mostly injured Axes and Cats. Odds not in our favor. I would prefer to heal and defend a very strategic
Kyoto. If we can get the missionary there great, but not worth losing the army over.

I think we need slavery to get some things done in the cities. Otherwise we have to live with what have on board. Whip Walls in Kyoto for example - there are 5 there. Another spear in Vijay would be nice as well. And a couple of missionaries would be nice.

 

[Trystero]

OK - Here is what I would propose:

Try to make peace with Hammy: offer CoL, and if not that, Theology.

Make peace with Toku. (the increased tech stealing cost is probably from a counter-espionage mission. We caught or have been hit by several spies, some likely from Toku)

Move the stack 1E of Tokyo 1SW (to 1S of Tokyo). Move our spearman and super-medic from Tokyo to 1S. Leave the lone archer to garrison Tokyo, in case Hatty doesn't attack.

Move the stack already 1S of Tokyo 1S (to 2S of Tokyo).

Move axes south of Osaka to Kyoto.

Send GG from Bollywood to Kyoto for super-archer.

Wait on switch from CS to Slavery until next turn (see what Hatty does...).

Switch build in Kyoto to walls in case we need to whip them.

Finish courthouse in Drona, then whip cat or archer (if Hatty DoW).

Finish cat in Holy Cow, move it to Kyoto, whip archer for Kyoto (if needed).

The 2 cats near Bombay continue toward Vijay.

Hindu missionary 3 continues moving toward Osaka, and possibly Tokyo. Hindu missionary 4 moves from Bollywood toward Kyoto. (If we lose Tokyo, we will spread Hinduism to Osaka and Kyoto).

Settle island city where the settler is now. Lose the whales (Optics is a ways off), but gain a hill. Move worker to pasture sheep.

Keep our research at 0%, and stay on Paper for now.

Click next turn and see what happens.

 

[kcd_swede]

OK - Here is what I would propose:

Try to make peace with Hammy: offer CoL, and if not that, Theology.

Make peace with Toku. (the increased tech stealing cost is probably from a counter-espionage mission. We caught or have been hit by several spies, some likely from Toku)

Move the stack 1E of Tokyo 1SW (to 1S of Tokyo). Move our spearman and super-medic from Tokyo to 1S. Leave the lone archer to garrison Tokyo, in case Hatty doesn't attack.

Move the stack already 1S of Tokyo 1S (to 2S of Tokyo).

Move axes south of Osaka to Kyoto.

Send GG from Bollywood to Kyoto for super-archer.

Wait on switch from CS to Slavery until next turn (see what Hatty does...).

Switch build in Kyoto to walls in case we need to whip them.

Finish courthouse in Drona, then whip cat or archer (if Hatty DoW).

Finish cat in Holy Cow, move it to Kyoto, whip archer for Kyoto (if needed).

The 2 cats near Bombay continue toward Vijay.

Hindu missionary 3 continues moving toward Osaka, and possibly Tokyo. Hindu missionary 4 moves from Bollywood toward Kyoto. (If we lose Tokyo, we will spread Hinduism to Osaka and Kyoto).

Settle island city where the settler is now. Lose the whales (Optics is a ways off), but gain a hill. Move worker to pasture sheep.

Keep our research at 0%, and stay on Paper for now.

Click next turn and see what happens.

One other thing I'd like for you to do. Get Hatty on the phone. Tell her we demand 10 gold in tribute. He'll probably refuse - but the -1 diplo hit there isn't much to worry about at this point compared to -6 this war spoils our relation. It can't affect his war target in any case. In the unlikely event that he accepts, we will have 10t forced peace during which he cannot declare war on us. That would change the entire complexion of the next turnset.

Definitely worth a shot, imo.

 

[Xcalibrator]

One other thing I'd like for you to do. Get Hatty on the phone. Tell her we demand 10 gold in tribute. He'll probably refuse - but the -1 diplo hit there isn't much to worry about at this point compared to -6 this war spoils our relation. It can't affect his war target in any case. In the unlikely event that he accepts, we will have 10t forced peace during which he cannot declare war on us. That would change the entire complexion of the next turnset.

Definitely worth a shot, imo.

I'll have to remember that trick, whether it works or not. Trys, thanks for laying out the plan--it looks good. I'd recommend making some notes about order: (0) Do not move any units until we see what happens with (1) and (2); (1) Demand the gold from Hatty--In the unlikely event she agrees, stop, rejoice, and report!; (2) try to get peace from Hammy; (3) get peace from Toku. (4) If you've gotten this far, we are expecting an attack from Hatty next turn; move units and adjust builds accordingly.

If Hammy won't give peace except for Vijay then we're going to need some spears--put Bolly on that? Building spears+archers in Drona to defend Kyoto might also be better than cats+archers; our axes will defend pretty well against everything but chariots. Also, run artists in the island city and Kyoto. Oh, and if you're sure Toku can't get to Kyoto IBT, I see no point in leaving any unit to die defending it.

Let's get any other comments quickly so we can give Trys a green light for tonight.

 

[ChrisShaffer]

green

 

[Xcalibrator]

Actually, I wonder if we want to hold off on peace with Toku, just on the off chance that Hatty doesn't attack us. It would give us more time to get missionaries on the scene, and if Hatty attacks Toku instead of us (even if she rejects our demand), then we'd have a chance to capture another of Toku's cities (and then infect it). I think the only harm in waiting is that if Hatty DoWs us, Toku might give us less for peace or even demand something from us (although we should be able to buy him off with a tech, which he couldn't trade away, so maybe that's not so bad). I'm just worried that if we make peace with Toku and Hatty then attacks him (yes, quite unlikely), we'll have missed some important opportunities. What do you think?

 

[kcd_swede]

Actually, I wonder if we want to hold off on peace with Toku, just on the off chance that Hatty doesn't attack us. It would give us more time to get missionaries on the scene, and if Hatty attacks Toku instead of us (even if she rejects our demand), then we'd have a chance to capture another of Toku's cities (and then infect it). I think the only harm in waiting is that if Hatty DoWs us, Toku might give us less for peace or even demand something from us (although we should be able to buy him off with a tech, which he couldn't trade away, so maybe that's not so bad). I'm just worried that if we make peace with Toku and Hatty then attacks him (yes, quite unlikely), we'll have missed some important opportunities. What do you think?

Timing of peace with Toku probably not a big issue, either way. I agree to whatever you guys decide on that.

Green.

 

[vra379971]

Hold off on peace then.

Green.